House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/house-prices-by-region.html

That source doesn't say that house sales are down 60% from Peak?

The data it does show mainly seems to relate to new build property prices anyway

Not true where I am in the NW. A 10% deposit would most likely mean that your mortgage would be above the rental price, or certainly no cheaper. Plus you have the burden of the repairs etc as an owner.

Doesn't even record asking prices - just initial asking prices prior to subsequent reductions. At this point, no one should be the least bit interested in RM forecasts.

It’s not really for you to tell people what they should be interested in though.

Some people will find the forecast interesting and others won’t 🤷🏼‍♀️

You're right. I just get frustrated when data gets trotted out w/o the caveats that should be displayed loud and proud.

If you look at it it shows New Build stats separate from more general stats? I think sales hit 100k a month in 2020 and 2007 ( just before the crash and subsequent mental attempt to stop price discovery by reducing rates to zero, which has caused even more damaging fallout for ordinary people) I think they are at about 40k a month at the moment?

It is good that posters point out not so useful info though? I think your reliance on "experts" in the MSM is a hinderance to your overall market outlook, but I am happy if you or others disagree with this stance, IMO "just initial asking prices prior to subsequent reductions" is of little value in working out what is going on in the UK property market at present.

It’s fair to point out caveats, just not to tell people they shouldn’t be interested in things just because you aren’t interested in them

You’re entitled to your opinion of course and I get my outlook from many different sources not just one or two.

Fair point, but VI tripe is VI tripe, you shouldn`t encourage the more financially challenged to believe in data that is just lying to them so they will keep taking out mortgage loans.

There’s a massive amount of data in the link you posted Crashy - please could you provide a screenshot or something to the part that says sales hit 100k a month in 2020?
( not really interested in 2007 because that is not the “peak to trough” period currently under consideration).

You click on "sales" and look at the graph, it is very simple. Sales volumes are WAY down in every region, it is almost laughable how obvious it is that prices have to drop, but there are still sections of the media and public that won`t accept it.

I don’t know why you won’t just show the relevant data. I don’t doubt that sales volumes are down, the bit I struggle with is 60% down. I’m not sure if you are suggesting that is across the board or just in one region?

I will provide a link to relevant data later that does not support your assertion re 60% reduction in property transactions. Can’t right now as on my mobile.

I have linked to the data, you just need to click on "sales" and the graph pops up, scroll down to the bottom of the page that pops up, whether this data is sound or not is open to debate, but what it shows is property sales WAY down on previous highs.

Does it show 60% down in every region though which is what you claimed?

Why don`t you click on it and look? That is why I posted the link, so people can DTOR. As I said there may be debate on whether it is accurate or not but as pointed out by more than a few posters the stuff you are posting is little more than mortgage advertising, not the sort of thing that serious investors or property market watchers would take even remotely seriously.

Well the regions I looked at did not show a 60% fall so I can only assume you have cherry picked one region?

What regions did you look at, and what was the peak number, and the lowest point number? My view is that any way you want to dress it up base rate at 5%+ is a bubble popper, the market we have now was grown on stupidly low borrowing rates and can`t survive normal rates as shown by the stats I am quoting at you.

I looked at the SE region as an example.It said there were about 87,000 property transactions over the previous 12 months. It said sales have dropped by 32.6% in the previous 12 months.
Where did you get a 60% fall in property transactions from?

Some are worse than 60%, some are better. I'd imagine 60% is an average.

I haven’t found any at 60% yet let alone worse than 60%.
Even London is nowhere near that high & I thought London was the area most affected by the fall in property transactions.

In 2021, the East Mids had 110k house sales. So far in 2023 it's just under 40k. As one example.

South east, 200k vs about 60k.

I know what you are saying, you are trying to average it out so it doesnt look so bad, fair enough, you are obviously a property VI and have been called out on that by numerous posters, I am being very open in that I think basic property should be affordable to buy by anyone that works and contributes to society and the tax take, not a Ponzi scheme for the enrichment of bankers and people that bought a house 40 years ago and now fancy cashing in off the backs of new mortgage borrowers so they can have a few holidays and a small flat to see their retirement out in plus a lump sum left over to stick in a high interest account. The way I am looking at it is month by month, this month ten years ago 120k properties sold per month, today it is 40k properties per month, that is the drop and the drop is caused by tightening borrowing costs, the lead up to the present drop isnt important to me, that just reflects the slow tightening of the interest rates screw.