Housepricecrash.co.uk - what a bunch miserable buggers. Can I get some normal folks opinions please?

[DaddyCool]

.... and not some 45 old wally still living with mother and bitter because he spent all his money on model trains instead of a down-payment back in 1998?

Not a good cross section on there at all.

Is it going to crash do you think? Please give me your opinions. As far as I can see it's a 50/50 split on the nation's opinion but I would like to see how similar people to myself (parents with small children) think.

PLus don't forget taht the government is benefitting from the houseprice boom just as much as the rest of us. Higher house prices means more people paying maximum stamp duty and more people paying inheritance tax. Both nice little earners.

I think taxing second homes is coming.If more affordable houses were built it wouldn't cause a crash but may cause a slight drop as people wouldn't be so desperate to buy at any cost if they had a choice. I think a drop of 20-25% may be realistic A crash is about 40-50 but can take a few years to hit the bottom.

I agree with MissG, Gordon will not dare slaughter the golden goose.
CGT on your own home is political suicide.

There already is capital gains tax on second homes and buy to lets if you haven't lived in them for a sufficient amount of time. Charging out of sight house price increases are an example of inflation which people usually hate. Homeowners love this kind of inflation though.

I hope house prices do drop to something realistic; by which I mean that my three sisters, all working, would have any chance of buying ANYTHING, as I did at their ages. But seems to be no chance of that in Brighton atm.

Maybe it depends where in Brighton, Noddy, we've just sold our house for 1/2 a million quid more than we paid for it 10 years ago, within days, without putting it formally on the market, and have had another couple, cash buyers, knocking on the door practically begging us to sell it to them instead.

Obviously it's fab fab fab for us, we're incredibly lucky, but as I say, none of my sisters will ever be able to buy here and I find that sad. As with other friends, once they have children Brighton's unreliable and speculative rental market just becomes too stressful and expensive for them, and I imagine that must be true of lots of places.

I think Brighton has been crazy recently especially certain areas.Ours has gone up 150k since we bought it last april!I just think there has to be a change soon.You must live near good schools!

Only Hove Park/ Blatch. Nuts, eh?

My understanding is that there is already capital gains tax on buy to let.
What he might do is change the date on which it is payable. Currently most pay CG tax when they sell, but businesses typically pay tax on "mark to market", ie if the price goes up you pay tax even if you don't sell.
I can see the attractions of this, since it will bring forward the date a lot of tax is paid. Hard to avoid, since if you sell up before the measure comes into place, you pay CG on all the gains made so far.
It may be thought that it will "gently" deflate the housing bubble.
He may try to get "clever".
For instance he may allow you to move your portfolio of Buy to let into Build to let, without incurring tax liability.
Thus if you have property worth (say) 1.5 million, and a mark-to-market gain of 200K your options are to either pay 50K tax immediately, or pay for some of the "200K" houses to be built and hope they go up in value.
Add in a few tax breaks for new low-carbon homes and it could be spuin as a very positive move.

build where exactly?
there is no flipping room left! not anywhere near here anyway...
next door have just stuck a house on the side, the width of our side extension. crazy crazy crazy.

AS the original poster said houseprice crash a bunch of whingers or for people that think the market can come down. Obviously what goes up must go ?
A) keep risining ad infinitum
B) Sideways(stagnation)
C) Down

Obviously there is a supply and demand problem judging by all the homeless on the streets not.

supply is being restricted because people cannot afford to buy so they dont put thier property on the market, they go into the attic

Last time the market crashed rates went to 15% but mortgages where averaging £60,000 so half the rate 7% and double the average mortgage £120,000 and voila.

and lets not forget the income multiples last time 3X joint, this time who cares make it up and self cert.

House price crash is an odd site though. I used to be fascinated by it.

Halifax have said they haven't sold many mortgages at less than 4.5 times income in about 18months Agree HPC site is amd but compulsive at times too A bit like MN!

It used to be my daily fix. After a while my head would be whirling with statistics and grapahs and oil prices and why now was the time to buy gold and emigrate to Canada.

Well I don't think that the BOE can justifiably raise rates again, as inflation has gone down, from 3.1 to 2.8 unless I have got this arse about face.

The target is 2 so who knows?They fiddle the figures anyway by including things one minute and not the next!

can get round cgt on BTL if you have lived in property wihtin certain timeframe, also many expenses are tax deductible etc

There is CGT on BTL as RTTH says a lot is avoided/fiddled whatever the phrase is. eg if you move in before you sell it is your main home no tax. I think the best way round that would be for the gov. to allow every adult (over 18) to own one house free of CGT on selling.

The most amazing thing about this thread is how many of us have looked at housepricecrash, I think it only has about 600 members. They found themselves on here once and got all excited have they found this yet?

Yeah I was sad when I heard that UCM, trouble is that is ment to be due to high energy prices but the effect of those will go in a short time. Has anyone else noticed how much their weekly food shop has gone up recently? I hadn't been for a few weeks then was shocked how little I got one night. Third problem as MPC have found out to their expense drop interest rates everyone has more money they spend more inflation goes up again.
You could say that it is rising house prices fueling our 'no more boom and bust miracle economy' therefore it is only a fall in house prices that will stop it?

I still think taxing BTL income as it comes in without allowing deduction of expenses such as mortgage interest payments would be helpful. Seems odd to me that you can tax deduct your BTL but not to put a roof over your families head.

questionname, that's exactly the problem which is spooking everyone from Gordon to Mervyn:
Could it be that the entire UK economy is becoming ever more reliant on this Ponzi scheme
based on house prices going up by at least 5% plus year on year?

There is some concern that if house prices drop or even stop increasing,
the whole economy will slide into recession which in turn will mean more repossessions,
more people in arrears which in turn means consumers spending less and so on -
one nasty vicious circle.

Sorry, dc, I sound like a miserable bugger now!

Well, dominiconnor, for this, can I ask, would you go on the beach in the morning. I have this problem? Since I live on the beach.

Sorry wrong thread

OMG sorry DC

I might go down the beach now and chill.

So I've been monitoring that forum for a decade now - have even made a couple of hundred posts.
All is not what it seems over there. Many of the posters with the highest post-count are also moonlighting as administrators - and they arbitrarily delete posts they disagree with, and punish dissenters by placing them in pre-mod so they can censor any contributions that threaten their world view.
The effect of this is a very one-sided set of threads, an echo-chamber of misogyny and class-based hatred of others.