Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

The cruise ship news doesn’t surprise me when you consider how quickly Norovirus etc can spread through ships. The close confines are a breeding ground for all sorts.

I live in the US and we go through mild emergencies every winter when we get hit by big storms and have to stay at home for 2 or 3 days while they clear up. One of the first things to run out is always the petrol as the petrol stations only keep enough stocks for a day or so and they cant operate in power cuts as the pumps dont work.I always keep my car topped up with petrol in the winter, just in case.
Im also making sure we are all taking vitamin d supplements daily and pushing the dc to eat their vegetables more than usual. If we do get exposed to n-Cov I want our immune systems working as efficiently as they can. I saw a clinical study that showed significant benefits in recovering from ordinary flu if you were taking vitamin d supplements and specifically it also helped those who had asthma. Im hoping it might have similar benefits with n-Cov. I will see if I can find the study and post the link here.

Well this isnt the one I remember seeing, but it talks to the same points. Most of us are vit d deficient in the winter

news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/02/study-confirms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/

I’ve been thinking about what I would do/eat if there were issues with electricity and water supply and I’m a bit stumped. Possibly because it’s 5am... but most of my extra stocks are freezer foods or things like pasta etc.
I do have a stash of bottled water but not enough to keep us going for very long, possibly a week max if we were prudent

I’ve been thinking about what I would do/eat if there were issues with electricity and water supply and I’m a bit stumped. Possibly because it’s 5am... but most of my extra stocks are freezer foods or things like pasta etc.

We have a gas BBQ with a burner, and a camping cooker - not that I anticipate power outages 🤞

@Dennisreynoldsduster power outages are very very very unlikely as a consequence of the spread of the coronavirus. However, happy to chat on another thread about that. Sorry it has been on your mind so early in the morning.

Oh sorry it I sounded overtly worried it was more a musing when I was thinking of how nicely stocked I am as it just occurred to me water and electricity would be required for most things!
I’ll check out other threads for info as I’d like to have a back up plan A after being without water for three days due to emergency works I always try to have a back up for that now!

I'm not anticipating that power or water would be an issue TBH.

The absolute worst case scenario I'm planning for is that 1 in 5 people get it (like swine flu) but that it has a 2-3% mortality mainly impacting over 60s and those with underlying medical issues.

That shouldn't impact power or water but could:

• Mean that one or both of us are very ill for a week at home
• That we want to spend 2-4 weeks at home avoiding public transport/supermarkets/etc if it's known to be going around the area
• That schools may close for 2-4 weeks or so
• That any medical issues we have we will want to treat effectively at home if possible to avoid GP surgeries, pharmacies and hospitals
• That panic could cause supermarkets to run low on food or on certain items
• That panic could cause runs on banks which mean there's a few days of not being able to withdraw cash.

In reality I foresee it all being a bit more messy / complex than that list suggests.

So for example - it assumes it will sweep around once before any vaccine is available and staying for 2-4 weeks would avoid it. In reality I guess there could be many 'waves' or like swine flu so endemic that it's just pretty unavoidable. I feel like there isn't much as an individual prepper I can do about that but at least I'll have a bit more resilience built in.

I think taking Vitamin D supplements are a good idea - one of the Doctor’s I've been following mentioned them so will order them for DH & I.

Official figures for yesterday:

Update - #China’s total number of confirmed cases rose to 28060, adding more than 3000 cases.

There are 24702 suspected cases.

1153 people have reportedly recovered and the total number of death rose up to 563, adding more than 70 deaths.

Oh plus:

• Potential global recession
• Disrupted supply chains

Again, other than sorting out your own finances as much as possible not sure there's much that can be done at individual level.

If there's some kind of white goods that need replacing that you're worried wouldn't make it to the end of the year (washing machine, etc) it might be worth purchasing now since that's the kind of thing where the supply chain for spare parts and even new items might start being disrupted even if it stays in China.

Paper explaining why some patients have multiple organ failure - basically the virus attaches to ACE2 receptors and as well as being in the lungs (causing the pneumonia) and the intestines (causing the vomiting and diahorrea some get) they are also in the heart, kidneys, liver, etc.

Not sure if peer reviewed yet, I expect not given the timing:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstractid=3532272&utmmsource=dlvr.it&utmmedium=twitter

CNBC are reporting that local officials in Wuhan have been ordered to test all suspected cases by end of Friday (not sure how?)

