Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

[HappydaysArehere]

With all this talk of billions of pounds which we are supposed to owe if we leave and talk of continuing to pay after we leave, I am in the dark. If we walk away with no deal will we pay anything like the amounts talked about? If we are able to do that surely the EU will be big losers as well as us! I am at a loss. Grateful for your input as I am bewildered. I voted to remain but must say the shenanigans being played by the EU are showing them as more like the Mafia than a democratic institution.

It’s amazing. I have not had a single rational and fact-based conversation with a Brexit supporter to date.

The discussion moves all too quickly to am emotive state and is devoid of fact or analysis.

I’m still hopeful.

Agree Olivia, it's amazing how the soundbite kings and queens melt away when asked to explain their posts. The random links, the incoherent word soup, the contempt for any actual knowledge or facts, the offence at anyone explaining the bloody obvious as being "rude" or "smug".

I wonder what a Russian Brexit bot earns? There's at least one who is on here all day and every day, pasting links and starting threads full of fallacies.

@Melassa

Cultism or tribalism is the way Americans are explaining how the Trump base still supports him. It feels similar here: anything that endangers the sense of belonging to the Brexit tribe or cult generates a strongly adverse and emotive reaction.

So the reactions cannot be rational for those tribe members.

I’m told Boris hymns the national anthem and cups his ears when brought bad news on Brexit until the bearer of bad news leaves. Case in point?

But I’m still hopeful to have it explained to me, to have missed the aha and understand the advantages.

It's exactly that, a cult, an evangelical religion. And we all know the role religion had in controlling the masses, the promotion of ignorance to thwart questioning of doctrine or whatever the demagogue of the time was doing. This promotion of the dislike and mistrust of experts ties in with that.

I get the feeling you'll be waiting a long time for those rational explanations. Are you sitting comfortably with some ?

"It’s amazing. I have not had a single rational and fact-based conversation with a Brexit supporter to date."

It may be "amazing" to you but I'm not surprised. For a start, serious and rational Brexit supporters (me included) just don't have the time to waste in conversing with someone who believes that facts could change - talking about "fact-based". The same as I am not attempting to teach my dog algebra anytime soon, if ever. We've got far better things to do!

Get yourself a job!

Get a life!

"Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?"

Well OP I will attempt to explain very, very simply with a simple one-word answer whilst others are wasting your time by fudging about and pulling wool over your eyes telling you cock and bull stories and avoiding an answer. Do you seriously have time for all that?

Well, the answer to your question is: NO!

Simple explanation: Go to your local open market first thing in the morning. Pick up something nice that you fancy from a stall and ask the stall owner the price. Offer him/her a deal for 20% less. If there's no agreement, put the item back gently, say goodbye with a smile (optional) and walk away. Chances are, you'll get a return goodbye (with or without a smile) and the matter ends there.

Friendly advice: But if the stall owner demands that you pay him/her a huge amount of money first (non refundable) before you get an answer to your proposal, call the police and tell them you are being extorted for your money. Please be careful also not to offer any money yourself for an answer to your proposal. You would then be seen as offering the stall owner a bribe to get yourself that 20% discount you'd asked for which as you know, is a criminal offence, i.e. the same as (say) offering your driving test examiner some money to get your full driving licence.

“Get yourself a job!

Get a life!”

Been up ages so I can go to work. Already have a life, thanks.

Your naivety is touching.

@shhhfastasleep

This @peteneras guy reminds me of Trump. Blowhard dotard. Not sure if he’s orange. Can’t tell.

But definitely with the bigly brain and all.

How about: you promised to pay a certain amount to the stall holder and she (in good faith) included your promise in her business plan. Then you tell her to fuck off and ask why she is so needy and whiny.

@shhhfastasleep

Save your energy. This guy’s not worth it. He doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. Not sure he knows what he knows either.

But he does have a Merc he paid for in cash.

This is yet another case of say anything and get jumped on.

It doesn't matter what happens, once there is some sort of agreement TWENTY_SEVEN countries need to agree, that's more than are in the Post, and we can't agree. We will be out with No deal Said this from the day after we voted leave, but people can't see how hard the AGREEING but is going to be.

The those that take more from the budget than they pay in, won't like to lose money, those that pay more won't want to pay more. The EU don't want to cut their budget.... and that's even before they see if they can STING us for some cash.

@mummmy2017

If you make sense and have rational vs emotional arguments no one will jump at you.

What point are you trying to make, though?

I just think the newspapers and their NEED for a story and the fact they are like a pack baying for PM's Blood is going to do so much damage to the UK.

There won't be a deal, there is no way for 27 countries to agree, as someone will always lose.

It's going to be WTA and then very fast Trade deals afterwards.

@mummmy2017

I agree the UK press is horrible. The Economist is about the only magazine/paper with any integrity but it has a small voice. Most are interested in scandal and fights vs facts.

It is impossible to get a trade deal - or any deal because extricating ourselves from the EU is not just about trade in goods - between now and March 2019. Nor was it ever planned that way. The UK govt seems to have completely misunderstood what the A50 period was about.

Anything which is not off the shelf with the EU is going to take a decade -just look at the thousands of pages wrt the FTA with Canada. The UK is much more complex.

Other trade related deals are also going to take years. I don't know where the thought 'quickly' comes from. But it's just not possible. First order of priority is taking the agreements in place today with the EU and other countries and making an attempt at replicating those conditions in new agreements. This will take years too - just to get to what the UK has today via the EU.

Before anyone objects to this assertion: Liam Fox agreed this was the case in his testimony to Parliament. And his NZ advisor admitted that not all terms may be transferable as countries were likely to change their minds.

