Catalexit

[Spinflight]

Quite a bun fight brewing in Spain..

The Catalonian government has passed laws and whatnot to hold a referendum on becoming independent on the 1st of October.

Which is rather awkward, as the Spanish government, the EU and various other bodies say that to do so, even to hold a vote, would be illegal.

Course there's lots of opinion polls, which naturally are all over the place.

The only thing they conclusively show is that the Catalans want a binding vote.

Whilst this is quite rightly an internal matter, were they to vote out ( which incidentally would put them out of the EU) should we support their wishes?

Surely the right to self determination trumps all other concerns, though it has to be said that we would really, really annoy Spain and the EU in doing so.

Interesting times, as ever. What are your thoughts?

Theresa May has refused to recognise Catalonian Independence...

I must have missed the debate in parliament.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/202078

You did indeed Spin. Arresting Puigdemont will only create a martyr and be utterly counter productive. Rajoy wont negotiate. Its got to be forced take over and then smaller nations will start to declare support. What do you think? Venezuela? Kosovo? Slovenia? Finland?!! Once 1 declares others will follow, and if Rajoy stays on the course we think he will, the big hitters will have to u-turn. Theres an army out there, across europe, prepared to support Catalonia.

I just cant see anyone stopping Rajoy, but like Junker, hes got to go. (Talking of which, hows Junkers Presidency going? Do you think hes pleased with his achievements whilst in office?)

Just one aside, Sturgeons getting in a mess. Shes "respecting" the Catalonian decision, but falls short of formal recognition of an Independant state. The nationalists, want formal recognition. What does she do? Actually scrap that. We know what she'll do, utterly ignore it all and go for a press photo shoot.

Safe to say, support for the EU north of the border is now non-existant.

Now this is smart. This was a great move when Estonia first introduced it.

amp.ibtimes.co.uk/catalonia-looks-estonias-e-residency-considers-cryptocurrency-option-1644838

Bitcoin starts to make sense.

As someone who tried to buy £1000 worth of bitcoins when they were $0.07 each please don't mention them. Lol

Trump is key here. Yes many smaller and worthy states will I expect recognise Catalonia and that I think will be enough. I doubt the Commonwealth for instance will accept 'our' new found position on self determination.

In fact, I suspect they're a bit confused given 'our' stance. Though confused in the same sort of way one would be watching a uniformed police officer slashing someone's tyres.

Supporting Catalonia certainly, on the face of it, seems to satisfy a great many of Trump's foreign policy aims and objectives. Which rather begs the question why the reluctance up till now?

We could even see Putin's Russia beating them to it and trumpeting their belief in self determination, democratic principles and American pie!

Yeah, I know...

There's nothing in the Spanish constitution which allows deposing the Catalonian's government, demanding elections ( which Puigdemont grasped, hence the 155) or at worst sending the tanks in.

Hence given the nature of stupid it's only likely that more stupidity will follow. Putting early adopters such as the detestable May in rather an awkward position.

What, for instance, will the Scottish tories make of all this? The DUP too aren't known for their lack of moral courage and values, whether you agree with said values or not. Both nominally hold the balance of power.

The strange fish, as ever, will be all punchline without the joke to precede it. And Ruth Davidson may enjoy herself, just a bit, at her expense.

Dare one say that those who fought bravely in such epically righteous places as Afghanistan might see any use of force by Madrid as an open invitation? We've been here before, were on the wrong side, and should remember the results and what followed.

Spain isn't just playing with fire with it's own reputation here. Anyone who backs Madrid faces being more than just inconvenienced by their subsequent actions..

From 18 months or so ago but gives some background to the forces at play which have partly resulted in the UDI.

You might think that governments, bureaucracies and judiciaries would learnt that sweeping things under the carpet causes more problems down the line in a democracy.

Meh...stupid is as stupid does.

