Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

Obviously haven't woken up properly, used alarming twice!

Eek thats a high mortality rate. It seems to be betting higher now that more cases have resolved one way or another :-/ I suspect this is going to be a big one.

I don't think (and sincerely hope not!) that the power supplies will be an immediate issue but just a note in case it helps anyone generally, as I wasn't aware of this myself until recently.

The power suppliers have a Priority Services Register which apparently will give you advance notice and priority in the event of power cuts (and different suppliers also offer differ benefits too). For example, I have essential equipment relating to a disability that requires power (that's a whole other worry!) I believe that families will young DC are eligible too, but if you contact your supplier they can advise.

I really don't see how we can contain this if they keep allowing people to travel. How would we even know if the usual coughs and colds which circulate at this time of year are the virus or not in the early stages.

For example DS1 has been off school for the past three days with a raging temperature, sore throat and has been wheezy. He's basically slept solidly for two days and I suspect he'll sleep much of today too.

I've assumed he has a viral infection. I've not sought any medical advice and have just been dosing him up with lempsip. That's even though I might tend towards the more paranoid end of the scale regarding these sorts of things and he has every symptom.

So if it does start to spread I suspect most people will assume they just have a "normal" cold virus and try to carry on normally as much as possible. We're not China, towns aren't going to be locked down, people won't be welded in to their homes (thank goodness), adults will still face pressure to go into work, people in the UK feel they have the right to do whatever they want and behave however they please and many people can't stay out of the shops/starbucks for more than a day or two. It will surely spread like wildfire. Most people live their lives in comfortable denial thinking nothing can ever go wrong.

(Pretty sure DS doesn't have coronavirus by the way - even though 4 members of staff at school were in china a few weeks ago..)

@handsoffisback you don't understand the point I was making at all.

I am hoping that 4.25 is of the 25% I've heard quoted as needing hospitalisation, making it really a 1.06 rate. Still not a pleasant number over a large number of infections.

@handsoffisback you don't understand the point I was making at all.

Its perfectly logical to suggest that military bases could be used in the case of an epidemic. They can be contained and controlled. The families of military personnel and the military personnel generally based there would be moved out, just like the nurses in the wirral have been.

All German cases noted as in recovery with mild symptoms, none required intensive care

Well that’s interesting and reassuring but are some of them still in the early stages?

@HasaDigaEebowai yeah, I know I was only giving my take on it (can't believe it's still being questioned for no reason) but for the time they were there you would keep them there and they wouldn't be coming or going at all. Everybody would be quarantined there on lockdown. Staff too.
That's obviously not me underestimating the military in any way. Without outing myself I've been a medic in the ta. Operations like this would be perfectly possible and less risky to civilians. At the end of the day they are paid to do a job, and that job could be one of the most useful ways of dealing with the situation had it been dealt with slightly differently - in my opinion.

As it goes at the moment there doesn't seem to be any other cases related to the people at arrowe which is reassuring. But who knows until the quarantine time is up.

I see what you mean about people carrying on as normal. Knowing when to self isolate is probably the trickiest question in terms of work and school. Hope your son is feeling better soon.

The FluTrackers thread is fascinating!

As for the mortality rate - it seems the 4% is of the total number of cases they have recorded...but it's still less than clear as to which cases they are reporting.

Some of the memos translated suggest that they are only reporting cases which have developed into pneumonia - in which case it would be closer to 4% of 25% as the PP says.

Well that’s interesting and reassuring but are some of them still in the early stages?

Yes, I've read that the worst of the illness is follows after 9-12 days, until then it is mild.

It seems reasonably clear I'd say that they are reporting:

• Cases of pneumonia confirmed to have been as a result of Coronavirus.

• Not, as I think most are assuming cases of Coronavirus irrespective of the status.

So that would suggest the real number of cases (including those without pneumonia) is at least 4 times higher than the official figures but that the mortality rate is much lower.

Does everyone read the same?

@Dyrne yes I think that's what's fuelling the local groups. There's a real spectrum of colourful stuff being said. Some blatantly niave people that would go in and hug them all if they were allowed and some spreading panic.
I don't want to spread panic, but I've been following this thread and the last and thought I'd mention bits I'd seen. Possibly for some outside opinion for me and some idea to those further away of how it's potentially being managed.
There are much wilder things said, but this particular account I do believe to be more accurate. Obviously I can't vouch for it but I've seen the staff in the videos and from having knowledge of the hospital there isn't another way to get food in or out. Reassuringly nobody there seems to have any symptoms at the moment.

I mean...you'd be pretty pissed off at this guy wouldn't you?

Can you imagine the fallout on your local FB Group if 4,000 of you had to go into isolation because one idiot wanted to go to a wedding?

