Is Reform done for?

[anotherside]

The last several recent national polls indicate that the election of Burnham as leader has seen Labour retake the lead and would probably form a minority government (or better) if an election was held tomorrow. Reform meanwhile is in the low 20s, while they’re were averaging low 30s just six months ago. Do you think it’s game over for Reform in terms of the next election? Is Burnham enough to secure the next election for Labour? Or could Reform claw it back still?

As you well know, my point was that unemployment fell in the Tory years after Blair/Brown. And it's still a historic low, just as your Labour years figure was a prior historic low. As the years pass, the "history" obviously changes when new "historic" highs/lows replace the old ones.

Yes we know new records can happen. Unemployment was still at a record low at the time in the Blair/Brown years. Better than Thatcher.

Actually, it was even lower back in 1973 and early 1974! So it was never a "historical low" under Blair and Brown.

For about a nanosecond.

I have just reread the OP.
It does look as if peak Reform has passed but if the Government has not got to grips with the illegals they are currently stuffing into HMOs and devised a plan to provide an alternative life style for NEETs then many of us will be vey disappointed. We will look for someone else to vote for.
The criticism of Starmer was not so much that he didn't achieve much but he had no plans to do anything about the problems.

There's nothing you can do about people coming over on boats other than what is being done. You target the organised criminals and process immigrants within the law.

The HMOs you mentioned have been the case for the last 10 years. But note no one is talking about the landlords taking advantage of all these HMO conversions....and believe me there's plenty of them. There's always someone happy to make money from a crisis

I'm with the majority, the situation is dire but I'm not willing to turn our legal system upside down to deal with it because I know where it leads. Just the same as I'm uncomfortable with hurting the vast majority of honest welfare claimants to target a tiny minority of spongers.

I live my life in an honest way and try and do best for my family. I don't buy into rage politics that reform promote and if you look at America then you'll know where it ends. What we need is a calm approach not an angry knee jerk reaction that will likely result in someone somewhere getting hurt.

Where people like Lee Anderson start talking about gun boat diplomacy with one of our closest allies then you have to question motive. Firing up resentment among our people is extremely dangerous. It will also harm our relationship with Europe and in turn cost jobs and trade.

If you don't believe me then look no further than the relationship with Canada and the USA, the rhetoric founded on lies has destroyed decades of cooperation and mutual respect. For one purpose to push a popular agenda that was based on lies but ultimately is enriching some of the worlds wealthiest people. Now if you can't see the similarities between that and what Farage is selling then I'm sorry but you are a lost cause. You deserve what is coming to you because what Farage will give you is ultimately what Trump is giving Americans. A return to imperialism run by billionaires. Meanwhile food, fuel and products go up in price and ordinary Americans struggle with a cost of living crisis, the narrative remains....blame the immigrants, blame Biden....while making record commodity trades and raking billions in personal wealth. Is that a president acting in the interests of ordinary Americans? Farage is no different, he's been on the casino wheel, collaboration with Israel and Trump and ultimately an enemy within. The guy is basically a traitor waving a union jack

Things like healthcare, rights, holidays, clean water, education....even the air you breath is all on the table. You might think I'm being dramatic but please pay attention to the world around you and what Trump is doing to the agreements he's shredding. Farage is his links to far right groups across the globe that are pushing a narrative that to steal power from all of us.

I honestly don't know whether Labour can stop this surge but what I do know they will have a good shot at stopping it.

The best thing that Labour can do to keep Reform at bay is continue Mahmood;s hard line immigration approach. It seems to be working - immigration is down. The problem is she can't shout about it - the removal of right of family reunification was a big thing but pisses off the backbenchers. Changing the rules to 10 years before you can settle - big barriers to the draw factor - but again can't shout ab0ut it because of the backbenchers not liking it.

The effect of lower and lower net immigration will soon be felt which will swing the focus from Reform. It is hard to make a case that revolves around immigration if there is no net immigration.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2026/aug/08/how-northern-ireland-race-riots-unfolded-belfast

If UK goes the same way, I would understand why.

Belfast is the UK.

@dwordle I have to protest about you thinking that my post was because I support Farage. I do not.
I am very aware of the problems Trump has brought on the USA. Much is not newly invented though. Americans have different views to us on ecological affairs.
Water quality problems in I think Minnesota were pre Trump as was the contamination in California, the film Erin Brokovitch is based on the mismanagement at Pacific Gas & Electric pre 2,000.

@blossomtoes

Belfast is the UK.

Okay then, to be more precise.

If UK goes the same way, I would understand why.

Shall be changed to,

If mainland UK goes the same way, I would understand why.

The article addresses this:

The Northern Ireland “model” is not necessarily transferable. It has taken a unique mix – the legacy of the Troubles, xenophobia, social media platforms and state acquiescence – to create the toxic climate.

@blossomtoes

The Northern Ireland “model” is not necessarily transferable.

So, Northern Ireland (which is part of UK) can object to immigration, but other parts can’t?

https://quiz.verybrexitproblems.com/

Brilliant. Trouble is choosing between them.

Yep rage politics and a area that has suffered because of Brexit.

I didn’t say that. The riots in Belfast were specific to N Ireland because of the legacy of the Troubles. Kids there have been brought up on stories of their grandfathers’ and fathers’ political activism and they’re seen as heroes. The immigrant population is tiny but has become a new target for violence. The culture is very different.

Do you seriously think burning people alive in their houses is desirable or an acceptable form of “objection”?

@dwordle

Yep rage politics and a area that has suffered because of Brexit.

Troubles in NI existed before either ROI or the UK became members of the European Union. Article 50 was signed by all EU members, Ireland included.

Do you seriously think burning people alive in their houses is desirable or an acceptable form of “objection”?

Well, some people do.
This is what happens when governments don't listen to the people that elected them and treat them badly - you get insurrections. which IMO will only get worse.

This is what happens when governments don't listen to the people that elected them and treat them badly - you get insurrections. which IMO will only get worse.

Correct. Democracy and voting was developed to avoid violence. Prior to that, differences of opinion were solved on the battlefield.

So you’re defending burning people alive?

You also get them when governments are listening to one group rather than another, even when the group they are listening to is the majority. This is why governments should never allow violent minorities to influence decision making. If the violent minority get their way simply because they are violent, its the antithesis of democracy.

Where did I say that ?

You made excuses for them.

Where ?!