Is Reform done for?

[anotherside]

The last several recent national polls indicate that the election of Burnham as leader has seen Labour retake the lead and would probably form a minority government (or better) if an election was held tomorrow. Reform meanwhile is in the low 20s, while they’re were averaging low 30s just six months ago. Do you think it’s game over for Reform in terms of the next election? Is Burnham enough to secure the next election for Labour? Or could Reform claw it back still?

David Cameron not only fucked the country with his Brexit referendum he’s also fucked his own Party by splitting the right wing vote. In any decade of old the Tories would be odds on to win the next election. He thought the Brexit vote would see off Reform, but it looks like seeing off the Tories instead. Wonderful.

Good. So the country can get behind a decent man and a serious party - ie our current PM. Instead of a one issue party of castoffs (Reform) led by a man who has only ever cared about filling his pockets with as much money as possible.

If Reform is not the answer, what is? Surely we can’t keep electing the same two parties and expecting a different outcome, Britain is a downward spiral we need something, someone different, a different course, a new and fresh party,new ideas, Labour waited a decade to get back in power had all that time to think about new policies and ideas, came in, nothing new. Already got ride of one PM.

Turning that around then, how are Reform the answer? What are their policies that are new and will work raise standards of living and reduce the cost of it? How do they plan to address the decline in WC neighbourhoods? What are they going to do to address the housing crisis? And what new and innovative ways are they going to use that means they'll succeed?
Because I could sit here and say the other parties haven't solved the problems. I'll do it differently, promise! Vote for me! But the devil's in the detail.

@5128gap

Because I could sit here and say the other parties haven't solved the problems. I'll do it differently, promise! Vote for me! But the devil's in the detail.

The other parties have had decades to solve problems, but have not succeeded. Hence the rise of support for less well known parties.

There is no guarantee they will be better, but when the others have a long history of failure people will either choose a new party or not vote.

Burnham is not your answer! He is not a decent man, he will tell you a great story, very good at bullshitting but he will only do things that benefit Burnham. He did very little for Manchester, very little against the grooming gangs, see Maggie Oliver, debt has increased, homelessness has increased. Manchester is nothing like it used to be, Piccadilly Gardens are a disgrace! I would like Burnham to succeed for the sake of the whole country, but after seeing who he has appointed in his cabinet I am very disappointed and have come to the conclusion that he is just another narcissist.

Of course, no one could accuse Farage of narcissism...

And given that Reform MPs are currently mostly defected Tories who were largely instrumental in getting us into this mess in the first place, what makes them the answer ?

I suspect that people who take the attitude that 'they can't be any worse than the other two' are going to be in for a very nasty surprise if Reform do get their hands on power....

😂😂😂think this applies to most politicians to be honest.

I agree. And we would have to put up with more of these savages, biting police woman:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74g1gxvwlvo

What is the answer, more of the same is not working, it’s like picking between a shit sandwich or a shit roll, better have one of them because something new might be worse

People have had enough of immigrant problems, no party seems willing to do anything about it, so the people saw anger, it’s to be expected

@anotherside , you wish but absolutely not.

Depends on your underlying political persuasion I guess.
I'm happy to have a Labour government and I'm happy to have a new Labour PM who has said things are going to be different. The things he's said he'll change are the things I agree need to be changed. I don't think he has a magic wand and immediate fixes, but I'm happy with the direction of travel so far.
As far as I can see, the only thing Reform want to do is stop the boats, and I think there are other priorities. I also don't think they're even capable of that as their plan is pie in the sky, and they don't have people of sufficient skill and experience to govern. Their performance in local councils is shambolic and the corruption at the top is appalling.

Not really. The 'people' were a group of 100 maximum, armed with bats, rocks and eggs trying to drag people from their homes. That behaviour is absolutely not 'to be expected' because the vast majority of law abiding people wouldn't dream of it. People who bite police officers are not representative or reflective of the views of 'the people'.

To answer the original question, Reform and Labour are level-pegging on 24% in one poll I've seen.
In the IPSOS-Mori Poll Labour has 24% and Reform 26%,

so the answer to the original question is "No"

Polls at this point in a parliament are meaningless.

Yes i believe so

Then why are they produced?

Some statistician somewhere must find them useful.

Because they give an indication into public feeling at that given time. However unless a GE is imminent they have little meaning for that party's prospects of gaining power. Their value at this stage is only as a barometer to the public reaction to the political events of the week in which they were taken. But people change their minds, as we see by the differing results.

@5128gap

Because they give an indication into public feeling at that given time

They don’t. A sample of 2000 can never be extrapolated to reflect what each registered voter, approximately 48 million, is thinking.

No of course not. But there's a fair bit of science that says they are a strong indicator. Provided the poll is random, without selection bias, representative of demographic and error margin is factored in, why would they not be? Why would that particular 2000 people show widely different patterns to the public as a whole?

Really curious as to how you feel a) Labour is corrupt? And b) how you feel it is more corrupt than Reform? Or do you not mind Reform being corrupt? I’d love to understand this point of view better

I think it’s very simple . If Labour get a grip on migration , get growth moving and job creation , people have more money in their wallet , people feel a collective sense of unity return and a sense we are on an upward trajectory then they’ll retain control . If not they won’t .

If you are a Labour voter, who's just said what you have I am impressed. What a measured statement and it's spot on, for me.