Being brutally realistic - how bad do you think it will get?

[JesusInTheCabbageVan]

Sorry to muscle in on your forum.

I've just been doing a bit of reading, and have read that the UK imports around 80% of its pasta from Italy and maybe 50% of its rice from India. So assuming significant shortages of both imminently, there will be a significantly increased demand for potatoes and other British produce, combined with a shortage of migrant workers in the fields.

Am I oversimplifying? Or is all this already blindingly obvious to those of you who are used to planning ahead?

Hi Looseleaf ... I'm not fully in on all those conversations, but where there are issues with imports then ingredients are being sourced from different countries

On a bigger level, my personal opinion (not work's!) is that one way for the world to get through this for next 1-2 years if there is an issue is for govts to prioritise grain etc for human consumption not animal feed (I'm a vegetarian, so I am biased, but rationing meat to a couple of portions a week not daily would be my solution, and is not so different to how people ate in previous times!)

Less controversially, it helps to remember that govts also have stocks as do food manufacturers, and so do retailers (sometimes those would add up to a whole years' supply).

The recent issues have been totally distribution based not to do with stock/supply: however, simplifying ranges, removing waste & eating less (not NO) meat would be the big changes that help

Clarifying: retailers & manufacturers have several months to up to a year of various lines in supermarkets each, the govt supply is on top

I've always followed this board and have always kept 6-8 weeks of food, toiletries and batteries in the house. I've now started planting my own crops in trough planters and have ordered a water butt. We have oodles of clothes (years worth if needed) but shoes are another story. Unsure how to go about getting shoes for DC in multiple sizes without spending ££££

I also think that now families are being super-careful we will see a lot less domestic food waste - I have seen various figures quoting even 20% waste in homes (there is a lot less waste in retailers). Now we are all 'using it up, making do' as the alternative is 'do without' I expect that will make a big difference (careful buying, meal planning, using in date order) ... and I personally hope will shape the attitudes of the next generation in a positive way, as rationing did for the WW2 generation

Snorkel - this is accurate. Not that there won't be crisps/chocolate etc, but maybe fewer types/variety of pack sizes etc

Otherwise I'd be panic buying chocolate myself :-)

As a true pepper I need to stock all possible food from my food patch.
So I'm going to be tending my date palm this morning
And seeing to the citrus orchard because i cannot do without a good slice of lemon in my evening sun downer.
Perhaps I shall spend the afternoons checking on the rice paddy, then seeing to the palm oil plantation.
The fish in the tank will need feeding but i'm not sure where I can get Tuna food unless i feed them chopped up polar bear steaks.
Not too difficult as the back garden is only 10 foot by 5 foot

@NCforthisMarch that is a good idea - so much grain (and water) is squandered raising livestock in miserable conditions and it makes us unhealthy and raises antibiotic resistance. I wonder if any any governmsnt would speed up the markets’ reaction by requisitioning animal feed for humans. It is mainly soy though (and other animals) but such concepts may influence future plantings.

purple - sounds good, can i get in on your supply?

HP & Stella - just read your comments + agree with you both

• HP: yep, factories are prioritising 'essential' lines over some 'treats' and moving over some of the factory lines
• Stella - you raise excellent points on this & the other 'food' thread: I hope we will see a solution to picking (teen labour??? jk), and I think its fair that poorer countries might focus on domestic supply

When I read about NHS workers sacrificing their lives, & leaving their children motherless in case of last 2 nurses, general public being a bit more flexible about what they eat, & most importantly avoiding waste is another huge part of doing our bit, & lots of people are doing that already

I'm going to be doing a little gardening this summer as I think it will keep costs for some fruit & veg down - its doable even in small spaces (I had a LOT of tomatoes when I lived in a small flat in London)

thanks Stella - I'll eat the soy, I do anyway - and its a huge filler for sausages etc so a lot of people who say they don't like it probably already eat it regularly :)

@NC also a soy fan here even though it is processed. Soy mince is a great thing, haVe been eating it often for two decades almost. Tofu too but prefer the mince as a meat substitute. It used to be harder to get in Germany and is still a niche production here, but then still lentils are too, used only for lentil soup. I really miss quorn, quorn chicken esp. A few years back quorn launched in Germany but they only sell smLl packs of refrigerated pieces and they don’t taste very good and are very expensive . So back to soy it is, and orange lentils and other pulses from the Turkish shops. Everything sold out here atm though.

@NCforthisMarch I thought that in the UK at least the government no longer held an emergency food stockpile as they have delegated that responsibility to the supermarket......

