Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I can't believe it's all Brighton Man! How dies he have the energy? Perhaps that's why he has recovered so well....

Tonight's project is baking for the freezer. Banana bread and shepherd's pies. My kids will always eat that when they are ill.

can't click on that link mojo

The London rumour has been deleted so may have already been confirmed as BS

I’m confused - who is Steve Walsh suspected to have infected now? The London GP or the inmates?

On the Guardian live page

"The Cornerstone Community Cafe in Brighton remains closed after it emerged one of the latest coronavirus cases attended a yoga class there.

One of the web of people infected with the virus through businessman Steve Walsh had taken part in a Yoga For Runners course at the community centre on Hove’s Church Road.

A sign on the door reads:

Yesterday we were advised that a member of the Cornerstone is now being cared for by the NHS.

We have been reassured by Public Health England that no one else is at risk. "

Wonder what makes them so sure that no-one else is at risk?? What about the other people who attended the yoga class?

@bellinisurge, I think receiving both the bread and wine at communion may be a Protestant thing? I'm not Catholic myself so might have this wrong, but I'd understood that traditionally in the Catholic church the priest partook of both, but the congregation generally only received the bread, due to complex theological debates which go straight over my head. As a lapsed Anglican, it's def both in the CofE - germy common cup 'n all. Let's hope the church takes a "God helps those who help themselves" approach to this, and suspends sharing the chalice, as I think was advised during swine flu.

Busy executive, father of two, scoutmaster, prison vistor, skier, runner, yogi and regular at his local... Is there anything this man doesn't do? I'm hoping he draws the line at charity kissathons...

*visitor

We have 'wine' ( non alcoholic) in little individual cups at communion and have done ever since swine flu. We are non- conformist though (or perhaps just lacking the faith that God won't let us get infected!)

“Brighton man” is going to become a meme, isn’t he?

www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7991129/amp/Jumpy-Britain-red-alert-coronavirus.html?__twitter_impression=true
British prisoner with suspected coronavirus 'collapsed in his cell after returning from a jail in THAILAND' sparking outbreak fears at HMP Bullingdon in Oxfordshire as three inmates are tested

Worldometers site showing a slight increase in death rate to 19% of outcome cases..

I wish I had a fraction of Brighton man's energy. I'm younger than him and only have one DC, and I'm still too knackered to do anything apart from work, the school run and occasional housework :-). They'd love me, my only contact to trace apart from work colleagues and the after school club lady would be the Ocado driver, and maybe the postie if we'd had a parcel delivered that week.

Sorry - I was joking about the prison being Steve/Brighton man!

During swine flu we went to a non conformist church that used individual cups in a little tray.

I now go to a germy CoE.

Interestingly the vicar has a hand spray she uses. For the germophobic like me.

It just interested me that we are avoiding touching faces, washing hands etc then.. doing other things without thinking about it.

Already mentioned putting the shopping away.
Communion/ peace/welcome at churches.

Then there is using your mobile phone, out and about then at home.

Oh dear have to laugh at Brightin mans energy and hectic socail life. Also visions of a pp drinking custard by the gallon. I guess a sense of humor is better than panic.

My friend agrees that theres not enough police or army to enforce widespread quarantine.

I was watching the kids at Rainbows sneezing over each other, holding hands and rolling on the floor then sucking fingers and concluded I'm doomed.

I am getting a bit worried about my mum. Shes the first OAP to rush out when it snows for zero reason except to get milk she doesn't need 🙄 so any outbreak near her and she would probably be very meh about any risks

You know, under better circumstances, Brighton Man should be the face of Berrocca - he's an over achieving legend.

Nurses 'including one who is pregnant are being forcibly held in quarantine after treating patient with new suspected case of coronavirus'

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7992483/amp/Nurses-forcibly-held-quarantine-treating-patient-new-suspected-case-coronavirus.html?__twitter_impression=true

psandman.com/index-infec.htm#corona

www.theargus.co.uk/news/18228018.amp/?__twitter_impression=true
4 doctors surgeries closed in Brighton now.
I read that 5 schools also have people who've been in contact and parents can withdraw their children

Is anyone else uneasy at the media label 'super spreader' and constant reference to him as if he purposefully infected people?
I know they had to put a photo out there to warn people he had been in contact with but it could potentially put him at harm if for example someone dies as a result of him passing it on unknowingly and relatives go looking for him or people start blaming him for the virus spreading over here.
I know it sounds silly but I've lost faith In people acting rationally

@CrapTVAddict yes I feel really sorry for the guy.

Doing some number crunching for the region I live in and making myself scared and depressed.

Population of 700000 with 3 hospitals with a total of 1600 beds (including mental health and maternity) between them. This includes 33 critical care beds across the 3 sites (this is apparently the lowest ratio of ICU bed to population in the UK), no ECMO in the region.

If the Imperial college guy is correct with his estimates in the event of a pandemic 60-70% (455000) of the population will be infected, 1% would be expected to die (4550). 5% would be expected to be 'severe' ( 22750).

So lets say public health and quarentine decisions manage to slow things down so these numbers are spread evenly over a full year, and lets be optimistic and say that the hospital can 'turn' around a severe patient from admission to discharge in an average of 2 weeks. That still means there will be 875 severe patients requiring beds at any given time, many of which would only survive in one of the 33 ICU beds available.

Not ideal really!

What about the heart attack victims, stroke victims and urgent cancer patients post OP that need ICU? If you watched some of the NHS documentorys on Nottingham and London hospitals, they are constantly jostling for ICU beds on a good day. I'm not convinced the NHS can cope.

Big outbreaks would need some extra wards somewhere. Where will the extra icu staff come from?

Are people needing ICU for oxygen only reasons or are they using the life support equipment? I'm just wondering if it's easier to deal with if it's only oxygen related. I'm probably talking crap though. Each bed bay in the hospital has the pipe for oxygen.