Being brutally realistic - how bad do you think it will get?

[JesusInTheCabbageVan]

Sorry to muscle in on your forum.

I've just been doing a bit of reading, and have read that the UK imports around 80% of its pasta from Italy and maybe 50% of its rice from India. So assuming significant shortages of both imminently, there will be a significantly increased demand for potatoes and other British produce, combined with a shortage of migrant workers in the fields.

Am I oversimplifying? Or is all this already blindingly obvious to those of you who are used to planning ahead?

I think we are in for a lean few years and people need to change the way the think about food and getting most other products on demand or next day.

Reminder to self to start growing own food this weekend

I think we are already expecting food shortages in certain products and price rises in general

Most MN preppers will be growing things themselves where they can.

Very good point. What's everyone growing?

Personally I'm growing this year:

potatoes (lots)
broccoli raab
normal broccoli
strawberries
leeks
spring onions
white onions
garlic
rhubarb
blueberries
raspberries
gooseberries
redcurrant
blackcurrant
courgettes
tomatoes
peppers
aubergines
maybe sweetcorn but haven't decided yet since its a hassle
lettuce
runner beans
french beans
peas
mange tout
butternut squash
lots of herbs

I knew being 4 stone overweight was a good idea. I might be slim by the end of this.

HasaDigaEebowai do you have a big garden?

HasaDigaEebowai do you have a big garden?

I do but the area where I plant veg is not that big. Probably as large as an average garden though. I have 8 large raised beds, 8 small raised beds and then some general planting areas around the outside. My biggest problem is rotation. We spent last weekend prepping the beds ready for planting and planted a load of strawberry runners which had buried themselves in the gravel.

If you're not able to plant much plant potatoes.

Hasa that's amazing.

We've got a gooseberry bush and a blackcurrant bush. Most years we grow various veg, but we had a holiday of a lifetime booked for July/August and DH is still holding out hope... I don't know. So he's planning to just plant squash on the basis that they can look after themselves. Might look into planting a few things for June at least.

I’m guessing that in 6-10 weeks the numbers will peak and start to fall and there will be pressure to open borders and prioritise the economy. The virus will have run through those who have been exposed but as the isolated start emerging there will be more cases but by then we’ll have grown desensitised to massive death rates.

This is the period I’m most concerned about.

I’m hopeful that a vaccine will come earlier than predicted but I wouldn’t rule out a mutation/second wave and I think some kind of quarantine is likely next winter.

I’m trying to grow more veg and potatoes but I’m no gardener so we’ll see how that goes. I’ve tightened up my housekeeping as much as I can- using less energy and water, meal planning and eliminating waste. I think this would be a good time to apply for an allotment but it’s not a facility I could make proper use of as I have back problems.

I think that we’re in for a tough few years as businesses fold, unemployment rises and taxes are hiked to pay for national borrowings.

I feel over exposed at the moment as I’m over dependent on frozen food. I’d like to increase my storecupboard, but for the moment I don’t feel I can buy to prep when people are struggling to get food. I’m going to learn to preserve and can, and hopefully in the summer it will be possible to stock up in this way. Also, I want to find a suitable way to store root veg and potatoes.

I would hazard a guess that China will emerge out of this mess with the strongest economy. I haven’t really grasped what that will mean in real terms. I agree that rice and pasta might increase in price. I’m concerned that the cheap fashions and goods we’ve taken for granted will also be a thing of the past and I wish I’d had the foresight to stock up on a couple of seasons’ clothes for dc, and winter coats and shoes.

I’ve been reading up on urban farming - chickens are a possibility. I’d love a goat but I’m pretty certain that would be a LTB situation for dh and breeding rabbits for meat, like the French during the war, is definitely beyond my capabilities; I’d sooner be vegetarian.

Sorry, but you did say blunt. Obviously I really, really hope that I’m wrong about most of this.

I read that Vietnam (or was it Thailand) has blocked all exports of rice this week, I think India will follow suit and then we have massive issues. Here in Germany no rice in the shops, even amazon is 90% sold out, even of the 10kg bags that no German has ever set eyes on before. It is weird.
(on-off lurker with a Brexit stash even though I am in Germany. English things and other things I suspect come via England instead of via Amsterdam)

It was in the grauniad. Wondering whether to buy more rice now?

