Being brutally realistic - how bad do you think it will get?

[JesusInTheCabbageVan]

Sorry to muscle in on your forum.

I've just been doing a bit of reading, and have read that the UK imports around 80% of its pasta from Italy and maybe 50% of its rice from India. So assuming significant shortages of both imminently, there will be a significantly increased demand for potatoes and other British produce, combined with a shortage of migrant workers in the fields.

Am I oversimplifying? Or is all this already blindingly obvious to those of you who are used to planning ahead?

I don't know where the soap is made, we usually buy carex but there hasn't been that or any other kind when I have been in store recently (I got one Radox 3 weeks ago, but bought a pack of 4 bars of Dove, the only option there, 2 weeks ago as I had just poured the last of our liquid soap into the home dispensers).

I haven't been near any shops in weeks but DSis has just reported that there are gaps on the shelves in her area. No flour, bread mix, yeast, eggs, cous cous, low on rice and pasta and various tinned products. Everything you'd expect really when people are switching to longer life products because they don't want to go out to shop regularly.

Boots had Dettol and their own brand soaps last weekend and Lidl was topped up about two weeks ago, so it is out there but not so much choice. Keeping an eye out for Carex though as it suits my DD's hands.

Keeping an eye out for chickpeas here as well as we often use them.

There are gaps in the basics and cheaper brands in my area so bread, eggs & dairy in short supply. I have been ordering basics from a fresh produce supplier to save me going out. It's more expensive but they deliver so it balances it out. I just managed to get a super delivery slot for next week after 6 weeks of trying.

One thing to remember is that the virus isn't going away once lockdown is lifted so all the precautions need to be adhered to. I think we'll see another spike in infections in late Sept/Oct so possibly another lockdown. People should be preparing for the winter now when the stock levels return to normal.

Ineedabreak I agree, I think perhaps this time next year may be when prep stores are really needed. Aside from No deal Brexit I keep thinking about where a lot of prep type stuff comes from: tinned tomatoes, rice, pasta etc, that concerns me more than not being able to get avocados or be limited on choice.

I keep trying to find out where stuff (food, cleaning stuff, batteries etc) is made/packed/shipped from to try and prioritise but not finding it straightforward. I know we import a lot but not exactly what and how that might change.

Only gaps I have seen in local shops are eggs, sugar, flour, other baking accoutrements. And ketchup.

So another three weeks of lockdown. I will have used up most of my stores.

Is there an uptick in both folk going out and about, and also the number of fines given by police?

I have sensed that people are getting more fed up with lockdown. Could things go a bit nasty? Might the army become more involved?

Will people shop more and become more frustrated at lack of foodstuffs?

I will head out this morning to see if I can buy soap and detergent, pasta and flour and root veg/broccoli.
I found lots of salad last time but no veg for our Easter Sunday Roast. I used the last of my frozen veg.

I still don’t get why items are not making it onto shop shelves, even with the previous panic buying and the possibility of some staff being off sick. Now there are queues and restrictions on what people buy, I am no nearer really understanding why there is not enough to go round.

Locally our bins aren't being collected, the refuse sites are closed (only good if you can drive anyway) so people are either fly tipping or having great big smokey bonfires.

I can see that becoming a problem (but equally understand that they have staff off etc).

Bins?!
Our food waste collection has stopped, but the bins are emptied.
What is the local authority’s reason or plan?

Fresh veg and salad can’t be stock piles so it’s worrying when that goes.
Here they are refusing to take extra waste and the skips are closed. Everyone being at home means more waste and surely less waste collected from offices and restaurants etc, but understand everywhere has a staffing issue.

Where would you buy sweet potato starters from and are they as easy to grow as normal potatoes?

We are still unsure about how much to keep risk getting fresh food deliveries from the infection risk as opposed to eating the sticks we have, but then aware that things will get worse regarding bread and rice. But milk/dairy we should be ok for in the U.K. prices will go up.

Can anybody explain why labourers are being flown in from abroad to pick the harvest? There is a large unemployed/ furloughed population here now so why can't they be utilised?

Presumably they don't want the work. You can't force people to do it. They fly the workers in every year.

Posted too early. I saw it on the news earlier today that Romanian farm workers were being flown in to help pick the harvest. Is there a specific reason why unemployed British workers can't do this job?

Presumably they don't want the work. You can't force people to do it. They fly the workers in every year.

It's a shame that people can't be compulsorily contracted to work temporarily to do this while waiting for their benefits/furlough money. The news report said there was a real concern that a lot of food would be left to rot if they didn't get enough workers in. Which is ironic as due to the pandemic, we're experiencing food shortages & supply chain disruption.

so why can't they be utilised?

Fruit and veg pickers are people and just like you they weigh up whether applying or accepting any job will be good for them and their family.