I agree Really. I don’t think manufacturers have stockpiles. They manufacture just in time. The supermarkets do not have large warehouses in the U.K., the manufacturers distribute. The army does have rations but those are to feed the military, not the population. The country has to have some form of military defence and armies have to be fed.

Hi Really - that is correct re UK govt, it finished 91-95, I was referring to other govts - & the impact on global supply + ingredient chain

UK manufacturers are working with DEFRA to maintain & increase supply: this was case re Brexit planning, and specifically for Covid on future planning. What we saw in March was a 2 week period with double sales (so more of a spike vs xmas ,which is planned for 1 yr in advance), so that won't be an ongoing issue.

Just in time production for most foods isn't really the case - if so, we would often see supply issues with manufactured foods.

It is more of an issue for fresh goods (anyone remember the great courgette crisis of c2016, or the 30pc price increase of orange juice in 1992 following storms in Florida). Manufacturers maintain ingredient stocks for various commercial reasons (maintain consistency, manage our own costs), retailers do the same

Price increases are however a more likely scenario: today, an 'average' UK household spends 5% of their income on food, in the late 70s this was 20% of income. We in the UK are used to an abundant supply of cheap food, choice, and high levels of waste

an 'average' UK household spends 5% of income on food

Really?!? We spend a lot more than that!

Yes ... food had got relatively cheaper, housing has got hugely more expensive

Bear in mind also that average household sizes have also got much smaller in that time, so the proportional cost of housing goes up & food down

Here are some stats on food spending relative to income: for low income hhlds its 15%, others around 10%, but that includes eating out & alcohol (my 5% figure comes from a different source)

www.gov.uk/government/publications/family-food-201718/family-food-201718

And another article - UK food being cheapest in Europe, this gives 8% of income on groceries

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45559594

And lastly, spread by income group
www.statista.com/statistics/284849/food-and-drink-share-of-household-spend-in-the-united-kingdom-by-income-group/

All very interesting, thank you to all. Specially @NCforthisMarch

"How bad do you think it will get?"

It has already got bad enough that there is no flour to be had, anywhere. We have a local mill where I used to buy the giant sacks (baked 4 loaves of bread every week). No more 16 kilo available to the public. Public access for purchase of 1l bags reduced to a slot of 10 minutes a day, not announced ahead of time.

2 DC living in different parts of the country can't buy flour.

And I don't think it is just scores of new hobby bakers buying up all the flour. If you cannot buy flour from a mill then something is going on.

I agree about the flour. Definitely. And other produce... sales are up but still there are big gaps in products available.

I googled the situation re Kazakhstan exporting flour as read they were stopping to protect their citizens’ own needs during corona but it seems now they will just be restricting it and will just not export as much .

A neighbour is a director of an Indian foods company (takeaways and supermarket sauces/ready meals) and is worried about rice.

On our street, a few of us tend to grow some veg, but all those have massively increased efforts this year both because of having time to devote to it in sowing season (unusual for most!) and for fear of supplies later in the year. Salads, peas, beans (various), tomatoes, peppers, courgettes, spinach, spring onions, beetroot and summer squash mostly. But a lot more of each than normal - planning to squash all beds and pots absolutely full.

In our area, flour is still ok but sugar is very hard to get and there were no eggs at all in the supermarkets this weekend - the normal egg shelves were holding Easter cakes etc instead so they hadn’t even run out recently, but at least the previous day.

World foods and sauces/condiments and tinned foods aisles were depleted compared to last week, sweet corn, beans (cannellini, kidney, four bean mix) and chickpeas all running low or gone. Mustard almost gone (I was looking for some). Tinned fish much depleted. Mexican food very low. Indian sauces somewhat low. Italian sauces were good but no tinned tomatoes or passata. No liquid soap.

Freezers fine. Fresh meat fine. Fruit and veg reasonably ok. Dairy fine. Snacks, crisps, biscuits, alcohol, toilet roll etc all no issues. Other cleaning items and toiletries all fine.

The main holes were all in that single aisle - apart from sugar and flour on baking aisle (there was some sugar if you didn’t mind brown or icing, and flour levels were down but small packs still on the shelf).

I didn’t need most of these, I just noticed them as I went around.

Thank you Biddypop. Glad to get your feedback on your supermarket. Like most, I do not venture out much and do not hear the up-to-date of what it is like.
Interesting about rice and other imports and still soap. Where is soap made? Eastern Europe?