A discussion in the British Parliament? It wasn't even supposed to discuss Brexit. The judges who said otherwise have been declared enemenies of the will of the people by some press, and the lady (she's not even white, so how dare she?) who brought this matter to court has been receiving death threats.

Let's not forget, as we learned at the start of this thread, that spin must know what s/he's talking about because s/he's "walked extensively in the region". Our very own Orwell? Or perhaps more Saga tours?

Steady southlondondaddy, I understand Ms Miller calls herself a "woman of colour". So please, a little respect. I dont mind Ms Miller. I like what shes doing. Its utterly reflective of the tunnel vision of remain. Im certainly not complaining that her legal action ensured parliament ruled on the A50, heavens was it a 498/114 majority? It certainly put to rest the ridiculous incessant complaining about the referendum results. We have a representative democracy, isnt it marvellous. As to her future actions and cause celebre, shes gone all tunnel visionary again. Absolutely fine with me.

Spin, youre right, but just as we have those who think UK business is sitting around twiddling its thumbs waiting for Davis and Barnier to kiss and make up, (theyre not), Trump is utterly kicking ass. The US economy is flying and in doing so hes castrated almost all political argument. Trump tuned in to people power a long time ago. The State department have issued the standard 'political' statement yesterday, but as you say, its an almost certainty that Rajoy will go in heavy handed. Supporters, for now, sit and wait. (We do a lot of that...something to do with muppetry, give them enough rope etc etc)

Either Rajoy goes nuclear and the international community change stance, or someone reigns him in. Im struggling for a 3rd option.

Sorry about the bitcoin, but its been one to watch for its surge this year. The article rightly points back to Greece and the serious consideration given to the bitcoin post financial crisis days. Whats dropped of manys radar, are stats like, 15% of the Greek population, 1.6million people, earned below the extreme poverty threshold in 2015. In 2009 it was 2.2%. Pensions are now below 500eu a month and salaries, after Tspiras' taxes, are bubbling around the same level.

The bitcoin has seen a surge. As talk turns to a fourth bailout for Greece, are we seeing the birth of the alternative EU? Could call it the UEP, Union of European Peoples, its catchy.

Catalonia absolutely know they will be hammered economically.
The EU, the ECB will put as much economic pressure as possible on them to capitulate. Loans will be called in, lending will be blocked. A 'country' 12 times bigger than Luxembourg, Population 7.5million (Luxembourg 500,000), GDP 220billion (Luxembourg 60billion), and the EUs power is in control of the euro.

Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency, imo, has just gained huge legitimacy.

PS Was the extensive walk pleasant? I gather its a beautiful part of the world and my DH is keen to go, indeed sitting here waiting to book his flight.

It was a saga Caroline. Apparently. :)

Yes Trump's position is interesting. 1776 and all that ( never mention the treaty of Paris to Americans, it upsets them) gives a certain populist legitimacy and I'd say it is generally considered to be a fundamental American value.

Two republican Senators have flounced off in tantrumy strops, but they represent the rump Republicans. These are not newbies, they know that announcing they won't seek re-election all but destroys their personal power. Hence they've merely highlighted the established order's weakness, even whilst unity is required to get their promised tax cuts through. He's certainly allowed them a muppetry quotient and is starting to reap the dividends.

So a month ago Trump gave his support to the visiting Rajoy. If he's shown any since then I've missed it. Then again I don't expect an outright recognition, or even any comment at all. 98 years ago Ireland declared independence, which given the hyphenated American's roots was more within the US' remit than Catalonia. Not a single nation recognized them.

There are many measures short of recognition which will be at play, either to stay Rajoy's hand or to pressure his government.

Economically the Catalonian's confidence is low, though having talked to two economists and received seven different opinions I could only say that the reality is unclear.

The EU's complicity makes any will on the part of the Catalonians to remain as EU members or use the euro very unlikely. Hence whilst there are various options available it remains a deep and possibly existential problem for the EU due in part to the target2 payments mechanism.

