House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

I don’t even know what a property V1 is

10 years ago! You were talking about the fall in transactions from peak to trough of this current property correction so I don’t know why you are referring to data from 10 years ago?

Well a V1 is the first attack rocket that the Nazis tried out on London and the South Coast I believe, but they kept crashing in the channel or breaking up for one reason or another, the V2 was more successful, bringing real fear to the streets of London as the whine of the rocket`s approach was heard in the night.......on the other hand a VI is a vested interest, someone who has an interest (usually financial) in promoting the benefits of a particular asset class (in your case property)

Every day's a schoolday on Mumsnet

Though I deny that I have a vested interest in supporting the property market. I only own one house that I live in so I'm not exactly a property magnate.

I think you just don't like hearing a different opinion, dear Crashy.

Lots of opinions but it will always come down to one fact….

its a supply and demand issue ….prices will never drop any meaningful amount due to this.

UK monthly property transactions

Headline statistics from the latest transactions data include:

• the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in October 2023 is 90,920, 17% lower than October 2022 and 2% lower than September 2023
• the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in October 2023 is 82,910, 21% lower than October 2022 and 3% lower than September 2023

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary

No, I was talking about lots of cheap mortgage debt available leading to more property sales and less cheap debt available leading to less property sales, that needs to be tracked over the whole life of the bubble, about 20 years, and the "supply and demand" arguments being mostly false because the people turning down the more expensive mortgage debt (or being refused by their lender) are not sleeping on the street in sleeping bags, they already live somewhere.

Did you read the Plumplot graphs? You have to relate them to the prevailing interest rate at the time and see the connection between cheap debt and house sales. It is no accident that sales take off at certain points, the stamp duty madness for example (deliberately designed to allow people "in the know", the Smart Money, to exit the market at the expense of total mugs IMO)

"Did it mention sales being down 60% from peak, LOL" - this was you, Crashy. In response to an article I posted from Rightmove predicting that average house prices will fall by 1% next year.

We weren't discussing trends from 10 years ago.

I don't have a vested interest either.

I'm done with my buying and selling, with no mortgages now.

From my experience, it's been much cheaper to buy property to live in than to rent, but of course the higher LTV you have, the better as the bank's interest is extortionate even when low.

The house I live in now would cost a fortune to rent, but it costs me £0. If I'd taken Crashy's approach then I would be financially much, much poorer.

My decisions have never been based on what the market was doing or what property was 'worth' but based on long term stability and having a home and my own affordability. (And being realistic with what I bought, initially a shit hole in a shitter area just to get on the ladder).

These decisions have turned out well, personally.

Unfortunately my friends in rented feel vulnerable and concerned, the private rental market is awful.

Interesting article about high value homes being repossessed. If true, this could impact the deeply flawed, if somewhat interesting, RM price index, if there is a flood of high value properties onto its listings.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/high-end-property-repossessions-rise-162306782.html?guccounter=1

Yes, they might have to adjust it again to try and hide this, many people made absolutely bonkers financial decisions during Covid though!

I’m in the SE on the coast.

A house we were trying to buy ended up going at £55k over its initial asking price. Another house we looked at 4 months ago was sold but the sale must have fallen through and they’ve re listed it with the exact same photos at £60k more. It feels in the £500-600k range properties are being snapped up and going over asking price.

No they didn’t , they paid the going rate for house to live in. They did what was best for their families and didn’t put their lives on hold. Whatever they paid during covid will be smaller than what the house is worth 5 - 10 years down the line.

Variable rates are falling again and even being pulled by banks, 6% nothing like likely. Variable rate offers have fallen almost 1% for us in the last 2 months. Expert opinion I would pay attention to (not internet articles) expect lower interest rate and slightly lower house prices also. Possibly interest rates have peaked and the significant market correction many hope for hasn't happened again

I follow the SE. Would you be prepared to post a link? I'd love to see how competitively it was priced.

I've been watching this seafront property in Worthing for a while. It's a lovely home in a great part of town and cheap by London standards at £1M. Not shifted in 3mo.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/139942676#/media?activePlan=1&channel=RES_BUY&id=media0

Shock - a £1M house hasn’t sold in less than 3 months.

Why are you comparing it to London when it’s in Worthing?

And it looks a bit desperate when people post data on individual properties to try to make a general point about the state of the housing market. You don’t see me doing it with properties that sell fast & I’m the one accused of having a vested interest in portraying the market a certain way 🤷🏼‍♀️

An anecdotal in response to an anecdotal.

Because Worthing is in prime London commuter territory and exactly the sort of property that someone selling a £1.5M terrace in an average well-to-do London street may aspire to.

I have never accused you of being a VI. And you know that I typically discuss the macro. Anyway, who are you to judge what people may find interesting on a house price forum? LOL.

Touché re what people may find interesting but it does look desperate and quite a few of you do it who want to present the market in a certain way, all doom & gloom.

I know you weren’t the one who made the actual accusation but you’ve implied it before. Anyway, my main point was, I never do it and I easily could but it’s so pointless to link to individual properties. Not statistically meaningful at all.

Would someone selling a £1.5M property in London really aspire to a £1M property in Worthing? Probably not, in my opinion. It’s a fine property in its own right though and I don’t doubt it will sell within the next few months.

I appreciate the catch. Thanks.

Falling prices are not doom and gloom. That's a odd position to take. It's hard for some and great for others.

I don't think you are a VI. I think that you have a pretty normal/regular view of the market.

I never claimed statistical meaning. You know I use the macro for that.

I'm just pointing out that the property is very affordable for some people selling in London. It's not a large sum in comparison. Sell your £1.5M pad, get a better property by the sea, and have half a million left over.

I don’t think it’s an odd position to take, like you say there are winners and losers in both situations. I actually feel a lot of sympathy for people struggling to get on the housing market but the relentless over exaggeration of the state of the property market on this forum is a little wearing sometimes.

I agree I hold pretty normal, mainstream views. I’m often surprised at the reaction they get on here.

Can you link so we can look with PropertyLog?

Looks like this is their main competition, slightly higher price, much better house it looks like, but the colour scheme is a bit wild LOL. I think people in Worthing have been watching too many property shows back in the day TBH, I noticed actually that an episode of "House Doctor" from 2005 was showing late at night last night, WTF is that all about, do deluded sellers lie in the wee hours dreaming of the glory days before the Ponzi really got going and they became "millionaires" (on paper, for a while) Wasn`t Worthing where they filmed that great little movie "Wish You Were Here"?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/140169320#/?channel=RES_BUY

"it’s so pointless to link to individual properties. Not statistically meaningful at all."

It shows the sentiment of that seller, and if you use PropertyLog on "similar" houses in the area you get a feel for the sentiment in the area, and then add Plumplot regional statistics and you get a feel for wider sentiment and a feel for how much sales have dropped as property debt gets more expensive. Using your analogy looking at headline stats and averages is also pointless because they are skewed by a smaller number of more expensive houses selling (someone posted yesterday though that there are more and more expensive houses having to drop their price, so the VI "averages" might show big drops soon? (if they publish them) the average person trying to sell a house won`t get anywhere near these prices now that mortgage debt is priced at more historically normal rates.