This doesn't belong in preppers though (very grateful long-term lurker )

It's a shame that people can't be compulsorily contracted to work temporarily to do this while waiting for their benefits/furlough money.

How would people travel each day to do the work? Most of the pickers live on site for the duration of the job, people wouldn't want to do that. Plus the pickers are skilled and can work fast, most people would struggle to do a good enough job quickly enough.

amp.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/17/british-workers-reject-fruit-picking-jobs-as-romanians-flown-in-coronavirus

There are factors that would prevent people from taking up the jobs as mentioned in the last few post. However, where people are able to do it maybe they could learn from experienced pickers. This way a new team of local pickers are trained and able to help out in unusual circumstances such as now. Waiting for universal credit and furlough money will take at least 2 months. If people are free and able to work then at least its a wage coming in.

where people are able to do it

Where people are WILLING and able to do it.

You seem to be missing the point. People don't want to do this work. That's why they bring in people every year who are prepared to do it. So unless you want to conscript people then it won't happen.

How long (or how much) do you think we need to prep for winter? I’ve been thinking along the lines of about 3 months stock, which as a relative newcomer seems vast to me. But am I under prepping?

We’ve been lucky that the virus reached us towards the end of the traditional flu season, and as the weather picked up. But if it’s not unreasonable to expect an upsurge in the autumn/winter and flu season runs from October to April, that’s a period of 7 months. Now I know it’s unlikely we’d be in lockdown for all of that. But given the potential for price rises and food shortages I’m starting to flounder a bit.

It's easy to get flummoxed and tied in knots. No one can predict the future.
My take on it is that things will be more expensive and I will either be financially in the same or worse position to deal with it. I have MS so every day is a mini health surprise, even if that is "no change today". MS is an unpredictable condition.
In the current scenario, I'd suggest learning new skills or personal tactics. Be that cooking from tins; vegetable gardening; using leftovers; trying smaller shops who do deliveries and using them frugally; looking at livening up dull stodgy ingredients with spices; making bread or finding good substitutes. And finding good ways to chill out.
If you already do these things, keep on keeping on. It astonishes me that people apparently don't do any of these things. I'm sure they must do.

We are farmers and have seasonal workforce, usually Romanian skilled pickers who are returning year on year. As with any agricultural operation, it is infinitely easier when your labour know the process and also know the farm they are working on. This year we have a proportion of our Romanian staff returning and a proportion of UK uni students who will be learning from the skilled pickers - we don't know how this will play out yet, but whilst I was at uni I spent my summers picking grapes for vineyards in France and learning from the skilled pickers worked well - we will try to shadow that here where we can, but language barriers will be an issue.

Picking is hard physical work and the good old British weather cannot be relied upon.

I do hope that off the back of this, as a nation we can get back to eating for local seasonal produce rather than flying green beans over from Mexico year round. I am not a "prepper" on this forum but as a farmers wife living remotely, I have been brought up to pickle, preserve and have chest freezers full for any eventuality. Prepping really goes back to how our grandparents lived and they were a lot less wasteful than our generation in the whole, where food is concerned.

I do hope that off the back of this, as a nation we can get back to eating for local seasonal produce rather than flying green beans over from Mexico year round.

You are literally flying in your workforce and as for wanting people to be less wasteful - perhaps check out the carbon emission from those flights...

@PersonaNonGarter we are flying in our workforce because we can't source it here in the UK. We haven't been able to source UK workforce for 20+ years, and the issue has been brought to the fore this year when we (the industry) have appealed nationwide for a workforce, which hasn't been forthcoming.

What exactly do you expect us to do about that? You can't force the UK unemployed to work. If we don't have a workforce, the crops don't get harvested, a lot of fruit and veg needs handpicking.

Also, flying tonnes of veg across the world every day is not comparable to one return trip to Romania every year, but I take your point. It's arguably a lot more justifiable than a week all inclusive in Lanzarote but the British public don't seem to see that, either.

frillyfarmer I’m feeling immensely grateful to all uk farmers at the moment and we normally buy our veg in a local box but I’m going to care a lot more now and try and keep fruit local too .
I hope the picking goes well and it’s encouraging to hear you should manage

You seem to be missing the point. People don't want to do this work. That's why they bring in people every year who are prepared to do it. So unless you want to conscript people then it won't happen

That's not true. Loads of people have applied for these jobs and heard nothing. I'm not sure exactly what's going on, but it's not that people don't want the jobs.

Millions have just been made unemployed or are at threat of it, of course people want the jobs!

On the radio, they talked about how there is actually some skill involved, and the farm workers being flown over are the same people who work the fields every year. It's not the unskilled labour people imagine and perhaps the farmers don't want inexperienced people as they won't work fast enough to make minimum wage. I don't know if this is true, but it's not as simple as people don't want the jobs, that's a myth.