Catalonia could reasonably be assumed to shoulder a portion of Spain's official debt. The target2 imbalances however are not official debt. :)

Whats a few hundred billion euros between new friends though?

Wondered where to pop this little gem, but decided M4dad had earned it on here.

This is Ed Conway, Skys Economics editor. (Perhaps from the Olivia school of economics?)

He tweeted,

"There is only one other country anywhere trading solely on WTO rules. And 1 to 17% of the population live in slavery"

The response is pure twitter gold.

LOL wrong thread........ ignore that (though you'll love the muppetry moment Spin)

Thank you Caroline!

Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you! :D

Simply wonderful.

There might actually be a way out of this...

The nightmare scenario now is indecisive elections on the 21st of December. Say the pro independence parties get 49% of the vote? Whilst these would clearly be for independence it can't explicitly be stated that the other 51% are anti independence.

And this assuming that the elections are fair, that independence candidates and parties are allowed to run and that the PP don't commit more atomic weapons grade stupidity.

There is however the Belt enquiry. Basically a large scale political corruption case in which the very top of the PP is up to their necks in hundreds of millions of euros worth of bribery and corruption allegations.

I suspect all outside parties will be doing some lateral thinking as to how to defuse the situation and don't really regard Rajoy as being part of the solution.

Hence it could be thinly argued that Rajoy's stupidity was based upon him trying to deflect attention from his own legal predicament. That he sent the police in to break heads to potentially bury bad news.

An 'oh look we caught the critter responsible' now lets have a grown up debate about what has happened might well work....

It was a beaut wasnt it.

Coo youre optimistic looking at December elections Spin. Theres me wondering if we get through tomorrow. After a concerning day in Barcelona, Rajoys unofficial advance army is in town, Nazi tatts an all and singing the Franco anthem, I had to sit on hubby today and call for calm. Just cant believe weve got widespread nazi salutes on the streets of europe in 2017. (6 months in jail in Germany for that!) And children lining up to do them too. Spain, youre making the world so angry.

I do hope someone can get at Rajoy, but Im cynical about those dipping in the till. Half the time theyre all at it, so its a huge leap tackling sticky fingers in parliaments at the best of times. We can hope though.

I fear we may see arrests tomorrow, quite unbelievably. Employed by the people, paid by the people, removed by a facist coup, for thats what it clearly is now. Western europe 2017, its staggering.

"Spain, youre making the world so angry. "

Yes quite, though this has consequences.

With neofrancoism being openly displayed the cat is out of the bag. I'm pretty sure we can assume that investors will be concerned, and some or many may choose to invest elsewhere from political rather than economic motives.

Spain has a budget deficit of 5% and is facing general strikes in 20% of it's GDP. It's bond price might make interesting viewing after today's trading.

Muppets in the street shouting viva Franco should really consider how warmly the rest of the world views fascists. Several of my pro independence Scottish friends seem to have gone rather cold on the EU as a result of all this. Fascist sentiments aren't... exactly welcomed up there.

Sadly I think Madrid's actions, and the Western European response, are going to cause long term reputational harm to our international standing. No fault of the people, it's the moral turpitude of the so called elites at play here.

Would it be too much to ask to elaborate on and to substantiate the bits about the open display of francoism and the Nazi salutes?

Sure, in Spain there exists a far right, which is against Catalan independence. But I also seem to remember a big rally in Barcellona just now, with hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against independence.
Were they all neonazis???

"Would it be too much to ask to elaborate on and to substantiate the bits about the open display of francoism and the Nazi salutes?"

Of course. Its the levels of tolerance and legality in Spain. Its exactly as you say, the open displays. We all recognise far right neo nazi idiots, they exist in every country. What we dont recognise is the open displays every year to celebrate Francos death. We dont recognise tombs to facist dictators, such as at the Valley of the Fallen, being celebrated. We dont recognise children, women and the elderly using the facist salute. Indeed, if you tried walking the streets of the UK throwing up a facist salute, youll be lucky if the police get to you first. Football players get banned for life if they do it. It is universally, the most hated and despised action anyone can do in the world.

