Prepping for a pandemic 2

[wheresmymojo]

Second thread on prepping for a potential Coronavirus pandemic...following the latest news and information as well as prepping info.

When quoting estimates like mortality rates, replication rates, incubation periods and similar I try to stick to evidence based, scientific studies and will link to sources (unless already linked to them previously).

Generally speaking I use reputable sources of information like well regarded news outlets for other information and will provide links.

Sometimes I may post things outside of this as 'interesting' or such like. I will always caveat these as to be taken with caution.

As much as possible I am attempting not to link to fake news. It's an evolving picture so may not be 100% successful but if something is later shown to be incorrect I will post a correction.

Regarding the absence of cases in Africa, I read somewhere (a reliable source but cant; remember where I found it, possibly BBC or Swedish news) that some African countries do have suspected cases but not the facilities to test, they were sending samples to Europe for testing which will probably delay results coming in. I do find it worrying that things might be brewing in less developed countries.

Cathay has cut down their flights by about 90%. With no revenue coming in, they are going to be on the brink.

I’m not saying they’re right to put employees on unpaid leave, but this is a real crisis.

It’s going to be a huge hardship for employees though. Hong Kong isn’t a cheap place to live.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong has announced that starting Saturday, they will quarantine for 14 days anyone coming from the mainland on arrival.

I just had an email from my medical centre saying they hope HK will be free of the virus “by June at the latest”. 😟

Shanghai check your inbox.

I think @revolution they are hoping it will follow the same pattern as Sars. The Sars outbreak was pretty much over then by the 23rd of June 2003. As it was taken off the Who register of afflicted regions.

I know, but it’s looking increasingly likely that we will never return. We are in the process of moving back to the UK this summer.

This is evolving really quickly, it’s hard to wrap my head around things. I also need to look after our helper, she can’t go back to the Philippines as they don’t allow flights from Hong Kong. She’s like family. We’re going to try and bring her to the UK while this passes.

One of DH’s colleagues lives in a tower block where they’ve got a case. I can’t imagine the worry.

Sorry it’s all so shit and stressful for you, Shanghai

wheresmymojo I was thinking that when reading about the German transmission. Both DP and I have had “cold/flu” where we felt absolutely shit, weak and shivery. Obviously it’s still more than likely to be just that, but the thought of seeking medical attention didn’t even cross our minds as we don’t have any additional issues and could self treat at home. However both of us were still merrily going to work, shops, the pub etc in the run up to feeling crap, so if it had been the Coronavirus how many people could we have infected without even realising?

Your helper will probably be able to get easy work here. Maybe the immigration situation has changed and this happened many years ago. But two of ours did a flit and we knew at least one of them got a well paid job as a nanny in London.

I have a probably daft question about masks...
The ones people are buying-are they the papery ones? I am assuming not medical grade (or are they?)
I understood them to be not very beneficial anyway, and useless once they get damp with breath on them.
Would something made of fabric and washable be equally 'better than nothing'?

www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/business/china-coronavirus-food-prices.html#click=t.co/ElqFMvvOT7 $9 Cabbages, Emergency Pork: Coronavirus Tests China on Food

Officials are pushing to keep produce flowing and prices down as nervous shoppers stock up, challenging the country’s ability to feed itself.

PHE just updated. Still only 2 UK cases, and now all the untraced passengers who flew to the UK direct from Wuhan before the lockdown are outside the incubation period.

Just looking for crumbs of comfort in the overall worrying picture!

Thank you for the thread. It's much appreciated.

@wheresmymojo he’s there for a couple of months and has several fairly serious health conditions. Late 30s

Also, don't know how reliable, but Daily Fail now reporting UK "poised" to ban all travellers who have been in China in last 14 days...

RevolutionofourTime I hope others thinking of leaving are as thoughtful as you - it would be awful to think of all the workers stranded without work or accommodation if their employers abandon them

Funkycats masks are a tricky one. Some of us have full N95 medical grade masks but others have just disposable surgical masks. You’d be hard pressed to get either probably now.

Don’t panic, it really is a last line of defence anyway. Much better to focus on self isolating if necessary, hand washing and careful disposal of tissues etc.

The masks are to protect against fluid droplets so you have to weigh up how useful you think a fabric mask would be. If you do make one then think about how often you would replace or wash them, and I’d wash them separately on a high heat.