It’s always being ahead of the curve that is so frustrating. Trying to get some local support for a distanced clothes swap for kids and encouraging people to plant seeds etc and just getting back “stay inside” “no need to plant seeds” “clothes shops will be open in three weeks, don’t worry” “we shouldn’t be going to the allotment as if we all stay inside it will all be over by Easter”. It’s so shortsighted, of course we need to socially distance but we also need to figure out how to survive long term while doing it, it’s not going to be three weeks ffs and when people finally realise that planting season will be missed and people will have burned through all their supplies. This is the long haul and Figuring our how to keep society functional at a distance is essential. Needed a rant and thought you ladies would understand

I've been telling all my friends to plant things. Lots of them are quite high maintenance types who have never planted anything in their lives and so its quite a mindset shift but I've managed to get through to a few of them.

If everyone with a garden planted a few things it could make an enormous difference to people's diets. Just being able to have the staples like potatoes will bulk up a meal massively.

For those who have never done potatoes before its so easy. Get a potato and let it sprout on the window ledge. You are looking for good stubbby sprouts, not long dangly ones. Dig a hole about 15cm deep and put it in. Cover it up. It will show leave above the surface within a few weeks. Once the plant starts to get leggy, mound up the soil around the stem. It will flower and then die back and then you magically dig up 10 potatoes where you planted one. Easy peasy (until you get blight - keep potatoes well away from tomatoes)

I have family in India and the latest news on local telly there is rice is not being exported because the domestic price that’s being offered is more than the export rate because of the testing times and it is vital now to supply locally first.

Thank you @sprayitall that is useful to know. Of course, things may change but it is reassuring to have enough long lasting rice in the cellar.

Stupid question but do you plant potatoes from other potatoes? Can you order the seeds or bulbs or whatever online? I know nothing!

really I was wondering about a clothes swap. There's an older lad two doors down who looks like he's growing like a weed (in a nice way) so I was thinking about asking his mum if she wanted to sell me his old clothes for a few quid. They should fit my DS.

I'm not a prepper but am anxiously watching my seeds and hoping they grow

www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/locked-down-india-rice-rates-hit-3-month-low-thai-prices-off-6-12-year-peaks/article31178706.ece

I found this article about rice but need someone with commodities knowledge: if prices are extremely low but lockdown disrupts the supply chain, how significant will the price rises be to Europe? Thanks.

@stella I don’t think food will be a problem as rice or food as such is available in plenty as usual and the government will make every effort to feed the nation during these testing times.

@stella1know The freights cost to export rice has increased by atleast 30% in the last week. So that’s the problem and because very few freights are operating now they have to send large quantities per shipment that’s available. Domestic prices of rice have increased and the demand has also increased - so farmers are choosing to supply locally to avoid exorbitant freight costs.

@Bluewavescrashing generally potatoes are grown from other potatoes, one potato will grow into a plant that will produce around 10 potatoes. You can plant supermarket ones that are sprouting, although I've always read it's best to buy potatoes sold as seed potatoes, as they're certified free of potato viruses which can reduce yield / give rotten potatoes etc.

Potatoes can also be grown from true potato seed but the results can be variable. They may not resemble the variety they came from and can sometimes contain high levels of toxic alkaloids, so most people don't grow this way. Lots of info on true potato seeds here: www.cultivariable.com/instructions/potatoes/how-to-grow-true-potato-seeds-tps/

We are growing much more than we have previously. As soon as this started we went and bought a lot of seeds that will last us a while if needed then too. Currently got...

Broccoli
Cauliflower
Beetroot
Carrots
Lettuces of various variety
Peas
Radish
Tomatoes
Courgette
Aubergines
Loads of herbs
Gooseberries
Blackberries
Blueberries
Strawberries

The beetroot, carrots and lettuce have come back from last year.

Haven’t yet planted any potatoes but they are in a box ready to go in this week.

Even in a flat you can grow some things on a window sill.

DH has been prepping the garden and he always grows things I disapprove of like carrots and potatoes because normally they are cheap and abundant. I'd rather grow expensive things like peas, beans and tomatoes. This year I am on board with his extending the potato area! We get fancy seed potatoes because I like odd varieties, but spuds do the same job.

I don't think it will get 'bad' but I think people will need to readjust very severely. I work in housing and some of the shit people are still complaining about... I want to shout, "there's a fucking pandemic, no I'm not sending someone to your house to clean your light fixtures".