What will life be like under Reform?

[Easipeelerie]

I have accepted the likelihood of the next government being Reform. I don’t think the government after that will necessarily be Reform. But in the 4 Reform years, what do people think life will be like for the different groups in our country? Will we see very immediate changes?

Your party had 14 years, but keep blaming the socialists/left

This! The idea that the current state of the UK is 100% down to the government who have been in for a bare 18 months is so cognitively dissonant that it's hard to believe people really think like this.

The idea that the current government is in any way socialist is just plain hilarious.

We have to face facts.

We have an increasing amount of people on state pensions and many more yet to go onto it.

Many millions of working age that don’t work and on welfare.

Many people who work but on universal credit to top up their payments.

Many people who work but don’t earn enough to pay tax, mainly part time workers.

Many people who are lower earners who pay the basic rate.

We need someone to actually tackle these issues head on and deal with them. But I can’t see any simple solutions to this personally. Other than saying we are doomed.

Previous government have certainly got things wrong too. The world changes, and a government's job is to manage that change and adjust policy appropriately. Sometimes there's a delay between a problem becoming evident and the government solving it (like the increase in immigration under Blair, then under Johnson).

But the reason we support one party over another is because we think they get it more right, more often than the others.

Every single policy Labour have brought in during the last 18 months has made the UK worse. I don't expect them to be perfect, but I expect them to actually analyse and think about consequences before thrustring their student-politics wish list onto the public. They don't.

Every time: whatever the sensible response would be, Labour do the opposite. And it's always for naive, student-politics, left wing reasons.

For someone who is so vocal, the silence on funding is notable.

Reform would bankrupt the UK

Every single policy?

I quite like some of Mahmood's.

But can't think of any others where I haven't thought 'FFS, you muppets'.

We also have to face the fact that Brexit was a disaster and has wiped an enormous amount off the UK economy. If we want growth, we need to move closer to the EU and get a better trade deal, if we can't rejoin. Farage was directly responsible for Brexit. It was his brainchild and its been a complete disaster.

We also need to face the fact that Reform are failing spectacularly in constituencies they dominate. 17k spent on flags in Notts. Millions spent on a consultant in leics promising to combat government waste when the LA had already been stripped to the bone. Promising council tax reductions only to go back on it when they realise its not that easy. We have to face facts.

Every single policy Labour have brought in during the last 18 months has made the UK worse.

That's just your opinion though. Immigration is substantially down. Improvements to workers' rights were essential - Reform will destroy these. Closer ties with the EU are a huge step forward in terms of smoothing out trade with what is still our biggest trading partner - it's just a shame that all politicians are so afraid of a subset of the electorate that they dare not say 'Hey, this Brexit was a huge cock-up, let's undo it'.

Overall, the things you see as disastrous are just a matter of them not chiming with your overall political allegiance, which is right of centre. And that's fine, but it doesn't make them facts. Me, I have no certainties - I'm just prepared to give this government a chance without constantly whining about every little thing they do.

@Paul2023 I fully agree there isn't an easy way out - our current predicament is the result of decades of government mismanagement. Given the ratio of Tory vs Labour governments over the decades, most of that is on the Tories, but both parties have made bad decisions (see also: the Iraq war).

Demographics are against us - we have an ageing population with increasing health needs. We are still dealing with the fallout from the pandemic in terms of people whose health needs are major, despite them being working age. We pander to business by giving them welfare - when companies don't pay people enough to live on, we all pay the price in welfare top-ups. The right's answer to this is to let people sink or swim, but better models are available. However, that would mean a change of mindset from the 'me, me, me' that seems so prevalent here.

A decent state pension system where the amount recieved is linked to how much tax the person contributed throughout their lifetime (like most of Europe has) is far lessredistributive

And unaffordable. Because it’s NI based, proportionally high earners have paid less, thanks to NI contributions dropping to 2% on earnings over the higher rate threshold.

