Housepricecrash.co.uk - what a bunch miserable buggers. Can I get some normal folks opinions please?

[DaddyCool]

.... and not some 45 old wally still living with mother and bitter because he spent all his money on model trains instead of a down-payment back in 1998?

Not a good cross section on there at all.

Is it going to crash do you think? Please give me your opinions. As far as I can see it's a 50/50 split on the nation's opinion but I would like to see how similar people to myself (parents with small children) think.

Zombie thread alert. From 2007!! And yes there was a crash. I got through a good two pages before I checked the date 🙄

Interesting reading though! You genuinely wouldn't spot that it's from right before the last crash - people saying exactly the same as they are now about demand and supply.

There are a few from HPC who've found their way over to MN, so I'm sure they'll be along shortly.

Happy 15 year anniversary to this oracle:

sarkin · 13/05/2007 17:32

"As a Mortagage broker I can tell you to many people have borrowed far to much money. People call us for a mortages they only want interest only because they cant afford to repay the capital HEllO. So we have a country that is maxed out on interest only with no proof of income deals. And before anyone comes back with yeah like we'ved lived in our house for years and dont have any debt so there will be no crash. 1st its not you its your next door neighbour who maxed out on credit cards and spent the equity 2nd when New Labour came to power they said no more boom or Bust and 10 years later the country has gonne from 500 million national debt to 1.4 Trillion and House prices up 250%. There will be a crash but predicting the top, ah thats diffrent. Judging by the amount of To Let boards up in Bournemouth I think there may be a small problem of over supply within the Buy to let community which could filter through to the main market."

That 45 year old wally living with his mother is 60 now. I wonder what ever happened to him?

We sold and bought right at the start of the crash, maybe 6 months after this old thread, when property was at its height before the 2008 crash. Yes, there was a crash but the house we sold then for 143k recently sold for 315k, that's about a 83% increase. As long as you can afford the repayments (and sadly there will always be some who can't) then property crashes are not the end of the world.

Even if the price of my old now houses drops 20% to 252k it's still a huge increase on when I sold it.

@Mark19735 Likewise, I first became aware of HPC in 2004. Its no surprise the prolific posters are moonlight mods, and any opposing view is dismissed as trolling. One poster has invented so many back stories and a double identity, he can't remember what's true anymore.

There have been (and are) some very well informed posters, however that doesnt make their predictions right. I agree with the sentiment of housing being more affordable, but not the way in which its presented on HPC.

Unfortunately the general tone of the forum is misogyny, an assumption that everyone is stupid (which in itself is incredibly stupid), hatred of anyones success and incel vibes.

Good to check out current affairs headlines though 😏

This didn't age well 😂

Wasn't a 45 year old wally but was in my 20s when HPC put me off buying in 2007 and waited for a few years. While I'm not extreme enough to have spent time there beyond that, I'm not so against that site nor the principle that the house price increases have been damaging for everyone.

House prices move up and down but over time will increase due to inflation. My Nan bought her 2-bed for £500 but obviously the average wage was lower then! Flippancy aside, I think the government will intervene somehow if it looks like house prices are dropping “too much” as with the various schemes they’ve run over the years it is quite invested in the market.

This is a very eerie thread omg. You wouldn't believe it was 2007 they are saying the same things supply and demand. The economy is in worse shape Vs 2007 because they cannot do QE or cut rates.

They've been wanging on since 1999. Clearly 23 years later they've been proved wrong zillions of times.

Ignore, don't read it. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I am aware that it’s a zombie thread but given its timing as right before the last crash it really makes interesting reading. I had just sold my first flat and bought a larger one at this time and yes my flat price did plunge. I don’t really know by how much because I didn’t get it valued but I am assuming around 10%. It also did eventually go up and it’s now worth double what I paid for it. It will be very interesting to see what happens now but a lot of these comments are similar to what we saw then! Lots of speculation. Despite being a home owner already I am hoping for a bit of a crash as I want to upgrade and a crash will mean I get a better deal, borrow less and pay less stamp duty.

unfortunately, the market wont allow free give aways. Liz sorted that :(

Not a chance of the gov wading in to stop house prices falling. Most politicians, young buyers, parents and grandparents have finally accepted sky high house prices are a drag on the economy and social cohesion. In fact, allowing house prices to fall should be an overall vote winner. Affordable housing; what’s not to like?

Also, 60% or more of all houses are unmortgaged, so, price falls for those owner occupiers are largely irrelevant. And nobody cares about highly leveraged ‘buy to let’ landlords; least of all the government!