It is then the refusal to condemn, and the refusal to enact any type of law, that the Spanish people are now judged on. Its their country, its their laws, its their government, and in it, there is clearly mass tolerance. The question is, is it indeed quiet mass support?

Heres one current witness statement.

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/10/francos-fascism-is-alive-and-kicking-in-spain/

As I said, in Germany, to do such a thing will see you get a 6 month prison sentence. If Spain is to tackle this, then total intolerance must be shown. How well do you think that suggestion will go down with the Spanish peoples?

? I’m still not following. Unless you can prove that right-wing extremism is endemic in Spain, that Spain has a substantially higher % of fanatics than any other Western country and that, most importantly, all of this somehow affects Catalonia (how, exactly?), then I genuinely fail to understand how on Earth any of this is relevant to the debate on the Catalan crisis.

Spain has never really dealt with its past. The approach has always been: “Oh, let’s pretend nothing has happened and just move on”. The fact that king Juan Carlos was effectively chosen by Franco beggars belief; the Valley of the fallen (for those who aren’t familiar with it, it’s a monument to the fascists fallen in the Spanish civil war, and it also hosts Franco’s tomb: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valle_de_los_Ca%C3%ADdos ), which you mention, is IMHO a disgrace. Yet, again, I struggle to see the relevance with respect to the Catalan crisis.

The article you link implies, without saying it explicitly, that the anti-independence movement is full of these right wing extremists. I am not so sure. I don’t live in Catalonia (I lived there briefly when I was younger), so my impressions can only be indirect, but I do know quite a few Catalans and I read the Spanish press (including the Catalan newspapers La Vanguardia and El Periodico, which I used to read when I lived there; the latter can be accused of a lot of things but not of having any sort of right-wing inclination!). What I do know is that Rajoy, as much as I don’t like him, cannot really be accused of francosim, that Catalan society is deeply, deeply divided on the issue, that hundreds of thousands of people (all fascists?) have just protested in Barcelona against independence, and that a toxic environment has developed, whereby those who dare disagree with the independence movement are labelled fascists and abused on the streets (see my previous point about the director Isabel Coixet). “Fascist” has a very clear meaning: it does not mean “anyone who dares disagree with you” – abusing words like this is an insult to those who did suffer enormously at the hand of the real fascists.

Because legitimately elected officials are facing 30 years in prison for representing the Independance issue that they were elected on in the first place Southlondondaddy.

Of course Spain isnt a mass of rampant right wing extremism, (is it?) but a/ you miss my point entirely about tolerating it, and b/ you miss todays context that there does indeed appear mass support for locking up elected officials who were elected for the very belief they are now facing jail for.

As the Spanish senate said yesterday about the new December elections, if pro indy representatives win again in December, they will invoke/retain Article 155.

Supporting Independance is now a criminal offence, sedition and rebellion, and ergo, all those citizens who voted Puigdemont and the pro-indy representatives into the Catalan Parliament in legitimate elections in the first place, are acting illegaly, seditiously and are viewed as rebels.

Why are the Spanish not outraged, at elected officials being rounded up and imprisioned for the very 'manifesto' they were elected on? I really dont know.

Rajoy has declared 'Independance' and, the support of Independance illegal. (30 years in jail) Thats irrelevant to any referendum result, and applies to all citizens, not just elected officials.

The Spanish people appear to support this action en masse. Im struggling to not conclude that rampant facism is alive and well in Spain.

Spin, Brussels? You dont think he's challenging the EU at their very heart re their 'its illegal to give asylum to a fellow member states citizen' do you? Are Belgium about to challenge the fundamental right to asylum that was removed by the EU?

Hows the bond bubble looking?

