House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

@XVGN but you know absolutely nobody looks at a house in a commuter town’s value as compared to an equivalent in London - it would be amazing for those of us selling in those towns that attract DFLs if it worked like that but it doesn’t. There are no doubt hundreds of £1m+ lovely houses in the coast on good commute lines which aren’t selling because they are not competitively priced for their location.

.

Looking at headline stats & averages is nothing like looking at an individual house and thinking that can tell you anything at all about the property market @CrashyTime

The former is of limited value admittedly as you do need to look beyond just the headlines & averages to research your own area as I would encourage anyone to do. But they do at least give a sense of general trends - mortgage rates currently falling rather than rising as one example.

The latter is of no value whatsoever in understanding the property market because it’s just one house.

Worthing is really boring. If I had a million to spend, I could find somewhere really amazing in Brighton or Hove. Maybe Lewes.

Mortgage rates are at their highest in nearly 15 years, you do like trying to spin things don`t you! That is a LOT of cheap debt that is now not so cheap debt, THAT is the major trend at the moment, what is the point of diving into mortgage debt with house prices at these levels only to be caught out if there is another inflation surge?

The point is secure housing.

You'd be spending more on rent, anyway.

@CrashyTime you've been told before about the huge lags on land registry transactions volumes, why do you keep using inaccurate information?

For the period that we actually have reliable activity data for - up to June 2023 - transactions are down 27% against the 2020-22 average, and down 15% against the pre-Covid/post-GFC norm of 1.2 million.

I`m looking at this and taking a 20 year window, less time than the average mortgage.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/East-Midlands-property-transactions.html

The fixed mortgage rates people can get has gone down over recent months, that is not something I would have thought anyone could deny who watches mortgage rates.

Yes they are still high compared to when they were at 1 or 2% not so long ago, though not historically high. The trend is downwards anyway, which will be a relief to a lot of homebuyers & homeowners.

You can`t predict the trend, the bond market will reverse very quickly if the news changes.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/repo-market-spikes-conjure-memories-122304897.html

But fixed rate mortgages have objectively started to offer lower rates recently. I’m not predicting it I’m observing it.

Not necessarily these days, with higher rates. This is not a universal fact.

You are confusing banks making offers to lure in customers with tranches of money previously purchased with the reality of how debt is priced by the credit markets, it will just take a sentence from the FED chairman that is perceived as "negative" for rate cuts and more sugar rush for debt junkies to set volatility off again, that is how messed up the situation is now.

@CrashyTime who hurt you you're so hostile and aggressive to people with mortgages. Your wildly optimistic take on renting makes me think your job is in rentals or something

I’d agree with that x

@CrashyTime I think you make some valid points about the problem with the debt that come with mortgages - however, what happens when you retire and no longer have an income to pay for renting? That’s my question, what happens then?

yes properly is massively overpriced and inflated in this country, but the only possibility of owning your own home outright at the end and having that stability surely should be something to aspire towards?!

It was. I don't want to out myself but I watched them filming a scene in Rowlands Road (father's barbershop?). A lot was filmed in Bognor Regis too. Lovely little film.

Back to the macro for the most meaningful statistics. Mortgage Approvals presage House Price YoY Index. Approvals still falling and hence no likely sign of price increases imminent.

I love that film too @CrashyTime @XVGN

If you look at averages throughout the country, it is fact. But of course it's not true for everyone in every circumstance.

The point is that paying towards a mortgage like a debt junkie means you will have your own, owned home rather than worry about how to pay the rent once you retire.

Is property too expensive? God, yes. What happened over Covid was unbelievable. Do I believe government and lending banks have an agenda? Probably. I also think the private rental market is awful so buying property if you can afford to do so is the better option, rather than risking waiting for an unlikely significant crash.

It would not affect me if there was a big property crash, but I just don't see it happening. 5/10% perhaps, for less desirable property.

I think people waiting and waiting purposefully to buy (over years and years) are beyond daft. They could have paid a significant portion of mortgage off by now, but they've waited so long and prices have risen so much, they've trapped themselves and will probably never buy a property now.

Doesn't mean I'm right, just my opinion.

I agree with this.

Property IS too expensive and any sensible person would agree, surely. But that doesn't mean we will get a big house price crash. Renting is also too expensive in this country so isn't the good alternative it could be to buying.

Plus people do worry about still paying rent when they are old so at the risk of triggering Crashy, will normally choose to buy if they can. I do appreciate that not everyone has the luxury of choice.

The people who have been bashing their keyboards feverishly about house price crashes have been doing so since at least when we bought our first place in 2005 (a house which has at least tripled in value since then and was sold at 2.75x that in 2017).

Obviously a bit like ‘#NotAllMen’ this is not going to be true of “every property in every area since the dawn of time and for ever more”. But me, and the majority of people, are now able to start thinking about options to own a property outright, to downsize, relocate, stop working, change paths, or whatever we choose… because we have the cushion beneath us of a home that we own.

Caveats as above with @BadCider I don’t so much care about house price increases and the like (although my god was it helpful as I then divorced and needed to half the equity and start again) but the fact there’s a tangible end point to worrying about house security is to me invaluable.

House prices rise amid shortage of sellers

Homeowners saw the value of their property increase by 0.5pc in November compared to October, according to the Halifax house price index. It was the second monthly gain in a row after six consecutive falls before that. It means a typical home is worth £283,615, up around £1,300 on the previous month.

On an annual basis, prices were down 1pc compared to November last year, a sharp fall from the 3.1pc decline in the year to October. The increase comes after separate data from rival lender Nationwide also showed house prices rose in November compared to the previous month. It indicated that property values rose 0.2pc on a monthly basis, while the annual fall was cut significantly from 3.3pc to 2pc.

Kim Kinnaird, director at Halifax Mortgages, said: “The resilience seen in house prices during 2023 continues to be underpinned by a shortage of properties available, rather than any significant strengthening of buyer demand.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/07/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-house-price-index-halifax/

All very well and good, but with high rents, many many people can't save a deposit, so get trapped in rented because they simply can't pay rent and save a big enough deposit (as house prices are so high). And / or they don't have a high enough salary to get the necessary multiplier for a mortgage.

I agree that buying is a good idea if the circs are right, but it's not as easy as just deciding to buy.

Northern Ireland is the strongest performing nation in the UK, with house prices increasing by 2.3pc on an annual basis, according to the Halifax survey.

House prices in Scotland also continue to show resilience, although growth has flattened over the last year, with the average property in the country now costing £203,116.

Wales recorded one of the lowest annual falls, down 1.5pc, with homes selling for an average of £215,787 in November.

At the other end of the scale, property prices in the South East fell most sharply when compared to other UK regions over the last year, down 5.7pc to £373,943, a drop of £22,702.

London retains the top spot for the highest average house price in the UK, at £524,592, though prices in the capital have now fallen by 3.8pc on an annual basis.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/12/07/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-house-price-index-halifax/