So the way that site works is interesting. The forum board shows you when each account joined, and how many posts they've made. There's ones who have posted thirty, forty thousand times over twenty years. Most likely these accounts are shared between a team, who also share in the moderator/admin duties and keep the discussions 'on message'.

They also brag about setting up sock puppet accounts over here on Mumsnet, and also Moneysavingexpert, Propertytribes etc. ... and then posting discouraging opinions, or downright misinformation dressed up as data - see discussion here:

It's all very Infowars/Cambridge Analytica. What I don't understand is what the ones who control this hope to achieve. They've been wrong about house prices for twenty years now. The acolytes who lap up the musings of the high-volume posters aren't market participants anyway, so their ravings don't have any practical effect on house prices - it's just a breeding ground for incels and online trolls.

Of course they can come up with a new plan to stop any crash. I honestly don’t think people realise what the implications of such an event would be and how it would have such a prolific affect on the general population that we could not possibly provide support to how’s those people now like the hotels locally or absolutely chockablock full of immigrants. I don’t care whether they legal illegal whatever. There’s definitely no room for any indigenous population.
And as a result of the government, will do everything and anything needs to do to ensure people stay in their own homes.

Equally, unless you’ve got 200 grand sat in the bank to potentially purchase something for cash, you aren’t gonna benefit from any crash. And if you have got 200 grand sat in the bank well you’re 20 grand worse off than you were in 2020 already.

The government know they are out of bullets trying to prevent a fall in house prices. The bond market will simply not allow it. So, it’s pointless believing the government will help the over indebted.

The period of easy money (credit) is over as the Fed raise rates and shrink the money supply. Servicing debt is about to get a whole lot tougher.

Falling interest rates over the last 40 years or so have seen asset prices, like house rise in lock step. Plus the government threw petrol on the fire with schemes like help-to-buy and allowing and unregulated buy-to-let mortgage market to boom. Thankfully, George Osborne laid the foundations to parking that in the long grass of specialist commercial lending. Not a very Conservative thing to do. We’re witnessing a reversal in the 40 year trend and are seeing interest rates start to normalise at 5-10%.

I believe there has been a shift and ever increasing house prices ( and debt) is being sacrificed on the Tories alter of reaching out to the younger voter ( renters).

Anyhow, as I mentioned up -thread, falling house prices will cause no problems to the majority of owner occupiers and renters waiting to buy. A few in the middle who still believe in ever increasing house prices and cheap credit will be burnt.

One last thing; don’t believe inflation will wipe out property debts in the current (failing) attempt at fiscal tightening to fight inflation.

The 2008 crash was bailed out by trillions of $ £ and € of printed money and prevented the banks from going broke. We’re paying the price of that now. The ‘anti’ house price inflation lot were wrong footed and have been wrong since the 2008 bailouts. They’ve also been wrong for much longer since interest rates stated their 40 year ( a few blips) decline. House prices are directly related to the price of credit. With the recent near zero % interest rates, house prices boomed. Plus the government stimulated prices with crazy schemes like help-to-buy and stamp duty holidays. Watch The Big Short.

So, yes, the supporters of falling house prices have been wrong for 20+ years. Until now.

Have you considered the implications that the bailout in 2008 has created for society? Or have you not noticed that anything is amiss?

If Governments have the power to stop crashes, why do you think there's such a thing as crash?

Personally, my little section of society remains unaffected by any government decisions.

Why was there a crash in 1990 I don’t think we’ve ever actually had a legitimate explanation for that but no doubt it suited somebody somewhere up high.

However, I have less concern for renters with a roof over their head having the opportunity to purchase assets the i do for some poor soul that’s literally got nothing in the world to call their own. It’s far better to ensure the indigenous population remains in its current status, fed and with a roof over their head than for us to be diverting funds away from those with refugee status who literally have nothing.

The current Ukrainian scheme of allowing the refugees to bunk in people’s houses has already fallen apart at the seams with a 30% increase in homelessness being presented to the council from that particular group. We certainly don’t need to be adding to their predicament.

@Smudgybuggerler you realise the big Short was an entertainment movie, not a documentary yes ? And the conditions in America were unrecognisable from the UK.

They may have been wrong for a decade or more but the historic low interest rates since the 17th century and money printing have created the biggest economic bubble in history and it has begun to burst. Its going to be ugly how ugly god only knows.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

Supply just got tighter

Can we have a volunteer to resurrect this thread in another 15 years' time?