Is Reform done for?

[anotherside]

The last several recent national polls indicate that the election of Burnham as leader has seen Labour retake the lead and would probably form a minority government (or better) if an election was held tomorrow. Reform meanwhile is in the low 20s, while they’re were averaging low 30s just six months ago. Do you think it’s game over for Reform in terms of the next election? Is Burnham enough to secure the next election for Labour? Or could Reform claw it back still?

I've thought a lot about this since yesterday and I think where I've got to is that while redemption/a second chance etc is important to our notion of justice, it's a step too far that he should enter public office, even if that's 'just a councillor' as some have said.

If he truly has changed and I don't see any reason to distrust what he says, he should focus his time now on working on de-radicalisation programmes as he is already doing. That will be a better contribution to society.

Yes. That's a much more concise way of saying where I'm at too.

Reform fall apart when put on the spot - Laila Cunningham, 30p Lee, just awful. Farage avoid interviews as he can’t bear scrutiny and just gets angry

If Reform and Restore merge, that will give Reform the impetus it needs. This ridiculous splitting of the right wing vote is playing into Labour's hands.

I don’t think it would at all. Lowe’s policies are abhorrent to many people who would abandon a merged party. The only party that might benefit is the Tories. In any event the two leaders have already fallen out and would undoubtedly do so again.

Restore came from reform in the first place. Lowe can see that Farage is in trouble and wants to take advantage

I don't know so much. If Farage wants out, Lowe is better placed than Tice to take the reins. Lowe brings with him growing support, albeit critics of Reformers who they see as Tories in disguise. It would also save Farage a lot of kick back if he permanently vacates Reform - whether voluntarily or through not regaining his seat. He's already facing criticism for taking an unnecessary risk with the by election.

Do you think there's much support amongst the mainstream Farage desperately needs to win over for the death penalty for British citizens, while allowing non Brirish citizens to escape justice by being deported? For relaxed fire arms laws that undo the work done to protect small children from a repeat of Dunblane? For imposing laws that dictate what women are permitted to wear?

Exactly that. Added to which, the right is getting pretty crowded now. There are three right wing parties jostling for votes with moderate, one nation Tories increasingly feeling politically homeless. If Badenoch had any sense she’d be moving her party back towards the centre but, as we’ve seen this week, she seems intent on being Reform lite.

Restore will need to strip back rather than Reform conform. Anything other than that and Restore will continue to be a fringe party.

She knows she needs to get those swing votes back from Reform. I am one of those voters. So far, she's doing a good job of getting me back on board.

And she’s lost the lifelong Tory voter I live with so it’s not doing her much good, is it? She’s not gaining anything.

I bet its great fun in your house when it votes to politics or has he swung towards Labour?

Lowe has been pretty clear on his terms. I think that unlike Farage, his beliefs, heinous as they are, are sincerely held. I have him down as a fanatic rather than a grifter, and as such, the less likely to back down.
The other thing that surprises me is that Restore didn't stand aside in Makerfield (not that it would have helped as it turned out, but there was reason to think it would) if he had any serious intention of uniting the right. He has come forward when Reform are weak thinking he can use them to drive ahead his agenda, rather than with intent on compromise. Hence his 5 hard conditions.

What's your opinion on her conduct over the former nazi? Has her betrayal of the Jewish community not put you off?

Agree with all of that.

I always think this - what is the point of those polls? I don’t know why they are given so much attention.

This is a difficult one. She's got balls for appointing him to that role but agree with her on his past bringing a level of experience that no other candidate might. He's seen the error of his ways and she's giving him a second chance. Advocates of rehabilitation over punishment can hardly complain. A Very bold move that will either bear fruit or will come back and bite her. She's shown her commitment to fighting anti-semitism so I'm reserving judgement. Thanks for asking me because you know how passionate I am about this topic.

@pondplants

I always think this - what is the point of those polls? I don’t know why they are given so much attention.

They get attention when they say something that people want to hear. Sadly, UK government seems to make policy, U-turns, etc., based on what they say.

Off topic slightly, but was the reason David Cameron did not have a plan for a leave vote because polls forecast a remain result?

We never used to talk about politics. Then Johnson and Truss came along and our opinions were aligned. He liked Sunak so we diverted for a bit then came together again in 2024. He’ll never vote Labour unless it was the only way to stop Reform. We’d both vote tactically if necessary.

I do. That's why I wanted your take.
As you might expect. I (respectfully!) disagree.
I do support rehabilitation. But there are many ways to be rehabilitated that don't involve causing extra distress to your victims. Jewish community leaders and Baroness Berger have been crystal clear that this man's presence in a public role is inappropriate, distressing and offensive to them. Badenoch has chosen to put her own judgement ahead of theirs, which is hugely disrespectful.
I'm also at a loss as to what realistically he could possibly contribute to the wealth of knowledge that already exists on radicalisation. Experts have researched extensively, going undercover to experience the process and talked to countless radicalised people. His knowledge is also over a decade old.
I think he has value in delivering talks to young men. But in a government role? No. Its like paying a convicted rapist to advise the minister for women and girls on how to keep women safer.

Yes, the best people's opinions are those directly affected by actions. Andrew Harper's family being a case in point.

I do hope so. A bunch of narcissistic, corrupt and opportunistic snake oil salesmen/women.

Andy Burnham is only a couple of weeks in. He isverymuch in his honeymoon period. The media will have their knives into him by autumn, like every previous pm.

Absolutely. The fact that his killers were convicted of manslaughter rather than murder so are therefore amongst the eligible for ER is very distressing for his family, unpopular with the public and problematic politically for the PM.
Not sure what the answer is though, as to make these killers ineligible would give rise to questions about the eligibility of other people in prison for manslaughter. Most notably those who have killed children due to careless driving.
So really we would be looking at excluding many many more people from ER, it couldn't just be Andrew Harper.
This would mean we'd have to stop arresting and sentencing new criminals, because we've nowhere to put them. It's not a problem I'd want to be faced with.