If this does happen then we'll see a huge change in numbers over the next 2 days but it's not necessarily a genuine increase in cases, just an increase in testing.

All confirmed cases are then supposed to be moved to the new pop up centres in stadiums, etc for quarantine.

Positives are - if this is true then it gives a better idea of actual case numbers and mortality rate will decrease. Will stop spreading through families being cooped up together. There should be a better picture of what remaining spread there is in Wuhan.

Negatives: Some people come up negative on tests two times or more even when they have symptoms and then get a positive test so could be ruled out but still have it. Hopefully they tell anyone with symptoms but negative test to still self quarantine.

twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1225236054690516994?s=21

Also there has been found to be a higher number of ACE2 receptors in men- I haven't managed to find many stats on fatalities by sex- but there may be a higher likelihood of complications in men than women -

www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full#page

I don't have the study link to hand but it seems to be more prevalent in men by c. 66/33 split.

Latest video from Dr. John Campbell.

Focuses on how long the virus can live on surfaces - which is up to 28 days in the right circumstances.

I think I shared the paper some time ago on that but he does a really good job of explaining how/why with proper old school hand drawn diagrams!

His thoughts having read all of the info so far is that this will become a pandemic after clusters start to form in less developed countries.

Pretty much the same conclusion I have come to.

So we may have weeks or even months(?) but eventually it will come to the UK. Hopefully we see the mortality rate drop a lot though when we understand the full extent of the number of cases (I.e. that there are a lot more mild cases that are not captured so the mortality rate is actually much lower).

General little round up:

• One US confirmed case has been noted as recovered

• All German cases noted as in recovery with mild symptoms, none required intensive care

• Both Italian cases however are in critical condition

• The newborn baby is stable so far

• Taiwan have banned cruise ships from docking there

• Chinese city Zhumadian (pop 7.2m) has gone into lockdown. Official figures are 82 cases.

• Expert from Johns Hopkins told a Congressional sub-committee that they don't believe the US will be able to prevent the virus spreading across US

• India has banned anyone other than Indian residents who have travelled in China after 15 Jan

• Japan have confirmed a community outbreak www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049297/coronavirus-community-outbreak-declared-hong-kong

There's a fair few who will have to work during any potential lockdown, medical, delivery, utility, pharmacy, sales assistants, police, security - GCHQ, army etc. Hopefully they'll be top of the list for masks, gloves, antibac as they won't have the option to stay at home. They'll l be working closely with others and constantly touching surfaces others have touched, screens, keyboards, handles etc.

There was a random run on toilet roll in HK after social media rumours suggested it was going to be in short supply.

This is the kind of thing prepping would help avoid...no need to fight over the last pack of loo roll!

www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-hong-kong-panic-buying-shortage-toilet-paper-12400600

Thanks for the News and Study round up, wheresmymojo - things move so quickly it’s nice to wake up to your Status reports!

I definitely agree with your views on main risks (need for isolation, possibly shortages due to panic buying and, later on, issues in supply chain from key parts not being made in China for a while).

ifonly4 I’ve been thinking about that actually - I work for a Utility company but not in a front line Operations role. My role can be done from home for a bit but it’s almost got me wondering if I would be asked to maybe undertake some basic training so I can join Ops if needed to keep things ticking over. Would be good in some ways as it means I need to worry a teensy bit less about having to go unpaid if they ask me to stay home! I’m going to do some digging so see if we have an emergency planning document or something which would outline what the plan would be (I’m sure we must have one, and I feel like being nosy now!)

DrJohn saying that in his opinion this is going to affect the UK "it is coming"

Quite a few reports circulating of various idiots putting people at risk by concealing their condition (including the parents in law that infected their pregnant DIL I posted about yesterday).

This one really deserves special mention...

• Doctor in Heibei told by China's CDC he'd been in contact with someone infected

• Told to self quarantine and report his case to the local authority

• Did neither and continued to run his clinic at the hospital, has been in contact with 100+ people including patients, colleagues, family and friends

Original source is linked via this Reddit thread which provides the translation.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/eznjhg/aadoctorinnhebeiintentionallyyconcealedhis/

I've been following this forum: flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/826869-china-2019ncov-cases-outbreak-news-and-information-week-6-february-2-february-9-2020/page13

Read the bottom of page 13.

Easiest way to follow the forum is to look at the latest posts.

Is that the bit with the alarming 4.25% mortality rate OYBBK? That is really alarming