Housepricecrash.co.uk - what a bunch miserable buggers. Can I get some normal folks opinions please?

[DaddyCool]

.... and not some 45 old wally still living with mother and bitter because he spent all his money on model trains instead of a down-payment back in 1998?

Not a good cross section on there at all.

Is it going to crash do you think? Please give me your opinions. As far as I can see it's a 50/50 split on the nation's opinion but I would like to see how similar people to myself (parents with small children) think.

amidaiwish - because people will be repossessed/go bankrupt.

I am becoming more convinced as time goes on.One of the building societies put up their base rate by .35% so rather than just passing on the rate rise they increased it.

No sign of a crash round here yet. Demand still exceeding supply, although price rises have slowed a little.

have you been following what's been happening in the US, NH? With the sub-prime market? Hundreds and hundreds of lenders have gne bust and market has fallen by 60% in 12 months in some placs.

it won't be overnight, Hula. IMO, of course.

But the US market is totally different from the UK one - I read. Can't be bothered to look up details atm but much less pressure on land and much more reluctance to buy "2nd-hand" homes over there so over-supply of new housing stock.

A crash is pretty much a self-fulfilling prophecy anyway. If enough people believe it will happen they will act accordingly and it will. Maybe. But there will always be first-time buyers who will snap up cheaper homes so the demand is created again.

A problem if you have over-extended on your lending.

dinny I've not seen many price reductions over here yet tbh. In fact people who didn't sell last year are putting theirs back on the market even higher so if they believe they can get it perhaps they'll pay a bit extra themselves ! Of course them actually selling is another matter. Prices might stabilise but don't think they will crash as such .

I have dinny and there are a lot of people here who have 'normal'mortgages which would be considered sub prime in the US.

oh and we also remember the last crash - lost 20% value of our first flat in 4 years -but we were at least able to pay the negative equity off as our income had risen. Also we are still running endowments which aren't going to achieve the orginal value but we have been able to adjust the interest only part of our mortgage to take that into account.

I don't know. Around the south east, the housing market is so tight at the moment that I think people are able to ask for silly money. I don't think those prices are sustainable, so assume that it will come down, but crash is another question. I think there is generally so much pressure to provide housing in the south east and an increasing population due to immigration, that the market will probably remain fairly stable...

that observer article is about the road 2 away from us. fascinating. and i know one of the people quoted.

I thought that Observer article was spot on. I would hate to be graduating now with £20k worth of debt and no chance of buying a home with all the security that entails. We don't have the protection here that other European countries have when it comes to renting.

It makes me that this government which was supposed to be about social justice and redistribution of wealth has presided over this nasty greedy spectacle. Everyone has been remortgaging their houses to go shopping.

whoah whoah whoah, hold the phone. who's purpleduck!?

great thread btw guys. thank you so much for your opinions. this is exactly what i was after. something I can read over and get a valid view.

ok. i know who purpleduck is now i wondered when you would show up!

I don't believe that a crash will happen unless interest rates keep rising. Why would it really?? However, the interest rate is set to go up again next month unless it already has (it's the first Thursday of the month, I believe that it's set). I did overhear something about the bank of England putting it up the other day. Lots of 'Experts' think it will peak at around 7% which is nowhere near high enough for a crash such as the one in the early 90's. It will just slow the market somewhat.

hey, LIZS, a lot of ridiculously-priced prperty near us creeping back on again at much more reasonable prices dh keeps saying people hav been displaying "typical end-of bubble behaviour" lately. ie. offering foolish amounts of money and then pulling out.

UCM - people are far more in debt than the last crash - juch narrower threshold.
you just didn't get lenders offfering 5 x salary and above, fgs

NH - v interesting to read your posts! and to see someone who knows what's going on in the States. who was it that said "when America coughs, we sneeze"? or something similiar!

Interest rates are not the only thing to affect prices.A 10% interst rate on a 60k mortgage is not as bad as a 7% on a 150k.Banks will stop being so ready with credit as people who are maxed out won't be able to afford it and people with buy to lets will find that the rent isn't covering the mortgage and so they will offload properties that aren't paying and invest elsewhere.Remember it has happened before and years ago I don't remember people taking their equity and spending it.If your house is worth 200k and your mortgage is 150 you only need to borrow back a little of the surplus to be close to the edge Then even if prices only drop a little there will be negative equity around

I'll tell you another reason why I don't think prices will crash...

...because the boom in home ownership started in the 1950's. Those people bought houses for £800 - £2000 that are now worth £250 - £400,000 depending on where you live.

That generation dies and younger ones inherit, so the families already on the housing ladder have a nice little deposit for the younger generation to buy a house.

John Major forsaw this as a dream... his words were something like 'A tide of wealth cascading down the generations'.

Tough if you start with nothing.

What is a "crash" ?
Many of us would happily accept a definition of "I can't sell my house for what I paid for it".
When does a drop in prices become a crash ?
1% ? 2 % 10% ? 20 % ?

What is a "crash" ?
Many of us would happily accept a definition of "I can't sell my house for what I paid for it".
When does a drop in prices become a crash ?
1% ? 2 % 10% ? 20 % ?

I am about to spend an attrocious amount of money on a new house so am rather bearish on the market at the moment (as in Murphy's law).

Did anyone else read that the central objective of Gordon's rule will be "home for everyone". He has not yet explained how he will achieve this but one of the things the article mentions is building 200,000 new homes pa rather than the current 180,000. Ok, this I support, it would not exactly lead to a crash.

BUT

Can anybody explain to me why he will not introduce a capital gains tax on property?

I am convinced that he will.

Solves two problems in one go - 1) more revenues to the budget and 2) lower house prices.

This could well lead to a major crash.

Argue against this somebody, please...

I have heard that they might introduce CGT on second homes and buy-to-lets.

I can't see them introducing CGT for main homes, especially not in the near future. It would be too controversial at a time when labour desperately needs votes.