Reform party

[TalkToTheHand123]

Will Reform win any votes at the local elections?

I know what the response will be (😞) but any chance of any evidence?

I think it’s just been surpassed at just over 100k granted.

The point about Brexit leading to higher applications in pp doesn’t hold. It’s just that lorries were subject to much tighter rules after an event which captured public attention.

What were the systems after 2002?

I don't think anyone has said that Brexit caused higher applications, more that Brexit has made it easier for refugees to make the boat crossings to the UK and has denied the UK access to the Dublin accord and the Eurodac fingerprint database

It’s not Brexit. The Dublin agreement was very low impact, and we took more than returned at a few hundred per year.

You can also look at Germany, Italy and other EU countries still in that agreement and how they are dealing with the same issue.

If it is not Brexit, then what caused the surge in boat crossings since 2018?

Any movement of people snowballs. Lorries peaked at over 100k applications and then stopped due to clampdown. Traffickers found a way to build up entry by boat. They use social media marketing to grow the business.

The Med crossings and Mexico to US too also went up hugely in same timescales. People are moving more, there’s more volatility and people selling to them, traffickers are multi billion £/ euro organisations that are layers deep and pretty much untouchable.

Italy has had success in lowering for a while but it took maritime law changes and push backs.

Australia is pretty much the only country that has had continued ability to tackle it, it’s not a pariah as suggested.

@TopPocketFind

This research is interesting:

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/unauthorised-migration-in-the-uk/

When exactly did traffickers build up the boat crossings?

More research here

https://www.durham.ac.uk/departments/academic/law/news-and-events/news/2023/february/new-report-on-small-boat-crossings-launched-by-professor-thom-brooks/

This week Professor Thom Brooks, Professor of Law and Government, launched the most comprehensive report into the issue of asylum seekers using small boats to cross the Channel to Britain. A key finding of the 55 page report is that the Government's Brexit deal is a primary factor.

No small boat arrivals are recorded prior to 2018 when the UK was a part of a returns arrangement with the EU whereby anyone making the crossing could be returned. But the Government's Brexit deal did not include any agreement on a new returns arrangement and so returning migrants became far more difficult - and small boat crossings grew quickly. Other findings of the report are that the Government requires a new returns arrangement if it wants to make substantial progress in reducing numbers. The report calls on the Government to announce an independent investigation into missing children awaiting asylum decisions, provides evidence from the Home Office that it does not expect the Government's plans to work, that small boats are not the cause of the growing asylum application backlog and the plans for sending asylum seekers to Rwanda to have applications decided there lacks evidence of any deterrent effect or value for money.

@BurntBroccoliif you are looking to Brexit rather than clampdown on lorries for the reason why are Germany, Italy and other countries who didn’t leave facing the same issue?

And are you saying boats is more an issue than lorries anyway? They both sound dangerous to life.

You are not answering the question

When the wrong' uns are found out, it will damage Reform. Any party making large gains or suddenly being in control of a council gets found out, and Reform have not had very good vetting procedures it seems.

What do you want exactly?

Why are Germany, Italy and many others facing the same issues since they didn’t have Brexit?

I answered multiple times. Any large area which isn't being used. Plenty suitable. Put fencing around. Those currently crossing can be turned around to France.

Is that your local Reform candidate's policy?

Boat crossings increased sharply after 2020 and as another poster has linked the evidence to from Durham University, this was because of Brexit in the case of the UK.

Returns were minimal under the Dublin Agreement. Do you know how many per year?

And if it’s a major factor why are Germany and co dealing with repercussions from similar issues?

Can you say why?

“Any large area” is too vague. Which part of the country? How much would a landowner charge to rent the land out? Is there a water supply? Who would patrol the fence? Who would pay for the patrol of the fence?

Those currently crossing can be turned around to France.

Can you explain how that will happen given that France have said they won't accept returns.

What do I want?

How about that people stop scapegoating asylum seekers.

The shift to right wing thinking worries me.

Ok. But that still doesn’t mean that initial Brexit post was correct.

You’re seeing similar political shifts in Italy, Germany and other countries because even though they haven’t had Brexit they are facing similar issues.

In your opinion.

You have not provided any evidence that Brexit has nothing to do with the boat crossings other than some whataboutery.

I’d say movement trends across the world are worth considering even if U.K. / Brexit focussed people do not. It’s obvious it’s not just the U.K.

Why are those trends and what’s happening in so many countries irrelevant to you? It seems a bit head in the sand tbf

No I wish, north east.
But I am worried there are a lot of angry and disenfranchised voters. Most don’t seem to remember labour lost the council election last time! And are blaming Labour councillors for things they have voted no to!