Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

Thread 1: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/preppers/3805837-prepping-for-pandemic

Thanks.

General prepping advice so far:

• Aim to stock up on the basis that in a worst case scenario schools and places of work/public transport could shut down for 4 weeks or so or you may want to bed in at home for that length of time if there's an outbreak in the UK

• Think about what you usually eat and use; don't stock up on things you would never normally eat (e.g. spam!). Think about UHT milk, pasta/rice/lentils, bread mix, tinned food, multivitamins

• Don't forget pets

• Also think about cleaning products, toiletries, loo roll

• Advice is lots of thorough hand washing so additional soap / whatever you use

• Hand sanitiser generally only works on viruses if over 60% alcohol

• See thread 1 for lots of discussion re: masks and gloves (probably not that helpful, provide some protection but don't rely on them)

• Bleach and dettol are good for surfaces

• Consider stocking up on some things that would be easy to stomach if you had the flu and are easy to make when ill (frozen meals, cup a soups, etc)

• Consider stocking up on meds to relieve flu like symptoms and tissues

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Regular updates here

Are the rest of China figures out yet?

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 less frequent updates but good visual

Bog roll. Don't forget that.

Think about breakfast, lunch, dinner, snacks, drinks, treats, for food.

Think of alternatives to fresh, perhaps frozen,tinned or dried.

Remember that you don't all have to eat the same stuff, but you all have to eat.

That's helpful Hass. Thanks.

Ds only drinks milk and fizzy pop. This makes life difficult.

Checking in.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Just cos you quote them doesn't mean you understand what you are reading.

You can not compare the UK with China for a lot of reasons. You seem to be.

Plus rather than 'prepping for a pandemic' if we have a situation where the disease is uncontrolled and widespread in the UK, we will have reached a point where the virus will most likely be self sustaining and will come in waves year after year. And will already be facing other problems anyway.

Self isolation for the first wave isn't really going to solve your problem either. Not if it's a naturally reoccurring phenomenon. Only viable way to protect yourself long is via a vaccine. And we don't know how long that will take to develop.

The most that can be done is delay progress of a disease and that's beyond the control of the realms of being a prepper and into civil planning level stuff.

Chances are we will run out of stuff we import from China for industry before we become overwhelmed by disease and that will have an economic impact, affecting production and supply chains and our finances before we start worrying about whether we need to self isolate and have tons of food in the cupboard too.

If you havent got money in the bank to cover your bills, a lot of other stuff for prepping for a pandemic is completely irrelevant.

There are limits on what you can do to protect yourself on this. I think a dose of realism over what those limits are, is missing from the thought processes of some here.

Been following your previous thread and been stocking up on meds and food.
I'm most worried about my 7 month old - anything I particular you'd recommend to stock up on? So far:

• nappies
• calpol
• neurofen
• cough medicine
• calpol vapouriser
• dioralyte
• wipes
• multivitamins
• vitamin d drops (bfing)
• pumping to up my freezer stash of breastmilk.

Anything else I'm missing for dc?

Full update for China is:

Cases: 23,865 (+3,239)
Deaths: 492 (+66)

So the vast majority of new cases and deaths still in Wuhan.

@RedToothBrush

I haven't purported to be an expert, I've very clearly said I'm not!

I realise applying the estimated numbers to the UK is over simplified however there are so many factors to consider that I'm not remotely able to adjust for that it's the easiest way for me to understand the worst case scenario.

Everyone else can happily draw other conclusions and share their own thought processes.

My posts were simply pointing out that 'this is just a cold' is not correct. Neither is it correct that its just 'like the flu'.

Everything is an estimate at the moment as you don't actually get correctly calculated replication or mortality rates until after the epidemic has finished.

We've discussed the likely issues with global supply chains and economic impact.

Realistically, other than save money there's not a great deal the average prepper can do about that (and nothing I can do since I'm currently unemployed as of Monday).

I think most of us on the thread appreciate that have a few weeks of tins, Lemsip and tissues isn't the be all and end all in a worst case scenario and are simply working on the basis that it is still better than not prepping at all (whilst hoping for containment).

Agreed re: it having the potential to be a new annual season. Again, nothing the average prepper can do about that either.

This is the official Chinese posting of today's numbers.

Translates as:

24324 confirmed cases
23260 suspected cases
490 deaths
892 patients have recovered.

@RumRumRum

I'll leave the more experienced Preppers to comment. I started the first thread for prepping advice (and don't have DC yet!) so not the best to comment...

Baby:
Clothes, next size up.
Next size nappies
Bum cream
Baby food. ( Equivalent of our tins)

One forgets.

Interesting article on naming the virus - apparently it will have a name announced in the next few days:

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51371770

Place marking. Thank you for starting the second thread. I'll likely lurk and just follow the discussion but wanted to say thanks.

Interesting they are now reporting suspected cases.

A few people on Twitter homed in on the fact that the suspected cases hadn't really increased much (+7 or something like that.

However my understanding is that suspected cases once confirmed via test drop into the confirmed category.

So...if you had 10 suspected cases and 3 became confirmed, 7 would remain suspected if there were no new suspected cases.

In which case there are actually c. 3,000 new suspected cases to keep that number stable IYSWIM.

The BBC has a worrying article by a Chinese resident of Wuhan. Most of her family have the virus but I'm not sure they would appear on any official figures as there are no test kits available

BBC News - Wuhan resident: ‘We’d rather die at home than go to quarantine’
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51379088

Placemarking as finding this thread a very measured source of information. I don't know why anyone has an issue with those of us that take some comfort in ordering in a few more things just in case. I've lived in a country where for political reasons the supermarkets were empty overnight so I prefer to have good back up.

There are limits on what you can do to protect yourself on this. I think a dose of realism over what those limits are, is missing from the thought processes of some here.

Yes, although most scenarios are still going to be improved by a bit of prepping, even worst case ones where everyone in the household gets the virus. A long slow recovery with weakness is going to be hard enough as it is (especially if not everyone in the family has made it through), without adding in having to go out to the shops at an early stage. I see the prepping as just generally increasing the resilience of the household in the face of what might be quite an oncoming storm.