Catalexit

[Spinflight]

Quite a bun fight brewing in Spain..

The Catalonian government has passed laws and whatnot to hold a referendum on becoming independent on the 1st of October.

Which is rather awkward, as the Spanish government, the EU and various other bodies say that to do so, even to hold a vote, would be illegal.

Course there's lots of opinion polls, which naturally are all over the place.

The only thing they conclusively show is that the Catalans want a binding vote.

Whilst this is quite rightly an internal matter, were they to vote out ( which incidentally would put them out of the EU) should we support their wishes?

Surely the right to self determination trumps all other concerns, though it has to be said that we would really, really annoy Spain and the EU in doing so.

Interesting times, as ever. What are your thoughts?

Interestingly Puigdemont and his compatriots have handed themselves into the police following the European Arrest Warrant being issued.

I doubt the Belgian courts will have any option but to hand them over to Madrid, though they might surprise me.

Not entirely sure what he's hoping to gain through this sacrifice.

"The fact they dont want to, doesnt mean they wont."

I share your quiet confidence in the people, though sadly not in our elected betters.

Unless I'm missing something. That chances of the Catalan elections being free and fair are slim to none. If any figure of import has said boo to Madrid's goose then I've missed it.

Late update, Puigdemont and 4 collegues have been freed pending court appearance in Belgium in the next 2 weeks. They are not to leave Belgium.

I just cant see them extraditing Spin. It flies in the face of what the EAW was allegedly supposed to be used for. It would then have to be a legal challenge to have the original Spanish warrants overturned to enable them to return to Spain, and thats not going to happen quickly. I gather those already imprisioned in Spain, could be held on remand for up to 4 years before a trial!

I do wonder if any pro-union Spanish realise what the impact of winning this battle will be. They may retain Catalonian unity for the time being, but with Youth unemployment at 50%, this distraction has only been temporary. Attention will soon return to domestic immigration, employment issues, appalling growth, and the far right have been buoyed by recent (though whispered) public support on the assault on the naughty Catalans.

Has Spains right wing army been born, and whose going to control it now? Certainly not Rajoy. He may have created the monster, but it will soon turn inwards as he sells more and more of Spains nationality to the EU in repayment for their 'support'.

"He may have created the monster, but it will soon turn inwards as he sells more and more of Spains nationality to the EU in repayment for their 'support'."

If I was going to be as sympathetic to those opposing Catalonia as I could then I doubt I could describe them as less than statist. When significant numbers are giving nazi salutes and shouting viva Franco I consider this to be a stretch.

Still as you say empowering such behaviour and imposing hard line authoritarian law and order policies ( I'd consider locking up political prisoners to be somewhat further along the line than this of course, as too breaking heads in elections) doesn't really fit well with Madrid's current economic situation.

The last Catalonian leader was Luis Companys who also faced extradition, though by the gestapo. Executed by firing squad they named the Olympic stadium in Barcelona after him.

Anyone else finding all of this a bit surreal in 2017? Do those cheap Spanish holidays and bottles of Rioja seem less appealing?

Anyone else struggling to comprehend that we are talking about Western Europe and one of our allies?

Its a lovely sunny morning here Spin, and whilst I think about taking the dog somewhere green and pleasant, I'm immediately struck by thoughts on farming, and this week particularly, the crisis in farming (and related industries) thats decimated Spain and France. So a sunday morning read.

3 reports from this summer, that havent had the publicity they should. (Something to do with obsessed MSM talking up the wonderful EU)

French farmer suicides continue unabated at approx 1 a day.

www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/europe/france-farm-suicide.html

Reports on Spanish farming, the first, which has been on its arse for decades due initially to the heavily weighted support of French farming next door from the EU (which didnt exactly work out well for the French either, go figure), and today, the opening up of the CETA deal etc.

www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/free-trade-deals-at-all-cost-frustrate-spanish-farmers/

and the second, about the changing face of rural Spain.

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/11/room-in-the-middle-the-africans-repopulating-spains-dying-villages.

Its not long ago, Oriol Junqueras, Catalan VP now imprisioned, spoke to the EU in a farming debate.