Increased spending on the NHS and decreased waiting times? Incidentally my GP surgery is in the south east - don’t complain when you could research your local GP practices and find one like mine, it’s not a unicorn.

Brexit and controlling borders was this misleading information?

Poland and Hungary are both in the EU and joined in 2004. Neither of them has an immigration problem, infact they have closed their borders haven’t they ?

So if Poland is in the EU, how have they managed to make immigration watertight ?

Or do they have a right wing government or is it because Poland is fundamentally a white country who aren’t open to immigration? Do they have a unified country where they aren’t split between the right and left ?

Does this prove that being in the EU means you can still control your borders?

Poland hasn’t closed its borders. It couldn’t as it has to conform to EU freedom of movement requirements.

EU countries have demonstrated on various occassions that they control their borders despite the FoM

Don't confuse immigration with seeking asylum.

I think you would probably benefit from reading up on some EU history and policy. The questions you're asking are fair enough, but the answers are all out there if you're interested in how the EU works.

Poland and Hungary absolutely have not closed their borders. I could go and live and work there tomorrow as an EU passport holder.

Freedom of movement yes but I'm talking of illegal immigration..

They're paying exponentially more overall tax. Even NI: they're still paying more than lower earners since it continues at 2%. There used to actually be a cap, to reflect the cap in social assistance it was paying for. But socialists decided to squeeze yet more out of high earners, with nothing given in return. As usual.

In European countries where pension reflects the tax you've paid, there is a cap. A minimum pension (usually set about the level of the UK state pension) and a maximum pension which goes up to about twice that for high contributors.

They have obviously paid many, many multiples of what the lower contributors have paid in tax over the years. So it is more affordable than making it not worthwhile for ambitious young people to stay in the UK! It's just not acceptable to socialists.

Ambitious young people didn't leave the UK before Labour won the election?

The Tories made it a lot more difficult for them to leave with Brexit, I grant you that.

Yes, Poland closed its border with Belarus and suspended the right to claim asylum for migrants who entered through that border. They believed that migration was being weaponised against them. They're probably right.

Poland has been threatened with fines by the EU - but given the cost of asylum seekers, the fines are considered a bargain.

As you recognise they haven't stopped free movement within the EU. They also encourage highly skilled migration.

It's snowballing.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/d0bce09452dd62b6

Young people with in-demand skills are still able to migrate, even if they don't have an EU passport (which many do). They just need to get a job which will sponsor them. How do you think they've always been able to migrate to non-EU countries?

Can't read that article but read elsewhere that according to wealth managers, young adults are leaving the country owing to low salaries, the rising tax burden and a lack of affordable housing.

That is a Tory legacy

UAE is popular

Seriously?!

owing to low salaries, the rising tax burden

Reeves' two budgets have been the highest tax-raising budgets in a generation: both against salaries and against businesses. What do you think the consequence of that is?!?

As for house prices, everywhere other than the SE they are fairly consistent with what they were historically against salaries. It's only the SE that has gone nuts. That's been across all governments, and is arguably a result of excessive state intervention (ie welfare) removing the incentives for people to move to where the jobs are (which would reduce geographical salary differences) and distorting the housing market through state housing subsidy. Unfortunately ambitious, highly skilled young people disproportionately live in the SE.

One way or another, our current trajectory of high tax and high welfare - disincentivising work and causing our ambitious young people to leave - is clearly not remotely sustainable.

So what do we do? Double down on the socialism, and speed the decline? Or face reality and incentivise more people to work more and support themselves, and close the bloody borders to low-skilled immigrants who incur a lifetime cost of approximately £200k each.

I used the word proportionally quite deliberately. Shame you missed it.

Which is why I mentioned the cap on the benefit recieved, and that there used to be a complete cap on contribution. Ie even the 2% above that cap is extra being squeezed. Proportionallly isn't equitable when there's a cap on the benefit.

Shame you missed it.

What tax “against salaries” has Reeves raised? And where’s the evidence that property prices have risen disproportionately in relation to salaries only in the south east? Presumably you have a link or two to reliable sources?