Been looking at European Arrest Warrants this evening. For me, the question is, how do you ensure the EU get involved in this? Asylum doesnt exist within the EU, so Puigdemont hasnt immediately gone that route, which leaves the EAW. Theyve batted off criticism before though re the EAWs, just because hes high profile, doesnt neccesarily mean they will react to legal challenges on an EAW.

Various MEPs speaking out in Parliament this week, but even there, with Junkers contempt for the Parliament shown a couple of months ago, I dont think will particularly cause them concern, unless a member state supports challenging them. France for example, has never extradited a French citizen to another member state under an EAW. The EU havent disciplined France for that. Would the EU put pressure on Belgium if they failed to act on a EAW now? I dont know. I very much doubt it as it draws them in. But as sure as eggs is eggs, theres no way Puigdemont or any of the pro indy representatives can stand for elections in Catalonia as fugitives.

Will the belt enquiry be buried for the time being Spin, as weve seen the inquiry into police violence be dropped?

The Spanish people appear to support this action en masse. Im struggling to not conclude that rampant facism is alive and well in Spain

You can throw words like fascism around from Britain but the Spanish still have a first hand memory of real fascism. I live two houses down from a govt building where teenagers were tortured by fascists before being tossed in an unmarked grave and doused with quicklime. Most here I've spoken to support unity and the law. Puigdemont went ahead knowing the law. Belief in the law, and the illegality of the referendum is fact, does NOT make for fascism.

Its the question of 'law' though Donostia. History tells us that. Not wanting to derail, and state the obvious, but theres 'law' and theres a very loose interpretation of the 'law', or even outrageous misrepresentation of it.

The Catalonians were not gathering armies to march into Madrid and overthrow by force, the elected government. Thats sedition. Thats rebellion.

Heres todays open letter sent to the EU from quite a list of academics and politicians, that explains the illegalities of the current situation.

www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/171101_LETTER-TUSK-JUNCKER-FINAL1.pdf

So 8 ministers imprisioned pending trial without bail, and an EAW issued for Puigdemont. Well that'll put all the pro-indy supporters back in their box....not.

Heres the swing from July polls, to last sunday. This trend is only going to continue one way, certainly after today events.

Spain is rounding up its political prisoners. Whilst its predictable, its no less utterly outrageous.

www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=22295&LangID=E

"Hows the bond bubble looking?"

Spain's borrowing costs have decreased markedly since the referendum Caroline. The markets approve... effectively.

Even more sinister is Spain using EU mechanisms, the European arrest warrant, to pursue their political opponents.

Who will apparently be charged with rebellion and face up to 48 years in prison. Technically it's only a rebellion if violence is used but the Spanish supreme court appeared to accept arguments that there was the potential for violence to be used.

Closer to home it appears that Spain is garnering support from some unlikely places. Whilst I'd expect journalists and the like to go the full Pravda this doesn't seem orchestrated to me, seems more spontaneous than the manufactured piffle we are used to.

Look on the brightside Spin, we may be able to secure an EAW for Sturgeon and co. Surely theres some 15th century law we can call on?!

Im watching inflation, the 'shock', LOL, of the .25 rate rise this week, wont dent my daughters piggy bank. (Though the BBC very kindly drew a crayon line picture to show us how dramatic this is)

Theres a swell of quiet support building, the treatment of those arrested this week hasnt been missed, and Catalans are starting to organise themselves. Various main routes blocked this week both rail and road.

Danish MP Bertel Haarder addressed the internal issues that various nations have, surrounding the current impasse.

"If Greenland and Faroe Islands want total independence they can have it. Of course then the money we pay to them will stop at some point. But they can have it – it is all up to themselves," Haarder advised, referring to the decades-long debate over the two autonomous Danish territories.
"That is how we should treat each other in modern Europe".

The message is coming over clear though, the principle of democracy is far higher than any internal difficulties it may cause. I think the reticence we're seeing, is a faint hope that Spain indeed u-turns rather than forcing democrats to act. But if it continues all democrats will have to act.

The fact they dont want to, doesnt mean they wont.