Being brutally realistic - how bad do you think it will get?

[JesusInTheCabbageVan]

Sorry to muscle in on your forum.

I've just been doing a bit of reading, and have read that the UK imports around 80% of its pasta from Italy and maybe 50% of its rice from India. So assuming significant shortages of both imminently, there will be a significantly increased demand for potatoes and other British produce, combined with a shortage of migrant workers in the fields.

Am I oversimplifying? Or is all this already blindingly obvious to those of you who are used to planning ahead?

To those who are experienced in growing veg:

We are in a 2 bed flat with 4 kids under 5 (was supposed to be a stop-gap but corona has put a spanner in the works so we're stuck here for the foreseeable future). It's very cramped, and we have no garden.

We have windowsills around 5 inches deep and I'd like to grow some staples. I was thinking onions, potatoes, tomatoes, carrots. Does this sound doable? From memory, potatoes can be very sprawling...

I wouldn't grow any of those on a windowsill except tomatoes and those would be cherry. Think smaller. Garlic? Herbs like basil. I'd think of peas if you can be clever with space.

If you are inside with no outdoor space at all you could look at beansprouts, cress, herbs, salad leaves, spring onions, peppers, chillis, peas for pea shoots rather than the peas themselves.

You can't grow potatoes or carrots on a window ledge

Some good ideas. Thank you both. I thought I might be able to get away with the short round carrot varieties made for stony soil, or is it a sunlight/temperature thing?

I think peas would be doable. The master bedroom has 2 enormous windows, so if one were to be obscured somewhat, the room would still be nice and bright.

Here's a mad idea about indoor spuds. Locate a spot near a window somewhere in your flat. Do you have something like an old paint tray to collect drainage? Or an old washing up bowl. Something not too tall and plastic. That's your base. In that sit something like a thick plastic bag - big Debenhams bags are usually quite tall and tough. Or sacrifice a long life supermarket bag. There are probably holes in it already but add a couple more.
That's your growing receptacle.
Get a couple of shop bought potatoes. Sit them in an old egg box with the eyes pointing up. Let them sprout some stubby green shoots.
That's your seed potatoes.
Is that doable?

Don't forget that you can make pasta, assuming, of course, that you have flour (preferably 00 although there was a chef on TV during the week saying it was possible to make it with plain or strong bread making flour).

I was listening to the food programme on Radio 4 a couple of weeks ago. It was about the impact of the coronavirus on food production in Italy.

They were definitely not scaremongering. In fact they were trying to reassure people that there won't be a problem with food supply.

But the impact has been so great that I don't see how there can't be an shortage at some point in the future, particularly of tinned tomatoes. The supermarkets might be getting plenty from their suppliers now, but I think the suppliers will have difficulties with importing what they need.

We can definitely fit a bag for life on the windowsill. I think I actually have an old DVD storage tub (long and narrow with some slight ribbing). That could work for the base.

@Spanneroo , I meant to put it on the floor rather than the window. Not pretty but it might work.

@Barbararara China won't come out well. All the countries that have largely dealt with China and relied on manufacturing and exports will be rethinking. We've all realised how fucked we are relying on them. Countries like Australia (who can't even produce their own ventilators. The UK has James Dyson. The US has GM), UK, US - will all start making deals with each other on these fronts.

stella I don’t think food will be a problem as rice or food as such is available in plenty as usual and the government will make every effort to feed the nation during these testing times

Is that like the posts over and over saying not to worry I'll just get an online delivery we had a few weeks ago? I like your optimisation.

Stupid question but do you plant potatoes from other potatoes? Can you order the seeds or bulbs or whatever online? I know nothing!

I got my seeded potatoes from wilkos bit no idea what the situation is like now in the shops. Ive never known success from bunging a potato from a pack though.

I do admire anyone growing onions, those things are stroppy.

*optimism

I think there will be a shift in the job market and a lot of Europeans will find that they can plant and pick veg / fruit after all.