So ... if you really want Brexit, expect to still be at this in 7 years' time.

@mummmy2017

I agree the UK press is horrible. The Economist is about the only magazine/paper with any integrity but it has a small voice. Most are interested in scandal and fights vs facts.

It is impossible to get a trade deal - or any deal because extricating ourselves from the EU is not just about trade in goods - between now and March 2019. Nor was it ever planned that way. The UK govt seems to have completely misunderstood what the A50 period was about.

Anything which is not off the shelf with the EU is going to take a decade -just look at the thousands of pages wrt the FTA with Canada. The UK is much more complex.

Other trade related deals are also going to take years. I don't know where the thought 'quickly' comes from. But it's just not possible. First order of priority is taking the agreements in place today with the EU and other countries and making an attempt at replicating those conditions in new agreements. This will take years too - just to get to what the UK has today via the EU.

Before anyone objects to this assertion: Liam Fox agreed this was the case in his testimony to Parliament. And his NZ advisor admitted that not all terms may be transferable as countries were likely to change their minds.

So ... if you really want Brexit, expect to still be at this in 7 years' time.

I really think you will find that other Countries are Looking at trade agreements, If both sides want something, then as you say it may be a copy and paste job, but because it will cost them as well as us, there will be a real NEED to sort quicker than later. This can be done if both sides are willing.

The EU might say they don't need to trade with us but we will be their 3rd largest trade partner , do you really think 27 countries are going to lose out on that amount of income, the countries are already split on the EU rules over little things, but this will be a massive hit in the packets of everyone.
2 weeks they have said, I hope May doesn't blink, as she isn't in as down and out as the papers would like us to think. Who ever took on this role was always going to be a figure of hate, but I can't help thinking if the 100 Billion isn't paid, that is a large amount of money that can and will be used to help UK trade.

@mummmy2017

I think it's rational to think other countries would want to maintain their relationships with the UK. Agree.

But it's not so straightforward. If we take Korea as an example, I understand that cars have a particularly low tariff if the content is 55% EU ... So what happens to that 55% when the UK is selling cars to Korea.

And there are 295 of these agreements to 'copy-paste' as you say. The US has already begun to try it on and put a regulatory wedge (sanitary and phyto sanitary esp) between the UK and the EU. The US does not care about the UK save to make the EU's regulatory sphere of influence weaker. And if we sigh up to the US reg sphere we close the door on Europe ... Not so simple.

I personally think the EU doesn't care much about losing trade with the UK if it means it also needs to violate its four freedoms. The EU's trade with the UK is some 8% vs 50% for the UK with the EU. So they will suffer but can absorb it. Can we?

Reality is: the UK MUST pay. We have zero choice in the matter. we need the EU to cooperate on not just trade but aviation for example. Open Skies is an agreement between the EU and the US. If we are out of the EU, we are no longer part of Open Skies. Planes to and from the US and EU stop. Overnight.

Same thing with Euratom. Nukes are 26% of our power. Where do we get our fuel? Note that while Euratom is not the EU, it is administered by the European Commission ...

So we are gonna pay. Bigly. The downsides would dwarf the payment. £60 billion is nothing vs the alternative.

@mummmy2017

Why do you want out anyway? What is it about the EU you don't like and which has made your life more difficult?

I asked someone today and it boiled down to VAT payments. He didn't like have to collect and pay VAT on goods he sold in Germany - said it was a tariff. I then pointed out that if he sold his goods in the UK he would collect and pay VAT here too. That felt like a big risk to me: leaving the EU because you don't like your customers in a foreign country paying VAT in that same foreign country on goods sold there.

So let's here your rub ...

@mummmy2017

hear

Here’s a link on the third country trade deals

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-trade-negotiations-liam-foxukk_59f9d788e4b0d1cf6e91e4da

Would I be very wrong to say it's the corruption, waste and wantant misuse of funds, the EU is a bloated dinasaur, that has a taste for greed, they want more and more money, power influence, and I just had enough and thought out has got to be better than this.

@mummmy2017

It's your right to think that but I don't think it's any worse than Westminster corruption-wise. Of course, I say this with little proof of such, just perception that most governments are cesspools of corruption and mismanagement.

I kind of view these things as 'taxes' on citizens. Whilst unpalatable, we need government hopefully with as little corruption as possible. In life you take the bad with the good and the good with the bad. Right now, I have to say I'm favouring pretty much any government but the UK (except for the US and obvious dictatorships).

But you're mad -it's palpable. At something in Brussels. Do you know what? Why?

1. What can you point to as examples of what you're accusing the EU of? It's one thing to believe something and another to prove it and have lots of examples of it. If it were really that bad, I think you'd have a lot of examples. Maybe you do ?

2. Assuming there is corruption and misuse of funds etc, how much do you think it costs us vs the economic benefits of EU membership? Single Market and the Customs Union have been wonderful for the UK in terms of market access. And many other countries have done well out of it too.

3. Have you considered carefully what the alternatives are? How damaging EEA membership vs a DCFTA vs naked WTO rules could be relative to the status quo? Just to be clear, it is impossible to have economic upsides when you raise trade barriers which we would be doing - with everyone for many years.

I just think the newspapers and their NEED for a story and the fact they are like a pack baying for PM's Blood is going to do so much damage to the UK.

That would be the same papers that supported leave and peddled anti EU stories for 40 years. Yes, I agree they have damaged the UK.

@GhostofFrankGrimes

The despair I have is at the lack of presentation of facts. Information is shuttled back and forth without question. Unfiltered / unchallenged Farage is nauseating.

The US press does a better job calling out the bullshit. Why can't we? What happened to our press?