Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

This is interesting... and mildly reassuring...

www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/exe552/coronavirus_faq_misconceptions_information_from_a/

Interesting article interviewing an ICU Dr from China.

Bodes well for the theory that mortality rates are lower than the 2-3% estimated...

www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/reporters-notebook-life-and-death-in-a-wuhan-coronavirus-icu

The poor medical staff bearing the brunt of this and the high infection rate within them.
Just the bravery of nursing without adequate protection and working an all day shift without food or drink - wow.

According to this tweet, this is a film of huge queues outside a hospital in Shanghai...

twitter.com/AngieBlu7/status/1225370033104150529?s=19

On the upside that queue is of people that don't seem very ill (able to stand for a long time) so it may just be that everyone with the slightest cough or cold is going to the hospital to try to get tested...who knows....

Is it actually a queue for a hospital? It could be for something else.

Can someone let me know where the FluTrackers thread can be found.

Can you imagine the AIBU threads in a few months when people claim you can't have coronavirus unless you are hooked up in ICU? oh boy, that's going to be frustrating!

Link from BadKitten earlier

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/826869-china-2019ncov-cases-outbreak-news-and-information-week-6-february-2-february-9-2020/page13

flutrackers.com/forum/search then click on latest activity.

From one of the mild quarantine hospitals: twitter.com/fredilparigino/status/1225377295357161472?s=21

OhYouBadBadKitten - thank you. I'm sure that'll keep me occupied over a cup of tea this afternoon!

I don't see what the problem in the quarantine hospital is about them being close - they've all already got the virus...

Thanks @HasaDigaEebowai (excellent name choice btw, let’s hope we don’t get to railing like that in the UK by March)

From Campbell’s video where he was talking about work done on SARS like viruses the results seemed to be that median humidity and warm > 20C up to 40C was the least favoured environment.

Which fits with what the epidemiologists on CGTV were saying about their thoughts that this might die down in the summer but re-emerge in the Autumn.

Whether I can spray the masks and pop them in toaster bag in a low heat oven for sanitisation may or may not prove tinfoil hattery.

No news from COBR?

Whether I can spray the masks and pop them in toaster bag in a low heat oven for sanitisation may or may not prove tinfoil hattery.

Yes perhaps spray with dettol/milton and bake in the oven?

@EmmaGrundyForPM
Under new regulations if you have a cough, you need to get it checked out, hence large queue and people in it who look healthy: they may just have a cold.
Regulations sent yesterday, I think.

Looking at that twitter feed there's a video from the US evacuation flight. I think the problem I'm having is that they're saying it's mostly a mild illness etc but they're acting like it's Ebola. The staff on that plane are wearing breathing apparatus.

Basically I think what they're saying is - China's measures are slowing down the spread giving us a limited window of opportunity to try and put things in place in poorer countries which will then halt (or slow) the spread to your own countries in the West

I think (hope) we have a lot to thank the Chinese people for in limiting the damage.

What's the flu tracker thread? Is it on here?

@HasaDigaEebowai not being all doom and gloom but do you think you should phone 101 and ask about DS as you said the 4 teachers have returned from China? Absolutely probably he just has a virus but if anything comes of anything, then they have a chain of infection to follow?

I agree, the steps China has taken have been enormous. You cannot imagine the work going on to halt this virus in addition to all the medical work. Some of the things that have been implemented:
Suspension of school and introduction of home learning
Temp checks everywhere
Road blocks re leaving provinces
Control of entry and exit to compounds
Closure of restaurants etc
Regulations re reporting illness
Controlling who can leave home and how often
14 day quarantine if you move in China eg travel to another city
Home working
Closure of factories
This is just in my province, Jiangsu, which is not the epicentre of the outbreak.

Excellent new thread! (thanks @wheresmymojo)
I posted on the old thread but decided to take a break from the thread as it was making me even more anxious than usual (@MynameisJune decided to take your advice! and take a break).
Amazed the original thread had 40 pages and this already has 13!
Im back now! Yeay...

I’ll be very interested to see some of the studies done in a few months once there are more peer reviewed data and studies/literature reviews etc. A lot of these initial studies and data, while very interesting and certainly useful at giving a general picture; may not be controlling for certain variables and a lot of it at this stage is providing possible reasons or theories, with the caveat more information is needed. It’s going to be some time before a full statistical analysis can be made from enough data to get a true estimate of the scale and things like true fatality rate etc.

(That’s not to say stop posting links - as I say, they’re very interesting and much more accurate than wild social media rumours and the absolute zero comms coming from our own government!!!)

Re: cleaning/baking/reusing masks; I think I would put that in the “if no other option” like. My understanding of a lot of the protection from these masks comes from the filter itself and the tightness of the fibres - my fear with cleaning/washing and heating the masks would be that it would degrade the fibres and provide less filtration and protection. Not massive tears, just for example going from 5 microns to 10 microns. Would still help with protection from splatters etc.

BookofJudith interesting science behind when we may see peaks and troughs of infection over the year - and much more scientific than my dumbass first thought of “well I always get less sick in the summer!”

NaturalBornWoman once been thinking about why we see certain people wearing more PPE than others - my theory is that healthcare/quarantine staff could potentially go from dealing with one set of possibly infected people, to vulnerable immune compromised people. Hence why it would be so important to reduce the chance of cross infection. Plus healthcare staff will be dealing with the most sick, probably more coughing and spluttering, so more chance of infection. Other people who have minimal contact (like the infamous bus driver) have a much lower risk so can wear less.

Or maybe I’m just saying all that to make myself feel better

Another case in England according to department of health

If everybody with cold or flu symptoms has to queue up to get tested (Am I understanding that right?) that seems like a very good way of spreading the virus from those who have it to those who don't.
It must be incredibly difficult to keep it contained.

In regards to heating the masks there is a post on the flu tracker site saying not to use the microwave as it will damage the mask and contaminate the microwave but you can use a hair dryer in certain circs.