Anxious Conservatives thread!

[VicToryA]

As the lefties have one, we need one too.

I have everything crossed for them to win, by however small a margin, and red wine and arsenic ready in case they lose...

I daren't stay up as my nerves can't take it. I just desperately want to wake up to a Conservative government tomorrow morning.

Lefties, please don't intrude. I have deliberately started this thread so as not to pester you on your anxious thread. It feels mean and unnecessary to tell you why you are wrong on your own thread.

Hmm, unless Cameron offers, as they're suggesting on the Beeb, a referendum on PR instead... Interesting.

Penthesileia - your analysis is quite good IMO. There is alot of shrewd playing going on. Don't envy DC in particular.

I don't envy any of the leaders. Pyrrhic victories all round, really.

well put Penthesileia. I think NC and DC have higher stakes though.

Justabout - the talk is GB will offer Lib Dems a referendum electoral reform at some point in the future which is not at all a certainty to actually happen or go the way the Lib Dems want. What DC can offer is a sure certainty of a reform of House of Lords to a PR system.

In effect, DC would be offering the Lib Dems a veto on any extreme policy the Tory party try and introduce via the Commons. It would be a nicely balanced but stable system.

I just cannot see GB offering the Lib Dems an agreement to a full PR system straight off the bat. It will be hedged around with all sorts of caveats.

That is why I thik Nick Clegg will go for the Tory option. Take the Tory offer on House of Lords Reform now then fight for House of Commons reform at the next election which he will have the luxury of determining by siding with Labour whenever he wants to by voting down the Tory Queen's speech at some point in the next 5 years.

Absolutely. If Clegg can secure PR, it could revolutionise the fortunes of the Lib Dems. But, OTOH, if DC concedes PR (or if Labour offer it instead, via the other model I suggested), then there is a risk, for the Tories, unless DC can firm up their share of the vote, that they could be locked out of power for a generation.

Yes, DC would not have planned his triumphant entry into Downing street like this.

PS Anybody "spiving and speculating on the currency market" ?

Dh is although i expect he might be a little offended by the "spivving" reference!

That was a quote from Alex Salmon post Lehman re:short sellers. I am doing some myself so light hearted quote.

I am visiting from the (center)leftie thread. Seems the appropriate thread here to make my confession re:speculating.

Erm... So I gather there are a lot of Conservatives who wouldn't accept PR because it would mean they would "lose power for a generation".

I don't understand this? Surely PR only means they would lose power, if they didn't get voted for?

The first past the post system means that if you have an organised and motivated 40pc, you could run the country and forget the rest. Not so with PR.

Lol @ TDiddy's confession.

Why wouldn't you? Dh started at 1am when the short sterling opened especially early.

Well, they might lose power for a generation because PR would be a more suitable framework for the centre-left parties (Lib Dems & Labour), who can easily command over 50% of the popular vote, to agree coalitions until the end of time, iyswim.

Do people think that DC will offer the NI politicians a get-out clause for NI in return for their support? Surely, with such savage cuts required, this would be unacceptable?

Oh I see. But erm if a group can command over 50% of the popular vote, then maybe that means that group ought to be in charge?

I got is right and made a nice turn but by 11:00rs I lost 25pc of it back. Still haven't taken profit; seems like too much fun. Going up to pub with Labour MP who won in marginal later this afternoon. Perhaps I can offer to buy the drinks and tell them where the cash is coming from :-)

Ha! I dare you

Do you mean giving NI back? I'd be up for that 'cut'

Well, that's what supporters of PR argue: that it is fairer and better represents the wishes of the population. It would certainly make it difficult for parties to govern with a poor share of the vote (which both the Conservatives and Labour have done).

Ho ho, LemonadeDrinker. Careful with that kind of talk...

Alouiseg - well he knows about the private school thing and the job so spivving is only one step away.

All I can say at this point is:
Too tired to say anything intelligent as I kept waking up last night all of a tremble.... but glad to see we've ousted the lefties from discussions of the day. And the Lib Dems lost our local seat to the Conservatives. There is a silver lining!

hang on... how many seats does NI have? If he freed them cut them then he would need less to win, although he'd have to win to do that... hmmm.... let me get google and the calculator out...