Rises in food costs coming

[LemonPieKitty]

I was reading this morning and came across this article. Not sure if it's something to be worried about or another sensationalist headline but stuff like this petrifies me.

Bank of England boss predicts apocalyptic food costs

I have prepped for a long time but have basically run down my supplies to nothing as we are about to rip our house apart. Once the work is done I'll start building up my stores again and will have a lot more space to put things. I just find things like this quite worrying. I have a genuine fear of not being able to feed my kids. Do you think scenarios like this are likely?

[DenholmElliot]

Hmmm, I guess the logic behind this is to buy food at todays prices so that you won't be paying higher prices next month.

So do the maths.

I guess I spend about £50 a week on food.

The type of foods I could buy in advance and store are probably 2/3rds. So £15 a week on fresh stuff that can't be prepped and £35 on food that can. So at 10% inflation, if I buy another £35 worth of food to store, I'll have saved myself £3.50. I could probably buy about 4 weeks worth of food to store before I run out of space and that will save me £14.

I just can't get worked up about £14. I'll find it from somewhere, i'll shave it from another budget so no, this type of scenario doesnt worry me really. It's more annoying that worrying.

Do the maths. Work it out. See how much you will actually save before you run out of space.

[LemonPieKitty]

That's a really logical and sensible reply. Thank you.
I think I'll just stick to my few spare items system I had before and rotate it. It has been very useful during covid and I also became very unwell for a few weeks recently and we had plenty of easy fix meals for the teenagers to help themselves to. I'll stick to what I'm doing. Thank you for your helpful advice!

[BrieAndChilli]

i dont think you can really insulate yourself against food price rises as the previous poster has said. I guess it would be a good idea to stock up on some essentials so that if there are shortages you have enough to tide you over until they are sorted or an alternative is found. eg i had several bottles of cooking oil in my stock. With the war in Ukraine oil is in short supply and limited per person so I have been able to use my stock without adding to the panic buying and leaving enough for people who for whatever reason are unable to stock up.

I think the past couple of years with shortages and covid etc has shown its probably sensible to have a couple of weeks worth of food in if you can

[Madmog]

As said above, I don't think any of us can escape rising prices. There's only so much we can buy now in terms of money and storage.

For me, it's trying to buy things we use in bulk when on offer and trying to have an extra one for things I wouldn't want to run out of - here pasta, canned tomatoes, DH's favourite (and luckily cheap) cereal, cheap toilet roll, oh and in the case of cat food three weeks supply, as it's regularly off the shelves here for 2-3 weeks.

[EveningOverRooftops]

It’s also worth remembering why food prices are going up.

there’s multiple reasons. Energy costs being the main one but the shortages due to the war, fertiliser prices, global supply chains crashing and climate change are more worrisome.

I do not fear the costs of food rising. As above I’ll find the money. We’ll eat less some days if we have to. The worry I have is if choice becomes so limited or there’s not enough of our usual products to go around or those products that are available priority is given to big stores rather than small ones for example then it’s not a case of just finding the money but finding the money, and a premium price at that too, and working out alternatives from a limited supply.

right now I cannot find cooking oil here except for V expensive olive oil. I’ve just used the last quarter of my bottle, I don’t use much a year thankfully and can easily go without. I get through maybe a 1litre of vegetable and half to 1 litre of olive oil. But it is hard to find. My usual supermarkets have been empty for the last couple of weeks. Could be panic buying or slow supply chain and stock is on its way but it shows why having a store of staples can be really beneficial.

I have lard for cooking right now so I’m good on that front and have put the equivalent of a litre in my freezer that I’ll rotate/use up before getting oil again when it does reappear but if stocks don’t appear soon then that’s a hell of a lot of people looking for alternatives to cook with when their own supply dwindles and that demand will push up prices for the alternatives like lard and goose fat.

[Echo40]

I fear we will have have shortages or very steep price rises with dairy/ poultry/ wheat products and oils.
When Germany panic brought recently they had shortages on tomato products so tinned tomatoes , pasta sauce,pasta and condiments.
I have been buying value penne 29p a bag and value spagetti 20p but in many shops the value penne is always out of stock.
Normal non value penne is around 75p in tesco / morrisions.

I have turned my under stairs cupboard into a pantry.
I accept i can't afford to do years supply of everything as don't have the funds or the storage.

But my 12months supply is

Pasta
Rice
Ketchup
Tinned tomatoes
Passatta
Tomatoes puree
Lentils and grains
Some pasta sauces/ pasta bake jars.
Beans
Oils as doubtful we even use a bottle a month so 12 is my goal.
Also 12 aldi nuttoka as could be shortages palm oil.

