House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

I lost my patience because you have recently been misquoting and mischaracterising me for some unknown reason. I apologise. Please engage in the arguments and not give a false impression of what I say.

Anyway, I've put the postcode in now @XVGN and it still shows a rise of over 35% from 2006 to 2024 (much more if you use 2002 as the starting point of course) so my point remains.

So strange how you warn people not to accept the opinions of people on the internet apart from when you or one of your mates are talking about the likelihood of house prices significantly falling or interest rates not falling - then you seem happy to let their opinions stay without warning people not to blindly accept them!

We've just established I didn't give a false impression of what you said. I failed to see the postcode that is true. But I easily admitted to my mistake and then checked what you said against the postcode and the postcode was no anomaly - house prices in that part of the country have generally risen over 35% so the example you posted was an unusual property for reasons we don't know.

I wish you would stop making it personal @XVGN we can have different opinions without you losing "patience" each time I make a point that contradicts yours.

Graceful as ever Twiggers? No risk of an apology from you. Just more ducking and diving.

You seem to have trouble understanding the difference between specific and general. I gave a specific case that demonstrated that you CANNOT bank on a price rising in 10 years. If you overpay at the wrong time then you can be stuck waiting 20 years or more for the price to recover. This is important information to someone new to buying homes.

Why should I be graceful when you have just called me an idiot?

It doesn't actually matter what you say because others can see which one of us uses childish insults in debates.

You must think people new to buying homes are idiots too if you think they can't work out that when people make a general point about house prices rising in the long term they don't understand that there will be some exceptions to the rule such as when a house ends up derelict for example. The FTBs I have engaged with on Mumsnet seem a lot more clued up than that.

Why do you think that the FCA insist on financial advertisers include warnings about the guarantee of future returns?

Because nothing is certain in life but death and taxes and even the latter can be evaded if you're rich enough.

No. It's because there is a vulnerable section of society that will believe things that may not be true. There is no presumption of consumers being"clued-up".

But vulnerable people could also be influenced by the insistence of certain Mumsnet users in the past that house prices were going to crash hugely between 2022 - 2025 or that the base rate wouldn't reduce in 2024 (you said anyone hoping for this was whistling in the wind).

We don't preface everything we say on here with a warning that it's just our opinion or that predictions re house falls/rises won't be true in 100% of cases.

I don't recall saying that anyone hoping for a base rate reduction was whistling in the wind. Please point me towards the offending post. I will own it if you do. If not then I expect another apology for misquoting me yet again. I do recall saying that I had no idea if rates would be higher or lower.

I have no idea why you are so obsessed. One person said you can bank on prices being higher in 10 years time. One person said you cannot and gave evidence. Which message would the FCA approve if we were both house sellers and they were validating our messages?

Wow that’s going to take some time to uncover a post you have no recollection of but I will try to find it when I have time. Is it a phrase you would use, whistling in the wind? I would have expected you to recognise the phrase but fair enough you don’t so the onus is on me to find it.

It's easier just to apologise.

Just in case anyone makes the mistake of believing what Twiggers says people have said or asked .....

I did get the wording slightly wrong @XVGN because you didn't say anyone hoping for a reduction in the base rate in 24 is whistling in the wind, you said on 8th November 23 that anyone banking on a cut in base rates is whistling in the wind.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4924490-6-mortgage-rates-trouble-aht-mill?page=5

The key word here is banking, i.e. guaranteeing, just like the last discussion. I was advising people not to bank on it happening. It might - it might not. Have you mischaracterised my posts yet again?

This is so tedious - you were saying don't bank on the base rate falling in 2024 as "it'll only happen in the next year if the BoE fears a big recession"...

The BoE don't think we are in a big recession but they reduced it anyway, as they were widely expected to do amongst mainstream economists and analysts.

You weren't worrying about vulnerable FTBs then, potentially locking into higher fixed rate mortgages than they needed to because of fears that the base rate would only fall if a big recession was looming.

My main point is, we are all allowed to express our opinions on here without worrying about vulnerable FTBs potentially taking opinions as facts.

There seems to be a very strange obsession with HPC forum by a couple of posters on here. I have never used the forum so don't know what they say.

However, people stating that they know for certain the timing of world economic events or exactly what will happen to asset prices are nearly always wrong and ill informed. Even top analysts talk about directions and probabilities. These sort of comments can also give false reassurance to some which I think is an unfair and potentially dangerous thing to do.
The truth is that there have certainly been better or worse times to buy in general, even restricting ourselves to the last 40 years or so. 1989 was a market peak, for example, whereas 1995 was a low, ditto pre and post GFC falls. There may well be another significant fall over the next few years and the same will apply.

I think @XVGN has been trying to issue similar warnings/ more balance to counter similar statements of 'house prices only ever go up'.

There seems to be both a degree of misunderstanding by some posters about the nuances of these countering statements and a rude dismissal of those who disagree, followed by false accusations about HPC. Some people have far too much time on their hands and don't use it wisely!

Fight fight!!! Lol

@XVGN what is your agenda? Are you from the HPC forums?

Thanks for proving my point yet again @Lm1981.

Not sure I follow your point.

See earlier posts.

To call out false statements, e.g.

• house prices are rising everywhere
• house prices are falling everywhere
• prices are guaranteed to be higher in ten years time ("you can bank on it")
• the market is dead
• around my way everything sells in days
• I want to know your post code