We just plant potatoes from our last crop each year, start letting them sprout now (basically let some spuds from the shop get old), try to get some type of fertiliser (we ask the farmer for cow poo, but if your in the city is may be simpler to go to a shop ;-) ) plant, water and wait!
I'm pretty sure my grandparents even cut their potaotes before letting them sprout to make them go further, I've not tried that though.

We will begrowing our potatoes for the year, and a few other veg for fun, and picking fruit for the years squash and puddings, but we always do that.

We sold a few acres of land belonging to our late DM a couple of years ago. Got a feeling I'll live to regret that.

@aussieaussieaussieoioioi the reason I think China will come out on top is that they are ahead of the rest of the world by months, and their regime is capable of decisive action. Their global markets will be in recession which slows their growth potential. While countries might prefer to be more self-reliant, Europe and America will be on our knees. I think China will be in a comparable position to the US after WWII - dispensing aid, taking on a more powerful role on the world stage. This pandemic will likely tip the balance of power in favour of the Asian countries.

@barbarana fully agree, they took swift action that others didn’t or couldn’t and will get back on course very soon.

And China are now sending aid to African countries ahead of their cases (Jack Ma sending PPE, masks, ventilators to all 54 African nations). They already have a large finger in the pie in many African nations' economies.

Are there any fruit or vegetables that would work in plant pots outside? Our soil is clay mixed with builders rubble so no chance of planting. I do have some pots and compost, and I saw Lidl selling seeds the other day. I've already got some tomato plants on the go, which I do every year.

How big and deep are your pots?

Lettuce is an easy one , and herbs of course. Others depend on what size pots you have.

Loads of things go in pots. Home Grown Veg in YouTube has recently done a square foot garden type project in pots.
I've done kale, potatoes, tomatoes, onions, chickpeas, cucumbers, runner beans (so pretty with a wigwam) even carrots in pots. Not massive yields (apart from runner beans) but do able. I'm not a fan of courgettes but I reckon they would go too.

I have so many seeds ready to go and which should have gone and it is so frustrating. Dh was seriously ill in February and now I'm in bed with COVID. Is it worth trying even if technically late or should I save the seeds for next year ? TIA.

I used to grow potatoes (outdoors but I'm sure it would work inside) in those big Sainsbury's'elephant' bags!

My reasoning was they wouldn't get loose & take over the entire garden that way. I'd just half fill the bag with compost & shove a couple of sprouty potatoes in it, then once the plant had grown then died back, I'd tip it out, retrieve a nice crop of potatoes & re-use the compost.

I'd have about 10 bags on the go, planting a couple every week to ensure a fairly regular supply. Obviously that's more room than you're probably going to have in a flat, but the bag idea definitely works!

If there are food shortages, and the price of food is going up, should we now be prepping further?

Is it true 20 folks went into an Italian Lidl and took their trollies out without paying? Now there are armed guards?

I am being responsible and not shopping, happily using up all our prepped supplies, in the hope things are going to get easier. Based on the advice here, I have now ordered a corded telephone and also I will plant potatoes.

I am supporting my family with a calm attitude to providing food and entertainment for them, but as the weeks have ticked by I am becoming a bit more uncertain that we have already seen the worst. Maybe things will get really bad and I should be preparing further. I hope not!

Like the OP said, ’Realistically; how bad do you think things will get?’ Are we talking civil unrest, are we saying that as the death number gets higher there could be international conflict? Or do we think that in a weeks time we will be able to pop out and start replenishing our stocks, and it will be safe to do so?

I keep pondering this question and personally I think the food supply could well struggle in the coming months and am following a food manufacturing website for news. It’s better to be over prepared but we have used up most of our shop bought supplies in a few weeks so I have ordered extra in lots of pasta and tinned tomatoes . My biggest fear is the extent this could affect every country as we are so codependent with exports , work force for pickers etc . I think those of us with gardens should grow extra for neighbours if can and also feel grateful it’s spring and growing season is beginning

Ps I didn’t answer all your questions but personally think it could go either way