Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

You see there's a point that needs shifting imo in public awareness that otherwise intelligent people think hand washing advice is hysterical or applies to other people only.

How worried should we be?
I'm SAHM, DH retired early.
DS is 12, at the local secondary school.
Dd is at uni (Imperial.) She's already said many Asian students there wear face masks routinely.

Petrified of a big outbreak since reading that 60% of the world could be infected by it (Guardian.)

I get the feeling we're not being told the whole story tbh.

Would adding surgical spirit to hand gel be a good idea?

There needs to be public advert campaigns in hand washing. It should be said over the tannoy at train stations. Complacency is what will make this thing spread.

Yes miss1973 it needs to be 70% so adding it makes it more effective.

I just don't understand the mentality of people brushing it off at all. Infuriating.

I think my husband can often be overly blasé about things to sort of compensate for my propensity to worry too much, maybe as a way to reassure me, but we've had a few cross words about it recently as I'd at least like to know that he is listening to what I'm saying!

Thank you ofwarren

The main issue so far is that no one can trust the info coming from China.

16% in ICU is scary. That's roughly in line with figures China have provided though?

As I understand it the Worthing case IS one of the cases already accounted for in the "Brighton" cluster. It's not an unknown transmission.

Study in Japan saying that half of the transmission cases happen when patient 1 is not showing any symptoms whatsoever.

We’ve seen this said repeatedly. And yet our government is still advising those returning from affected regions to self isolate if they experience symptoms.

I've been quite calm about the whole thing but I do think the A&E nurse in Worthing could be the tipping point.

I'm struggling to see how PHE can follow up on all the potential contacts and isolate them before they've potentially passed it on to so many that containment isn't possible.

If this is the case it goes to show that you just need one unusual circumstance for containment not to work:

• Steve didn't come from China so no immediate self isolation as had no reason to think he would have been infected in Singapore at that time

• Unfortunate that he happened to know people in the medical profession - assuming A&E worker links back to him somehow

• Unfortunate that an A&E worker got it who will see many more people in a day than most people and be in close contact with them (another potential super spreader)

I can imagine Europeans right now - first Brexit, then we fuck up containing COVID

www.theargus.co.uk/news/18229247.brighton-coronavirus-absence-school-will-unauthorised/

"Today it announced that parents were expected to bring children to the school and that any absence would be recorded as "unauthorised".

There's going to be a lot of goodwill eroded between parents and schools if this carries on.

Bad communication.

Threat of a fine wouldn't stop me from keeping my children off if I felt that was a sensible step to take in my area. I'd just phone them in sick.

No one is going to be chasing up unauthorised absences when the shit hits the fan anyway. Parents should just do what they think is best for their children. Half term can't come quick enough and I suspect the situation will be clearer by the time they go back after the break.

Am imagining that PHE only updates test results and announces new confirmed cases at 2 pm every day? Or am I making this up? If this is the case I wonder what today's announcement will bring? The prisoner hasn't yet been added to the official list has he?

Wheresmymojo I was thinking about that last night, how unlucky that Steve happened to not only be such a sociable and active fellow but he also happens to be mixing with doctors and health professionals. This could well be the 'spark' WHO were talking about the other day!

I wouldn't be taking mine either. roll on half term.

@wheresmymojo yes I agree contact tracing will be very difficult if numbers increase. Also I can't believe that Steve was the only Brit that attended that conference. Where are the other cases? Has anyone done the contact tracing for those conference attendees?

@LittleSwede yes I think the PHE update is made daily at 2pm, they said yesterday that they weren't making any other announcements until 2pm today.

I saw a message on the train times board at West Ham tube station last night, advising to sneeze into a tissue, dispose of it and use hand gel afterwards.

Hello, been lurking around for a while, so thought I'd pop my head up I'm getting increasingly worried about this virus now, especially as it's about to be half term and we live right in the middle of a tourist area so there's going to be tons of people from all over the UK flooding in here for holidays next week.

I was wondering where the 70% alcohol figure for effective hand sanitisers is coming from? Everything I've read suggests anything over 60% alcohol will be effective and it's not a sliding scale (ie a hand gel thats 62% will be just as effective as one thats 80%)

@NearlySchoolTimeAgain The bayliss and harding hand gel is listed on amazon with a pic of the back of the bottle. It's 73% ethanol so would be fine.

Ariellabella, ahhh, so I wasn't just making that up. I will be watching the news at 2 pm then.

On the other hand, re Steve, I also wonder if it's lucky that he is a responsible person who upon realisation that he may have Covoid-19 (did I get that right?!) He immediately self isolated and sought medical advice. How many travellers from the affected area are walking around with 'just a cold' and spreading it further?

Ariella. As I read it the Brighton man phoned the health authorities here after being told he had been in contact with a confirmed case.

Otherwise it wouldn't have come to light I presume.

Our local Boots has had a fresh stock of Milton hand gel and spray disinfectant delivered since last week. They don’t seem to be flying off the shelves at all. Also, a whole stand of generic paracetamol set up on display.

Yes, I remember doing a bit of an eye roll at the time as Singapore said that they had contacted the public health authorities of all countries that had foreign nationals at the conference.

However Steve phoned it in himself so whoever got the call at PHE didn't follow it up immediately presumably.

That being said - the conference was by one company and news will often travel faster via the company grapevine (like within minutes) than via any Govt departments across countries.