In Fujian province, 4,000 people put in isolation after man infected with virus lies so he can attend banquet, wedding reception

From the Flutracker thread

This snippet from FluTracker is interesting (report from China)

"Researchers analyzed that nearly half of the 41 patients over 65 years of age were severely ill, but especially not that the older the age, the higher the rate of severe illness, 20 of these patients (nearly half) were 25 to 49 years old, More than one-third of them require intensive treatment, a significantly higher proportion than patients between 50 and 64 years of age..."

I'm basically interpreting this to mean that more than half of severe cases are over 65 but that leaves nearly half of them ages 25-49; of these 1/3 ended up in intensive care due to a cytokine storm (this is further up in the same article).

So you're slightly more likely to be a severe case if 65+ but if you're younger and become a severe case the prognosis is worse (intensive care).

I think the thing that fascinates me most is that they are creating huge 1000 bed wards (with some partitioning for every fifty beds) for mildly ill people and not putting them in hospital (easily cleaned) beds but normal beds and bunk beds. If they don't need specialist facilities, why are they putting them in mega facilities? Why can they not self quarantine? It sounds like an utter horror show to me. I can't cope on a ward of 6 without going a bit crazy.

Also they are looking to test 10,000 suspected cases a day. The scale of that is unimaginable.

www.sixthtone.com/news/1005112/coronavirus-latest-updates
Latest updates from Shanghai based news Sixthtone on the very stringent criteria used for diagnosing initial cases.

This confirms my last post I think (also from flu tracker's translated Chinese official guidance)

"Hubei Province added "clinical diagnosis "classification. And the "suspected case" standard is modified to: whether with or without epidemiological history, as long as it meets the two clinical manifestations of "fever and / or respiratory symptoms" and "normal or reduced white blood cells in the early stage of onset, or decreased lymphocyte count", then Can be considered a suspected case. This is equivalent to the relaxation of suspected cases. Suspected cases with pneumonia imaging features are clinically diagnosed cases. The diagnostic criteria for confirmed cases have not changed."

So:

Suspected cases = two or more of fever/respiratory symptoms, reduced white blood count or decreased lymphocyte count

Confirmed = the above with pneumonia imaging features (and presumably positive CV test)

I don't know if others read it the same way?

Sorry, totally spamming with stuff from the Fluttracker thread but this explains why people can spread the disease without symptoms (from China News):

"Zuo's team also explained the mechanism of Wuhan coronavirus infecting human lung epithelial cells. It is reported that there is a significant difference between the new crown virus and SARS that year. Many of the detected patients have no obvious symptoms. Individuals do not even cough or fever, but the lung CT has lesions; others have no symptoms but But it infected others.

　　In this regard, Zuo Wei pointed out that the virus enters the human body, directly into the alveoli, and quickly activates the body's inflammatory response to attack lung tissue. The expert also said that there is no nerve tissue in the alveoli, so the patient does not cough very much. Zuo Wei pointed out that the type of inflammatory response activated by this virus may be different from the common type of inflammatory response, so some patients' fever is not obvious. The scholar admits that deeper reasons need to be further studied"

I read it that way too. So basically because there is a measurable rate of false negatives they've extended the criteria for confirming diagnosis to anyone who's lungs have the typical 'ground glass' pattern on x-ray.

Does the phrase “intensive care” have different meanings in different places? I was assuming the 25% (or 1/3 depending on which reports) referred to those already admitted to hospital that required ICU care as opposed to general ward care?

I lost my denial about masks/goggles today and bought a small number in my local DIY superstore (alongside sandpaper because I was feeling somewhat shamefaced in my professional workwear, not painting scruffs)

Does anyone have views on P3 fabric style mask reusability if they were soaked in Milton say and left to dry thoroughly before reuse? Or is that madness???

Does anyone have views on P3 fabric style mask reusability if they were soaked in Milton say and left to dry thoroughly before reuse? Or is that madness???

I've assumed we would need to reuse them since they already can't keep up with the requirement. Im not sure they would stand up to being soaked and dried though. I'd be more inclined to simply let them dry out thoroughly on a radiator but I'm no expert.

Edited highlights from the WHO meeting yesterday where they are looking to raise $675m to help poorer nations.

Basically I think what they're saying is - China's measures are slowing down the spread giving us a limited window of opportunity to try and put things in place in poorer countries which will then halt (or slow) the spread to your own countries in the West.

@HasaDigaEebowai

The Dr John Campbell video I linked to earlier is useful to answer part of this question (how long does it live on surfaces, is it impacted by heat, etc).

Not sure about washing/disinfecting...all the info so far has been that they are one use only but I understand where you are coming from.

One of the cases mentioned in the Chinese updates on Fluttracker was traced back to someone standing next to someone with CV for 15 seconds!

@HasaDigaEebowai The Dr John Campbell video I linked to earlier is useful to answer part of this question (how long does it live on surfaces, is it impacted by heat, etc).

Ah yes sorry my bolding was messed up - I was responding to BookofJudith.