Is Reform done for?

[anotherside]

The last several recent national polls indicate that the election of Burnham as leader has seen Labour retake the lead and would probably form a minority government (or better) if an election was held tomorrow. Reform meanwhile is in the low 20s, while they’re were averaging low 30s just six months ago. Do you think it’s game over for Reform in terms of the next election? Is Burnham enough to secure the next election for Labour? Or could Reform claw it back still?

I'd really like that to be the case. Plenty can happen between now and the next general election though.

Farage still currently has to re-win his Clacton seat.

I think they are on a downward trajectory and I wonder if NF can retain his interest until the next election.
I am sure he will be re-elected in a couple of weeks, investigated and whatever is found wrong won't be bad enough to trigger another election (or if it is, and he's allowed run again, he'll win again). So Clacton will be business as usual.

I don't think he has enough followers now to get a majority of MPs elected. The terrible councillors are giving people pause for thought.

Speculation at this time is pointless, and wishing something to be true doesn't mean it will happen.

I wouldn't write off Farage even if he was declared bankrupt, insane and dead all at the same time. Or rather, I wouldn't be surprised if people still voted for him in spite of it.

Who knows what will happen, hopefully Burnham will play a blinder and all in the garden will be lovely, for all our sakes, but its anyone's guess at this point.

Tice now being investigated for fraud. How any voters can think they or Restore are worth voting for remains a mystery to me. Not too mention the other rubbish they spout

I think they were the moment they took Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman and gave them senior positions.

I hope so... but they are weasels so I wouldn't count them out.

I'm not sure how Reform could gain enough additional support to secure a majority due to their efforts alone. I think the support they were getting from moderates and floating voters has peaked and is reducing in response to the scandals. They basically have one offer, stop the boats. If people see the current government addressing immigration, then what have they got to attract voters?
I think there's a possibility Labour could lose some popularity, which could benefit Reform somewhat, but I doubt enough to result in a majority. There's other parties available to mop up disillusioned Labour voters.
Ultimately the main protective factor is that the left and centre parties will unite to keep them out, as will voters from all other shades who will vote tactically if required.

If the current financial scandals don’t do for them tactical votes at the next GE will.

It was reported at the time that there was serious disquiet in Reform as more Tories were being imported.

Hence Farages deadline (whatever happened to that) for any Tory defectors to crap before the local elections or be excluded.

Reform have forgotten that whatever mainstream support they were gathering was predication on their main selling point of not being the Tory party that has been in power since 2010. Now they have a leader who has been revealed to be incapable of telling the truth, plus a front bench of absolute Tories. there is (and I've heard) it, a great sense of "they really are all the same".

Hmm will Farage “maintain his interest”? I think it all depends whether the multi million pound donations keep on rolling in doesn’t it ?

They seem likely to dry up now, don’t they? Harborne isn’t getting great value for his money.

The Telegraph has published an article today saying Reform back in front. No idea what they’re referring to as I don’t have a subscription.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/08/04/reform-back-on-top-as-burnham-bounce-falls-flat/

I think Farage will win comfortably in Clacton and the "conspiracy" against him will have further entrenched his core support, but I think the whole debacle around the by election and the £5m and other scandals has done them tremendous harm nationally, with more mainstream voters who wanted something "different" at the last election.

Whether they can recover remains to be seen, but if Farage steps away, I don't think they have anyone else who can make them into a credible option. For me, he's not either BTW, but he does seem to have something lots of people like.

I don’t think so. They were never a realistic option to get enough MP to form a government. The only good thing about them being around is they split the right wing vote.

It’s one Yougov poll that puts them one point ahead. I wouldn’t get too excited if I were you.

https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55293-voting-intention-2-3-august-2026-ref-23-lab-22-con-19-grn-13-ld-12

I think his hard core followers are such he could do anything and they’d not care . All they want is reduced migration . Andy Burnham needs to be careful not to alienate the south and London with his cash grabs . If he is just prime minister for the working class there’s a lot of people he’s alienating There’s a long way until an election and I wouldn’t predict anything at this stage .

Not expressed any emotion. Was just checking if the polls had moved and found this.

Here's an archive of the article: https://archive.ph/jPLaf

As to the OP's question, I bloody hope so.

Oh I would get very excited! I am not a Reform voter, but if it meant we get rid of this useless shit show corrupt Labour Government then I would definitely hold my nose and vote for them.

Yes, replacing it with another, much more corrupt shitshow of a government is a brilliant idea.

May be we need people with business acumen not the career politicians we have at the moment, which is not working. I don’t know if they would be better and neither do you, but what I do know is this Labour Government is certainly not working.

Oh I think I do. I can see how Reform councils are working out. It’s not good.

REFORM FOR THE WIN!

GO NIGEL!

I'm joking. Are Reform done for? Nothing like hoping! 😆

You know how all the councils are ran? Our local council is now Reform, I didn’t vote for them, but they appear to be doing well. Actually our Council Leader is an ex Conservative, local business man, very well liked. Would you say Birmingham are a well ran Labour council?

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/politics/5329262-councils-now-run-by-reform-end-of-the-beginning-or-beginning-of-the-end