If it really came down to it and I had nothing else I’d probably do the same. Would it help? Possibly not, but I’d feel better

But we are still a way away from needing masks so please don’t panic yourself, focus on other ways to prepare and keep yourself healthy.

I am still amazed at how few cases have appeared in India. If that's true (or they are simply too mild for the populace to bother with a doctor), we will have dodged a massive bullet.

My only comfort with Africa is how big the continent is. Distance matters when you are trying to extinguish an epidemic.

Anyone wanting to keep track of developments, the Guardian live blog on Coronavirus is good

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-hospital-nhs-pod-ae-virus-outbreak-latest-a9319476.html Coronavirus: Every hospital in England must create secure zone for patients, leaked NHS documents reveal

Exclusive: NHS bosses told to build specialist areas for suspected coronavirus patients to avoid ‘sure in emergency departments’

Various branches of screwfix still have N95 masks (or FFP3 as we call them in the UK). You have to hunt around on the website though for those that have stock. DSis got some last night at a branch local to her near warrington but all of my local stores have been out for days now.

It must be such a sad and somewhat surreal situation for you Shanghai and Revolution, having to leave homes and friends behind. Are you still in HK Revolution? I feel for the 30.000 expats in China who have homes, mortgages, Chinese spouses and pets etc. Such a surreal situation.

I am having mad thought about a short last minute trip to Sweden next week or week after, in case we aren't able to travel during the Spring and Summer. But am worrying in case it would unnecessarily expose DD to CV at the airport, which would probably be Heathrow, and during the flight.

I've been following this post and the last. I don't get much time to actually type a response but I'm following whenever I can.
I live on the Wirral close to arrowe where the returned are in quarantine. I found this very unsettling to see on my Facebook this morning.

Wirral as a peninsula is very isolated. Three sides are water so you can't just keep driving to the next town. I find it unsettling that the staff in question will likely use the same supermarkets as me and my neighbours. They might even have kids in the same school. Not to mention the crossover with a&e as there are paramedics shuttling between a&e and the wider community. I just think what's the point in having procedures if you're not going to follow them.

As I said on the last thread I don't think what we're seeing on the news is a true account anyway. I'm a local resident and although I don't work at the hospital, I am an nhs employee and have been reading through my email briefs thoroughly. It doesn't add up. Locals say they have been sent here because it's close to hospitals in liverpool. My emails state that the uk is prepared for outbreaks and have two main infectious disease hospitals in London and Newcastle, and two supporting hospitals in London and liverpool.
The govt had a cobra meeting about this weeks ago. I don't believe for one minute that they would isolate quarantined nationals at a random staff quarters that was already occupied just because it's close to a hospital that is not even one of the best two in the country for this kind of thing. There are military bases closer to liverpool that could have been used. I firmly believe that they have been sent to Wirral because it's easy to isolate and close the tunnels and motorways. But local people are so deluded. "Oh they must be fine, they have just been sent here because of our world class facilities"
Apologies for the flurry of posts I'm about to post and I'll try and reply as well, but it's taking me some time to type and juggle little ones.

The Facebook post I was just mentioning

Regarding the quarantined ships; can the military not assist by doing food drops or is this already happening and I've missed it?

I've also got concerns re masks. It's compulsory to wear a mask in public in china and there are videos on twitter (I have no idea how accurate they are) of people being followed in the street having drones tell them to "go home as you have no mask on and we are in dangerous times". I don't know if the videos are real or not but it's worrying.

Supply is low and people only seem to be wearing the one time paper use ones. People that don't have access to masks might be forced to wear the same mask over and over again just to go outside. They could be walking around in masks saturated with the virus for days on end just to avoid being arrested.

If your family was running out of food and the only way to get more was to go to the shop, but you would be arrested if you didn't have a mask and therefore your family wouldn't get the food,if you had no masks then you would have to wear a used one. In a society like the uk where it's not compulsory in public we would obviously just think, well im safer with nothing than a dirty one. But in their society they will be arrested on the street without them according to reports. So they may be risking wearing dirty ones to go and get more masks or food and in walking around in dirty ones, the risk to the public and individuals wearing them are probably higher than if they didn't have them on at all. It's unsanitary.

Unless there's going to be an influx of mask supplies then it might actually be making the problem worse for them.
I'd also be interested to see how they are being disposed of.