Is Reform done for?

[anotherside]

The last several recent national polls indicate that the election of Burnham as leader has seen Labour retake the lead and would probably form a minority government (or better) if an election was held tomorrow. Reform meanwhile is in the low 20s, while they’re were averaging low 30s just six months ago. Do you think it’s game over for Reform in terms of the next election? Is Burnham enough to secure the next election for Labour? Or could Reform claw it back still?

I've seen locally that the Reform posters/social media is getting less and less popular. People are challenging them more. They've had a few 'marches' and they've been so drunk, racist and offensive and it's massively damaged their cause. Basically they've shown their colours and people are repulsed. Left-leaning people are feeling more confident about challenging them. I suspect this is what will stop them gaining traction in the end.

@5128gap

With who?

Whoever needs them to form a majority. Happened in 2010. Both conservative and Labour parties approached Nick Clegg to form a coalition. Clegg chose the conservatives.

Again in 2017. Theresa May did not get a majority. So, she teamed up with the DUP.

MPs will do whatever is necessary to get a majority.

They really won’t. The only possible alliance is Reform+Restore.

The situation with Clegg was different. Lib dems are centrist and have worked with both Tories and Labour, so they could have gone either way, gIving Tories support to form a government or refused so the opposition could. The Left and centre parties we have now wouldn't refuse Burnham to support Reform.

@5128gap

They really won’t.

If it gets them into power, they will. Did Conservatives and Labour announce before the 2010 general election they would not form a coalition? No they didn’t, but it happened.

Who would have thought that the DUP would become a coalition with the conservatives? Nobody, but it happened.

The only possible alliance is Reform+Restore.

Parties can make a coalition with whoever they wish.

Possible that Reform or Greens find themselves in the same position as the Liberal Democrat’s in 2010 and the DUP in 2017.

Parties can make a coalition with whoever they wish.

Precisely. And the only party that would wish to coalesce with Reform would be Restore - and apparently only with some conditions that would appal the majority of the electorate.

As we saw with Nick Clegg - a whiff of power and they soon lose their values!

Nail on the head. They're only interested in power for themselves. If they have to sell their soul, most would do it!

Not if they wished to survive. All the political parties have the object lesson of the Libdems in front of them. Their vote collapsed in 2015 and Clegg lost his seat.

Those were actually Blossoms comments not mine. But I agree with her, so happy to respond.
If we had a GE now and Reform did well but not enough to form a government, it would be down to Burnham to form another.
He would then look to other parties to support him, and would find it amongst the left and centre parties. He would then head a 'progressive alliance' coalition government until such time as a subsequent GE gave him a majority, or Reform or the Tories outright beat him.
So Reform would not have the opportunity to try to form a coalition, nor would they be part of Burnham's coalition.
Reforms only chance is to win a majority.

Wow your contempt for British workers really stands out in your post. Freedom of movement only works if all countries have the same standard of living. At that time Poland and Romania were poor countries and their average wage was a fraction of ours. How could our tradesmen compete when thousands of migrants were coming here to work, living in shared houses and working for low wages. It had nothing to do with foreign workers being more honest, hardworking and competent but everything to do with hardworking Brits not being able to work for lower wages as they had families to support, mortgages/rent to pay.

Conveniently forgotten the protests at that time have we?

@Badbadbunny

Nail on the head. They're only interested in power for themselves. If they have to sell their soul, most would do it!

I think this is the reason turnout in general elections is declining. They say what’s necessary to get elected, then do something else once they are in.

First thing they say is:

Look at the mess we inherited. It’s going to take tough decisions to fix things.

Labour won't need to sell its soul to Reform. There are other parties available to work with.

Conveniently forgotten how in demand Polish builders were, have we? And how the cost of getting any work done since they left has skyrocketed?

Now all we need, is the demise of the Greens

@2dogsandabudgie

Freedom of movement only works if all countries have the same standard of living

I agree. The rapid expansion of the EU into Eastern Europe has been detrimental for both Western Europe and Eastern Europe.

Eastern European counties lost their skilled workers as they moved to Western Europe is search of higher earnings. Western European countries had a huge amount of cheaper labour to pick from. So, locals were displaced.

What the Western European countries didn’t work out was that lower wages meant lower taxes received. To combat this government’s had the following choices:

Increase taxes, or
Increase borrowing, or
Reduce spending on public services.

@5128gap

Andy Burham agrees with Farage regards immigration

https://news.sky.com/story/why-burnham-agrees-with-farage-13551961

@5128gap

Andy Burham agrees with Farage regards immigration

https://news.sky.com/story/why-burnham-agrees-with-farage-13551961

Zalanski is doing his best to facilitate that .

The reason being that Polish tradesmen didn't have families over here to support so could afford to work for less. It's not that hard to understand.

@2dogsandabudgie

The reason being that Polish tradesmen didn't have families over here to support so could afford to work for less. It's not that hard to understand

Correct again. Although their families weren’t in the UK, there were cases where child benefit was claimed in the UK and sent to Poland.

Not “done for” but I think and hope their popularity may have peaked

hopefully AB will make a decent go at it which will make them even less attractive

I agree that Polanski has said some (very) questionable things. But there are many Green politicians who I think we’d do well to listen to. Rachel Millward (their no 2) for starters

They had families to support back in Poland. The reason is irrelevant anyway. It’s how capitalism and a free market works.

Was that legal?