6months supply flour and home baking
3months non food bathroom and cleaning loo roll pet food been tricky to get and by dogs fussy.

Will continue to do soft drinks/ cereal biscuits and other grocery items once a month with fresh shop weekly.

We planting more in the garden and the allotment.
We eating more pasta and meat free as meats so costly.
Drastically cut back on chicken consumption.
I usually have a freezer draw full reduced meat but its hard to find these days.

India just announced wheat export ban as well as Indonesia and Egypt.
We can't rely on Ukraine or Russia so globally wheat going up.
I think this will become more acute when it comes to harvest time.


Also uk added complications high diesel, high energy for UK business.
Brexit and trade war with Eu as well as biometric testing July 1st and possible rail strikes.

I don't think the UK is in a good place at all .
Our government are useless.
I may have stash some under the bed but I don't care i don't want to be stressed, short or paying over the odds.
The basics I listed are available and cheap right now.
Olive oil in aldi or lilds is 2.59.
Value tomatoes 28p everywhere
Value pasta still cheap.

[Madmog]

EveningOverRooftops Lidl had 1l of a light olive oil in on Monday, which said it was suitable for frying (they had three different types of oil). Obviously a lot more than your usual sunflower/vegetable oil, but it was £2.75 if your interested.

[FoolShapeHeart]

I have the same worry about being able to provide for my family, I don't have much fat in the budget so there's a limit to the cuts I can make before it starts having a significant impact. Because of our financial restrictions I'm making sure I've got basics, like a pp said about oil, if the item you want isn't in stock you'll usually get an alternative which puts pressure on stock levels for things that don't have any external issues. In your situation I'd fill a tub with budget price spaghetti, passata & herbs or something similar, and some multivitamins along with anything that you'd especially miss, so you have a bit of a cushion without taking up too much space. But it's a balance between space & budget so it depends which is most important for you right now.

[ChrisReasBathEggs]

I'm in two minds about what to do. I have a box of stuff under my bed, but would not last long in a real crisis.

I'm really panicking today (I'm hormonal, so might be that). I have been watching a few things regarding economics on YouTube and they have mentioned export bans etc, which makes me think inflation is going to get worse. I'm stick of being in a constant state of anxiety, but I feel the only way I can relax is to prep a bit. Not sure if I am just disappearing down a YouTube rabbit hole, or if I should have genuine concerns about this. The media aren't exactly hiding issues, but if you look at the data and delve in deeper, they are also concealing a lot too. How do I be sensible about this?

I don't have a garage to fill with stuff and space is very minimal, but I do have a bit of spare cash to get some supplies.

[WakeWaterWalk]

Echo40, Oil will not store that well will it?

[Babaski]

We're quite lucky in that we have a chest freezer in the garage so i always make sure that's full.
Anything on offer I buy loads of (just items we'd use anyway) things like laundry stuff, cleaning products, loo rolls, foil etc.
I did a trip to Aldi this morning and bought a load of their microwave rice packs - 49p each and takes 2 mins to cook so saves on energy.
Also the part baked bread rolls, always handy to have a few packs in.

Realistically there's only so much you can buy and store - everyone's in the same boat although I am expecting the poorest people to have a really rough time of it, it's awful.

[WakeWaterWalk]

I'm not watching YouTube on this issue. I know it's happening, we will adapt.
I do have food and household supplies in for emergencies like illness or bad weather.
If Covid taught me one thing it is that it's never bad enough to need a tinned carrot. (I had remembered them as not bad from my childhood!)

DenholmElliot's post sums up the reality for most of us without a cellar!

[EveningOverRooftops]

@ChrisReasBathEggs

I'm in two minds about what to do. I have a box of stuff under my bed, but would not last long in a real crisis.

I'm really panicking today (I'm hormonal, so might be that). I have been watching a few things regarding economics on YouTube and they have mentioned export bans etc, which makes me think inflation is going to get worse. I'm stick of being in a constant state of anxiety, but I feel the only way I can relax is to prep a bit. Not sure if I am just disappearing down a YouTube rabbit hole, or if I should have genuine concerns about this. The media aren't exactly hiding issues, but if you look at the data and delve in deeper, they are also concealing a lot too. How do I be sensible about this?

I don't have a garage to fill with stuff and space is very minimal, but I do have a bit of spare cash to get some supplies.