"Today, on behalf of my Group, I want to express our solidarity with the whole of the agricultural sector, and in particular with the strike by milk producers and their actions across Europe. The current situation is unsustainable and requires a political solution. Clearly, the measures adopted to date by the Commission have been unable to alleviate the crisis or provide a viable alternative to the quota replacement scheme. As a result, in Spain for example – Galicia to be precise – 14 000 milk producers have had to cope with root-and-branch restructuring in order to continue living and working on the land, but today they are still on the verge of imminent disappearance.
For all these reasons, in the same way that the Commission has intervened in other sectors, it must also intervene in the milk sector, by regulating production, redistributing quotas, offering temporary compensation, encouraging product traceability and helping to bring producers and consumers closer together by correcting the dysfunctions caused by the distribution oligopoly.
Why has the Commission not positively intervened to prevent the negative consequences of this oligopoly established by the major distributors?
Why are we not guaranteeing the rural survival of our milk producers – and farmers in general – who provide extremely positive economic, social and environmental knock-on effects?"

Mr Junqueras, a voice for all Spanish agriculture, will not be walking his dog today, and who knows when a mini bus of Spanish Ultras arrive in a village near you. 2017 indeed.

Rural Spain can be very rural indeed. Particularly in the north where you can find plenty of villages that don't even appear to have roads leading to them. Always struck me as completely forgotten or unknown places.

Whilst roads are optional a venerable old git wearing his medals trying to ply you with wine was not. Should probably have enquired which side in retrospect. :)

"Spanish farmers are also concerned about Brexit, given that the United Kingdom is the sector’s fourth most important destination for its agri-food products."

That surprises me, as Spanish imports are second only to Germany's industrial might in value. Takes a lot of oranges to equal one BMW though I assumed it was mainly agri.

Course back in the day our fruit and veg mainly came from Southern Africa, though the customs barrier put paid to that. Suspect you'd see a great deal of Spanish this and that in your groceries.

And fish, which some may be concerned your humble correspondent is obsessed with. Northwest Spain relies very greatly upon our waters, and those of the Falklands. Chances are they do a round trip of the Iberian peninsula before ending up on your plate.

Course if you thought any of the above equals leverage then I can only assume you are misrepresenting the average intellect our of elected betters, never mind their moral turpitude.

On the one hand you could say that Rajoy has chosen a bad time to upset us, though one of his PP colleagues calling for Puigdemont to share Companys' fate didn't get the memo if one were ever sent.

Nor the King of Spain who could only be bothered attending to us whilst he could watch a bit of Wimbledon at the same time. Which was.. noted. Saying that since he used his long delayed speech to lecture us over Gibraltar some wondered why we bothered.

Seemed particularly ill timed as the Royal Navy were busily chasing Spanish vessels out of Gibraltar's waters on an at least daily basis.

Other than Ireland Madrid has by far the most to lose which makes their verbiage and actions seem... A bit odd.

It took me till 4pm to realise today was monday, not sunday. Day off rota has thrown my week!

I dont think Spanish governments have given that much thought to the UK Spin, they are utterly committed to the eurozone and of course hugely reliant on subsidies. (Though I think fishing quotas came up in todays parliamentary debate ....I'll have to go check).

This was the latest bung sent Spains way.

www.youthemploymentdecade.org/en/repor/from-this-year-spain-will-be-able-to-spend-3200-million-euros-to-combat-youth-unemployment/

The problem is, as has been so common in Spain, the money doesnt end up where it was intended.

Will this dent the huge youth unemployment figures, or will some clever new counting scheme (that the ONS would be proud of) ensure key targets are met? As we know, data juggling makes great positive political headlines, but it doesnt actually create full time paid jobs.

Reminds me a tad of Ciudad Real Central Airport......... built to profit the builders and construction investors.

Catalan speaker jailed tonight for allowing debate in the Parliament. And the EU think theyre winning

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-latest-spain-leaders-jailed-rebellion-sedition-over-independence-a8046961.html

The Belt enquiry starting to bite. Which doesn't entirely surprise me..

www.express.co.uk/news/world/877529/Mariano-Rajoy-corruption-Peoples-Party-Spain-Luis-Barcenas-finance

I would surmise that some rather heavyweight external pressure is likely to be applied via this process.

Im sure youve picked this up, but .... Spains Attourney General has died suddenly. Not sure how much of an impact it will have on a 'political' solution, but he was very outspoken.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42041611

Latest polls show PP down to 27% and the Socialists up to 25%. Not dramatic, but Iceta seems to be having an influence.

With the PP fallen and a weak socialist but pro EU government in place Catalonia's chances appear much brighter.

People tend to forget that democratic forces have rather quiet but powerful friends.

This isn't something which will erupt overnight I think, but is an inevitability in my estimation.