House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Thank you - not much of an annual price change was it? Considering the economic climate.

I’ve just had a quick look, sure there will be lots of interesting detail in there.

25 mins later. Rueters (a proper news organisation) has reported on this. BBC (something we have to pay for) has nothing. It has about 6 stories on its main page which have limited impact on the wider population, but steadfastly seems to refuse to report a news story impacting far more people. Sorry @Twiglets1 I'll have to claim this bet.

I will concede this bet as long as the BBC hasn’t reported on it by the end of today.

Well, yeah, I'm not really comfortable with that. Last month, a few hours later, they slipped in a small incomplete report into the "Live" feed on inflation. I will only concede the bet if the BBC publish a standalone article on house prices in the main top section of the BBC news home page before the end of the day.

This is what proper home data looks like. Split by Region and Home Type, with arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median values, so that no one gets fooled by data manipulation.

https://otta.property/trends

The bet was only that the BBC will report it @XVGN

Let’s wait to see in what form they do report it today (if at all) and if it’s not very visible I will concede

This is where Kevin buried it today.

Although the very partial and incomplete Nationwide index got a full article on 1st March

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68445223

I'm not disputing the fact that they aren't making much of the ONS data @XVGN but I'm just curious as to the reason why you think the BBC has an agenda to keep quiet about it?

It seems to me the latest data published by the ONS is largely encouraging for the government or anyone who wants to believe that the house price crash/collapse predictions were wildly exaggerated. So if the BBC are part of the establishment, why would they want to hide this report?

I'm not an anti-establishment conspiraloon, but generally intrigued about the BBC's motivations. Why are they deliberately burying the official information but happy to broadcast and advertise the selected data from a company?

Why do established news organisations repeatedly publish reports on the official data but the BBC - who pretend to be a news organisation - don't?

As you say, the data is hardly earth-shattering. I think that they are just being very obstinate. They hate being challenged (see their defensive replies on the weekly Newswatch programme). They hate being told that hey are not doing their job properly. I love reminding them every month.

I’m sure you do love reminding them every month 😂

House prices certainly haven't dropped here in the SW - estate agents are busy and asking prices are pretty much achieved.
If anything they are creeping up a bit.

What part of the SW?

In Devon, Flats are flat while Terraced, semi's and Detached are all down (see the link I posted earlier)

I can only go on what I have been observing and conversations with my agent. Somerset/Dorset borders.
I've been outbid on several properties unfortunately.

No skin in the game- I would love prices to come down.

Everything is flat or down in Somerset and Dorset apart from Somerset Detached which are up.

These are completed prices listed on LR so impossible to say for current prices.

Well there you have it!

What would be your guess as to why they are not reporting the official data, or just burying it, when other news organisations report it religiously? 4 months now.

I know that I have to give you to midnight but I think that we can be pretty sure that they are not going to produce an article.

Anyway, I'll submit my monthly complaint tomorrow and ask why Reuters have reported it the last 4 months but BBC have not. I'll remind them that I gave them a heads up 2 days prior. I'll ask how the celebrity stories are deemed more important given their own criteria below.

"Factors such as whether it is news that has just come in and needs immediate coverage, how unusual the story is and how much national interest there is in the subject matter will all play a part in deciding the level of coverage and where it falls on the site."

Let's just quickly capture all those really important and time-sensitive stories that took priority over UK House Prices.

I have no idea @XVGN

Interesting

so no crash then. Just a small reduction like
most of us expected.

Yes after all that, not much of a reduction over the last 12 months at all. Some people will no doubt say the effects aren't visible yet, but they should be if prices started crashing at some point in 2022 or even 23.

Yes after all that, not much of a reduction over the last 12 months at all. Some people will no doubt say the effects aren't visible yet, but they should be if prices started crashing at some point in 2022 or even 23.

Prices peaked in July 2022

During the 1990s "crash" it took 4 years (1989 - 1993) for the prices to go from peak to bottom, we're not even 2 years from peak yet.

Plus in the 90s the interest rate changes on your mortgage were immediate, there's still 100s of thousands of mortgages still at lower rates which haven't gone up yet, and yet prices are already affected.