If you have the discretionary funds to add to your cupboards any extras you know you’ll eat then yes you’re sensible.

I do think it’s worse than predicted. Iirc they predicted 3% inflation increase by end of year and were at 10% and still rising.

I added canned rice pudding to my store this week and instant jelly granules as they take up next to no space.

as well as more jars ready for the courgette tsunami 🤣

[ColouringPencils]

I am not a prepper but we do keep some extras. DH grew up quite poor, so I think it is kind of his way of insulating himself. It's mainly just cans of various types of beans and soups, tomatoes, fish, and we always buy big bags of pasta and rice. I don't have room for anything else in my tiny galley kitchen. I use some of this every week and then just top it up again. The thing I am slightly concerned about is that we already shop quite cheaply, so like @EveningOverRooftops says, the limited stock might mean you necessarily have to go for food that would have normally been pricier (plus inflation).

[EveningOverRooftops]

Quite.

My supermarket has been consistently out of stock of 13p spaghetti hoops the last 14 days next available brand is 40p can. My DC eats these pretty regular with toast and eggs.

6 cans at 13p is 78p for a week of easy lunches.
6 cans at 40p is now £2.40.

for someone with a tight budget that means they can’t buy milk that week or have to halve the amount of bread they use or eat half a can meaning fewer calories consumed.

@Madmog thanks. I’m using lard to fry where I do require oil. At 39p a block it’s pretty affordable and I’m not vegan/veggie so that’s not a problem for me. back to storing

I can see some vegans and veggies on the lower end budgets like a friend of mine are going to have to modify their diets to get the fats they need and they shouldn’t at all feel bad about that. Do what you’ve got to do right?

[Caspianberg]

If you have garden space, I always suggest berry plants and herbs make the most savings over time.

They aren’t instant food for now, but generally they are all periannual so buy once and they will keep growing year old year. If you see the plants in the sales, and gave space to start establishing some then each year you will have some basics of items which are usually the most expensive food items per kg.

Redcurrant, raspberries, rhubarb and strawberries all pretty hardly and easy.

herbs that generally die back in winter then just regrow in summer:
Mint - you will have enough to dry for winter dried mint, and fresh April-October all year for seasoning and fresh mint daily tea
chives - live forever. Handy to liven up eggs
oregano - tomato based sauces
rosemary

[BlackeyedSusan]

Milk at Morrisons went up by 6p between Wednesday and Saturday.

[AdoraBell]

I’m the same ColouringPencils, not quite enough food when I was young. I was a child in the 70’s and clearly the inflation affected my parents. I remember my late saying mushrooms were expensive so we only 1 each. I need to have full cupboards, not every cupboard, to ease my anxiety.

ChrisRearsBathhEggs when I’m anxious about food/money I go through my cupboards and make lists. Sometimes, when DH panics and spurts crap about the economy/environment/politics - due to his own issues- I distract myself by rearranging things.

[AdoraBell]

Late mother

[ifonly4]

Had a shock yesterday, the cheddar cheese I like from Lidl has gone up from £1.79 to £2.19. Admittedly it's a larger piece, but that's a 22/23% increase since the spring. Don't really want to stop buying it, as I don't really like other calcium products and it's great for adding a little on top on veggie pasta for some protein.

[BlackeyedSusan]

I’m the same ColouringPencils, not quite enough food when I was young. I was a child in the 70’s and clearly the inflation affected my parents. I remember my late saying mushrooms were expensive so we only 1 each. I need to have full cupboards, not every cupboard, to ease my anxiety.

I am seriously fucked up about food. Also a seventies child with one parent who was fucked up about food by his parents. (They gave his war rations to his older siblings) we were fed off bacon at home. rationing was still happening in the seventies in our house as well. Though breakfasts were really good strangely, teas were awful most days of the week.

[Echo40]

@ifonly4

Had a shock yesterday, the cheddar cheese I like from Lidl has gone up from £1.79 to £2.19. Admittedly it's a larger piece, but that's a 22/23% increase since the spring. Don't really want to stop buying it, as I don't really like other calcium products and it's great for adding a little on top on veggie pasta for some protein.

Oh my days I saw it went up to £1.99 had no idea its gone up again.
Lilds gold coffee was £1.89 now £2.39 its gone up 3 times in last month.

[BlackeyedSusan]

Dd has finished exams now so time to reorganise our stocks and see what needs topping up.

[AdoraBell]

Well done to your DD BlackeyedSusan

[BlackeyedSusan]

Thanks. Seems like everything was on hold while these were on.