Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

This would really suck - Companies are starting to ask their employees in China to take weeks of unpaid leave.

This report is Cathay Pacific asking 27,000 staff to take 3 weeks unpaid leave.

My view is that Companies should be made to take this kind of pandemic risk on and then purchase insurance for it. With the profits of capitalism come the risks, I don't think they should be able to shove the risks down to the individual workers.

twitter.com/afp/status/1224953228376211461?s=21

I also seem to have missed that there is another cruise ship quarantined.

So we have:

Diamond Princess in Japan (the one we've been discussing). Ten people confirmed and taken off so far.

World Dream in HK - 3 tested positive and taken off so far

Source for WorldDream: twitter.com/afp/status/1225026282108395521?s=21

My Brother arrived in Thailand this morning. I am worried sick

mobile.twitter.com/AFP
The walking ill.

How long is he there for? A holiday?

If so, bear in mind that the risk for any individual is still very, very, very small.

And even then, assuming he's an average healthy bloke under 60 the chances of it being any more than like having the flu are also small.

Thanks for new thread. (Have name changed.)

DH’s cousin works in public health and is very unworried.

But we can all judge for ourselves and those getting shirty about this thread can wind their necks in!

@wheresmymojo - thank you, very kind of you!
I also find it very interesting re the absence of cases in Africa.

A woman being tested from CV in Salzberg apparently escaped overnight and was found back at her home.

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1224993827175436290?s=21

How the hell will people cope with unpaid leave?

Its such a muddy picture. It's hard to tell what is real, what is panic and what is perhaps the Chinese government becoming even more totalitarian. I've spany questions.

Shanghai if there is anything I can help with UK end, let me know and I'll see if it's something I can help with.

I'm in a hospital waiting room right now (routine appointment). There's massive sign at the entrance saying 'stop do not enter if you have flu like symptoms and think you may have coronavirus. Do not use public transport, self isolate...' Reassuring, not.

How can those kerala figures be right? 100 people hospitalised? India only has 3 official cases.

Checking into the new thread, I don't post often but find the info and discussions very interesting. I think I have around 2 weeks of extra food for the 4 of us, plus a few days that we always have. I'm considering whether to increase to 3-4 weeks.

I'm still agonising over when we will decide to 'push the button'. There was a suspected case in a school near us, believe it turned out to be negative but it scared me. My littlest has a serious underlying health condition and regular flu would hospitalise her (she gets the jab, obviously) so it is a serious concern.

Thanks Kitten!
That is pretty poor of Cathay re unpaid leave. My dh’s company is continuing to pay employees: factory is still operational and people are working (they make fibre that goes into masks and other products) but office staff are working from home and of course, don’’t have much, if anything, to do.

@MissusMaker we are in the same situation with our child too. It's hard to know when to make the decision. I'm fully prepared to home educate for a while if it keeps him safe.

A newborn baby has been diagnosed with CV in Wuhan leading to conjecture that it can be passed from mother to baby via the placenta.

Personally I find it more likely that it was passed on via close contact...

Hopefully both mother and baby will be at the milder end and recover although not sure how likely this is for a brand new baby

twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1225016382644862977?s=21

Oh ShanghaiDiva, I’m so sorry things have turned out like this for you and your family. I was talking to you on one of the coronavirus threads and was wondering how you were. I hope everything works out for you.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-live-uk-china-virus-symptoms-japan-cruise-ship-latest-today-a9318046.html%3famp

Sorry, I'm using the Mumsnet app and it isn't working too well. I hope the link worked. New born baby had tested positive for coronavirus.

Cross post!

Correcting myself - this study suggests it may be possible for CV to pass to unborn children but study was too small to say conclusively.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17889450/

Thank you!
Am feeling a bit Fed up and stressed, but know that I am lucky to be able to go back to the uk. It’s an awful situation for so many of my friends in China and I have nothing to complain about.

It's so tough @ofwarren I could keep my youngest at home easily but I don't think there is much point if her brother is still going to school and DH to work (though at least DH can be trusted to wash his hands regularly!). If there is a case at their school I would keep them both off immediately but that's too later really isn't it...

I know you feel you have no right to complain, but you’re whole life is changing because of this, plus you’re leaving friends behind. You’ve every right to be upset/concerned. Hopefully this will all be got under control sooner than expected and you’ll be able to resume the life you all want.

Was that the baby born by caesarean section and initially CV free? I don't think the baby has had any interaction with the mother, unless of course during the birth some bodily fluids caused the infection.

Thanks for the new thread!
Everyone in the office is coughing / sniffing / sneezing I'm keeping my distance in my corner with my hand sanitiser

It's been confirmed in Germany that people with very mild symptoms (more like a cold - sore throat, no fever, general feeling of being unwell) can spread the virus.

This is good news in one sense - the mortality rate is probably lower than currently being reported as people with a cold won't even think of themselves as having anything worth reporting to a GP. Thereoetically it could mean it's even as low as the seasonal flu.

However bad news in another sense as obviously it will spread much faster as people think they just have a cold but then will lead to deaths when it finds someone who is more vulnerable. It wouldn't be apparent in any local epidemic until an abnormal spike in pneumonia cases arose by which time it's too late really

I'm linking to Reddit but there is a link to the direct source in there (in German)

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/ez96lj/novellcoronavirusdetectionnofinfectiouss_viruses/

Thank you. I hope the measures that China has taken are sufficient. I know that some people do not believe the numbers coming out of China are true (not sure I believe them) but the actions the govt have taken are extensive and with no vaccine, the most primitive advice- stay home and practise good hygiene is really the only option.