House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

I know, hence I said in my last sentence that "I do appreciate that not everyone has the luxury of choice".

You're buying a house yourself aren't you? There are good reasons to do so for people who are settled in an area and can afford it.

@NoWordForFluffy I don’t think anyone on this thread thinks it’s as easy as that - the high price of housing is a horrendous burden for those trying to plan for their future. But that’s a different argument to the one made in this thread on occasion that those people choosing to get mortgages and be home owners are “gullible idiots LOL” hoodwinked by The System <adjusts tinfoil hat>

Yeah. I bought years ago, then needed the money to pay for my professional training, so came off the ladder. Now finally getting back on it. It's not my first rodeo!

I know there are good reasons to do it, but in this climate, it's not as simple as saying that people should just do it, when many simply can't.

Oh yeah. I don't agree with that sentiment at all.

Exactly - it's a different argument.

Just because a person doesn't believe there will be a house price crash, it doesn't mean they are unsympathetic to the fact that young people living at home or renting would benefit from a house price crash. I can entirely understand why they want one, I just don't see it happening.

I don't think it's solely a 'young people' issue either, to be honest. There are people of all ages stuck in the rent trap.

No one is saying that people should just do it.

My personal opinion is that it's better to buy than rent if you can afford to and if you are settled in an area but that doesn't mean I think everyone can afford it. Obviously they can't and never could, even when property was a lot more affordable than it is today for people trying to get on the ladder.

I acknowledge that it is extremely hard these days and almost impossible in some areas without the help that not everyone gets from the Bank of Mum & Dad.

The Halifax are today reporting the South East falls are getting quite significant. The average fall being almost as high as the average (post tax) young persons wage.

"property prices in the South East fell most sharply when compared to other UK regions over the last year (-5.7%) to £373,943, a drop of -£22,702."

I think the falls in 2024 are likley to be considerably more. The question I have though - is the South East a leading indicator of what is still to come in (what are at the moment) the other better performing regions ? Historically that has been the trend - but with WFH becoming so much more accessible I'm not sure it will be this time around ?

I posted some data from the Halifax on the previous page btw, as reported in the Telegraph.

Prices fell 5.7% in the South East on an annual basis
They fell 3.8% in London
They fell 1.5% in Wales
They were "resilient" in Scotland, according to the article
They rose by 2.3% in Northern Ireland

I was a bit surprised London didn't see the biggest falls being the most expensive area and one very affected by the rise in wfh.

Some areas in the south east saw some of the largest percentage rises during Covid. We bought there this year and according to the Natiowide price index prices peaked in Q3 2022 - which makes sense as that reflects sales agreed around 6 months earlier. The index shows a drop of 5.7% since then but still 22% higher than 2019. It’s quite an interesting tool as you can compare with what a property last sold for going back to 1973.
https://www.nationwide.co.uk/house-price-index

Well, well, well .. this isn't going to help SE house prices. Adur (Southwick/Shoreham/Lancing) determined to be least happiest place in UK by ONS. Very strange when you consider all the other candidates in the UK.

It is pretty funny that the local rag - as awful as ever - prints a photo of Newhaven in the article.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23971482.miserable-place-uk-sussex-ons-reveals/#comments-anchor

I won’t post a link sorry as would be outing. It was East Sussex not Worthing though.

I also think the £1m market is more niche. I’d expect those to stick. The £500-600 market is where we are trying and failing to buy.

Even for those with a choice, not always do people want to buy. My late grandparents house in Bishop Auckland sells for about £115k I think today, 3 or 4 beds, caller, terraced and with some London office jobs now only needing people in the office 2 or 3 days a week buying further away because a more possible prospect for some

Great news. Improved property listing detail mandated by Trading Standards, required now but EA's given 12mo to implement. Things required include flood risk (and other risks), planning, utilities, etc

https://www.nationaltradingstandards.uk/news/full-material-information-guidance-published/#:~:text=Part%20B%20is%20information%20that,information%20about%20utilities%20and%20parking.

Just because you "retire" it doesnt mean you dont have an income? The retirement age will be 75 soon anyway, there is a demand for that due to the COL and a lot of young people just don`t have the skills and knowledge that older folks have because they stare at a little rectangle in their hand all day, there will be plenty of opportunity for older people to earn when they are older in work let alone stock/bond markets etc.

Good news, London/SE bubble money has helped fuel bubbles all over the UK, the sooner that equity evaporates the better IMO.

Cracker of a film, the main actress was the daughter of the guy who played "Trigger" in OFAH? She actually had a big career lined up, she was offered the Pretty Woman role before JR, but MH issues took over it seems. Saw a picture of her recently and got a shock, that was until I saw a picture of BF from "Single White Female", that was truly jaw dropping, unreal change in body shape. just not recognisable at all. I suppose we all look shocking to people who last saw us as teens or 20`s, but if you are on the big screen it is magnified I think.

Goldman Sachs has urged investors to stop betting against UK property stocks as the market shows signs of recovery.
Economists at the Wall Street bank are predicting a rebound in the real estate sector as interest rate pressures ease.
This marks a reversal as Goldman had previously warned clients against investing in commercial real estate companies as valuations plummeted.
Sharon Bell of Goldman Sachs said:
The real estate market is holding up: housing prices edged up last month amid encouraging signs that mortgage rates are starting to come down.Goldman struck an optimistic tone as its economists also revealed forecasts showing interest rates will fall to 3pc by mid-2025.
In a memo to investors on Sunday, the bank said Governor Andrew Bailey is likely to announce a cut to interest rates in August before further reductions in consecutive quarters.
Ms Bell said:
UK consumer confidence also rose sharply, outperforming expectations and raising hopes of higher spending on the festive season.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/11/ftse-100-markets-news-twitter-alex-jones-uk-economy-latest/

Higher spending = Higher rates for longer.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/uk-house-prices-fell-sharply-in-december-b52588e1

You know that 1.9% statistic reported by WSJ came from Rightmove? 😂

You don't normally trust their data do you?

Your answer is that you should just keep working until you die to pay your rent?

That's assuming you can get work (there's a lot of bias already towards older employees) and assuming you're in good health. Two big assumptions for starters.

I know I sleep better at night knowing I don't have to worry about working until I drop dead to pay for a roof over my head.

Very confused articles as usual by the Telegraph. Commercial Real Estate tanked for non premium (40%+ and more for some buildings) leading to real estate funds down valuation and capital control for investors. This is entirely different from house real estate, which have barely lost few percent in nominal term and is not investable anyway other than buying the house itself, which GS has no product to sell for that market (they don’t do retail lending, or barely)

it s not your fault OP, but terrible meaningless click bait article

UK Finance - body representing banking and finance - negative for house prices.

https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/news-and-insight/press-release/mortgage-lending-fall-in-2024

CBI. Apols - I think you need to be a member to access the original report.

https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/interest-rates-wont-be-cut-until-2026-predicts-cbi/