House prices

[Twiglets1]

Hi Guys, we got to the end of the last thread so need another one on this controversial topic!

And to respond to @CrashyTime I don't say "demand is strong" over and over again. In fact, I rarely comment on demand at all. My posts are more focussed on house prices and interest rates/mortgage rates.

And I don't deny economic "reality", I just don't exaggerate how bad the house price correction is likely to be. I have a running bet with @XVGN that property prices generally will fall about 5% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024 so I do believe prices are falling in most areas. Just nothing like the 30-35% crash predicted by some!

Well aren't I the stupid smart arse?

Nonetheless, I think I need to do some work on quarterly figures which are apparently more reliable.

Oh and on Northumberland, my other half is of the opinion that it's full of offshore, absolutely loaded oil workers.

I looked at a few flats in converted mansions and stately homes there, toying with the idea of living somewhere fancy and never having to do any gardening again. We are talking 400k for an 11-1300 sq ft flat.

I don't know much about the county but I do know it has almost nothing in terms of cities and big towns, and very few people live there when compared to other counties.

Until someone tells me otherwise, his idea is the only one that makes sense to me. Or it's the lack of houses for sale that pushes up prices?

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4993616-i-downloaded-the-house-price-data-for-four-counties-in-england-nov-22-vs-nov-23-heres-the-results-of-house-price-fallsgains?reply=132726378

I keep thinking of Darren Degan when I see economists quotes (honest money on YouTube). He said something along the lines of: I followed a bunch of economists for ten years because I was thinking of buying a house/moving/investments and the only thing I can reliably say about their predictions is that I consistently observed them to be completely wrong 👀

Sorry I don't remember which video he said it on.

@KievLoverTwo I don't know Northumberland at all. Overall, the prices there are not high compared to other areas but they haven't fallen in the same way that they have nearly everywhere else. Perhaps lots of people with money have moved to the area, I've no idea.

I agree that Twitter can be a pain to get used to. There are some very interesting analysts on there and YouTube.

Yes, they are mostly totally wrong!

A bit like active fund managers. Hardly any of them are able to beat a basic passive index tracker. You're just throwing money down the drain investing with them.

@NewFriendlyLadybird we are going to list at £395k, thank you. And to all those who also advised! We have seen a house that we really like and has so much potential. There are other non proceedable offers on it so we want to get ours sold tbh

Good Luck @Mover2024!

Thank you @Twiglets1! ☺️

Would you recommend waiting until under offer ourselves to make an offer? As the EA said there are two offers but not proceedable as haven't sold yet so I don't really see there being a point making an offer without a buyer ourselves?

Also, when making an offer, I'm thinking to email EA with MIP, confirm sols are lined up and to explain the basis of the offer by reference to nearby sold prices and builders quotes to get the house up to scratch (e.g. cost of getting new ceiling in kitchen as it's flammable and needs changing! Would want to do a kitchen extension reno eventually anyway). Then follow up with a call? Our first time buying an old house so thinking how to navigate it!

Yes I would recommend waiting until you are under offer yourself to make an offer because at that point the owners would take you more seriously even if your offer was slightly below the others.

I actually have never bothered giving all those details at the offer stage, (and I've moved house a lot) though I know some people on Mumsnet feel you should.

We've always just phoned the EA to give our offer and answer any questions they put to us. We don't employ a solicitor until our offer has been accepted. But once the offer is accepted, we don't hang about but immediately get on with phoning around to get solicitor quotes and will instruct one within about 24 hours of our offer being accepted.

Thanks @Twiglets1, thought as much. Not proceedable if we don't have an offer ourselves. That's why we've decided to price to sell as we really like this house. Hopefully ours goes quickly and then we can make an offer. One of the others is a flat in London so think that may struggle to sell at this time

Also @Twiglets1 - there is a steel framed garage in the garden that is 600 sq ft. The EA has included this square footage in the house but when we went on the viewing said we could literally take it down with a hammer etc.

I would be worried that the bank would downvalue the house on that basis as I cannot see how it can be included in the square footage of the house?!

@Mover2024 Ultimately you need to offer what you think it’s worth and hope that the vendor agrees.. as a seller I wouldn’t want to get into a back and forth discussion about why a buyer is offering XYZ - it’s a case of you doing that assessment along with your own affordability, and putting that forward to the seller. They’ll either find it palatable or they won’t. What as a seller I wouldn’t want however is a buyer “critiquing” the property like this and giving a list of its flaws whilst also trying to do the deal. I speak from recent experience - maintain as much goodwill as possible!

@ibelieveinmirrorballs thank you. It's true. The vendor sadly died so the property is now in private and the two children and handling the sale. Apparently they are very keen to get asking so could be difficult

Stick to your guns re what you think is reasonable - you held be foolish in most areas to think they’ll get asking price I’d say.

In probate*

I agree. Equally, I think they are in no rush as they have nothing riding on the sale 😅

I think the EA has been very cheeky in adding the square footage of that garage. BUT I also agree with @ibelieveinmirrorballs that it's not worth mentioning to the sellers when you make your offer. Just offer what you think it's worth compared to other local properties.

They may be keen to get asking price but they will have to accept the realities of a buyers market and negotiate on price in all likelihood. Unless the house is in a particularly desirable area which (to be fair) it may be if they have already received 2 offers on it albeit from people who are non proceedable.

The asking price is £670k. Do you think an offer of £630k is cheeky? @Twiglets1

No I don’t.

But they may not be willing to accept an offer from you until your own house is under offer.

@Twiglets1 - thanks. Won't be making an offer until we're under offer as we think it's pointless

The markets (market participants) are betting that the FED will crumble to media/political pressure who`s ranks will be filled with people up to their necks in property debt (as will many market players who have already had their backsides handed to them on commercial property) the markets will change their bets at a minutes notice if the FED holds their ground or hikes further. The geopolitical situation is not looking good for less inflation/less rate hikes as you mentioned yourself in an earlier post, it is looking like more disruption, more volatility in credit markets.

House prices rose last month as falling mortgage rates increased the number of potential buyers, according to an industry survey. Property values increased by 1.3pc in January compared to the previous month, according to the Halifax house price index.

It was the fourth monthly gain in a row after six consecutive falls before that.
The survey found that average house prices increased to £291,029, which was £3,900 more than last month. Compared to the same month last year, property prices grew by 2.5pc, which was the highest annual growth since January 2023.

Halifax Mortgages director Kim Kinnaird said: “The recent reduction of mortgage rates from lenders as competition picks up, alongside fading inflationary pressures and a still-resilient labour market has contributed to increased confidence among buyers and sellers.
“This has resulted in a positive start to 2024’s housing market.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/07/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-house-prices-rates-barratt/

Massive drop for the South East - 9k gone in a month !!
This is becoming very different in different regions now. Northern Ireland up over 5% :)

"The South East fell the most last month when compared to other UK regions, with homes selling for an average £379,220 (-2.3%), a drop of £8,866."

I notice the media seemingly avoiding mentioning this again...