I think the tories will lose

[ethanrayne]

I actually thought they would win, and there was nothing anyone could do. Now I think they will lose.

I just did. I'm getting a figure of 4.4% of the UK population.

Sittinonthefloor

Mouse - you THINK negotiation with Isis will happen. It isn't an 'absolute truth'. There aren't really any parallels to be drawn from history either because it's a new kind of group

I am basing my statement on historical facts - as did Corbyn I imagine. All groups are 'new and different' to the age that encounters them. But let's look PLO, ANC (regarded as terrorists), IRA, Irgun, RAF, Tamil tigers the list is endless. Unfortunately.

All different, all negotiated with, all 'new' at the time.

In regards to Corbyn do you want political honesty or not? You can't claim to want honest politicians and then lambast them when they are honest.

Pearly You do not that not all Muslims are Isis supporters?

I was also thinking we had a Hilary Clinton effect going on with May. The IRA mostly went for political targets -where is the evidence of them raping and murdering children? Where is the ideology saying they will not sign treaties with corrupt western powers and where is the ideology saying that they want maximum terror against civilian targets to conquer them as fast as possible?

I don't think the IRA/ISIS analogy holds up.

Gah! You do Know that....*

Does it matter whether they're analogous or not? Military intervention alone isn't going to make them go away.

For everyone who thinks the high inflation of the late 20th century was a domestic problem, you need to inform yourselves. Start by reading Yanis Varoufakis's 'The Global Minotaur' then his 'And The Weak Suffer What They Must'. They describe the global effects of the destruction of the post-WW2 Bretton Woods agreements, that led to the creation of the IMF and the World Bank. Those agreements were deliberately destroyed by the influential economist Paul Volcker, later Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and led directly to the financial chaos in Europe, which he knew it would. European countries' efforts to help themselves only got them further into trouble, with the exception of Germany. The historical reasons for why Germany escaped are in those books, and they're much more to do with American intervention than German economic management.

The economic situation in UK even now is better than the Eurozone countries, and that's due to Gordon Brown who recognised the Eurozone for what it was going to be, with all the dire effects the world has experienced in past decades: a return to the gold standard, just without the gold reserves. It was a crazy French idea from the start, and he knew it. Refusing to join it did this country a huge favour.

The only fully costed manifesto in this election, is Labour's.

They would need to be all but militarily annihilated before they considered treaties - and is it fine for you to prop up a government that has slaves? Women and children as slaves, and the men slaughtered.

There's a view that we can stop the drones, not support any bombing campaigns and somehow, magically, ISIS will join the negotiating table - this isn't a view held by any serious foreign policy expert.

NoLotteryWinYet I don't think the ISIS/IRA analogy is brilliant either however I have referenced a number of other terrorist organisations a number of whom went on to form governments.

The Hilary Clinton thing would bother me more if there weren't a number of other VERY strong female candidates debating last night.

I thought Brown was quite pro Eurozone and it was Ed Balls who did the analysis and veto'd it? But even then we owe the ability to veto it not to Brown or Blair, but to Major.

This was quite interesting: www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/nov/24/john-major-davidcameron

Mouse - all the groups you mention wanted either their own bit of land back (as they saw it) from 'occupiers' or a change in their own government. Isis is entirely different, I don't understand how you think we could negotiate with their ideology- please give me some examples of how you anticipate the dialogue would work? What would we offer them, what would they offer us? Would it be some kind of compromise, like 'we'll stop sending girls to school if you stop chopping people's heads off?'.

ISIS is losing territory quite consistently, and without territory to control ISIS has no caliphate. So it's losing support; the numbers of returning fighters are growing, according to Home Office spokespeople.

It may be a case of fighting it where needed strategically, and waiting it out, which is what ended the 'War of the Running Dogs', the communist insurgency in Malaya 1948-1960. I had an uncle on the front line of that, an interesting man to talk to.

NoLotteryWinYet

"this isn't a view held by any serious foreign policy expert"

Really? I was under the impression in all conflicts certain 'channels' of communication remain open. These 'channels' lead to informal then formal negotiations. Corbyn is being honest about this.

Often these 'channels' remain hidden for decades after the event. At end of WW2 the Japanese had opened negotiations with the USA, this was hidden at the time and remained secret for decades, it is still little known today. The Japanese were regarded as a suicidal and unreasonable foe.

Helena
Not much learnt, re Glasgow bin lorry crash no.
My exH, is a bus driver.
Taken into hospital last Feb with suspected Heart attack.
Left on a trolley, not even given blood tests or scans, told he 'could go' 1.5hrs later, came home in a taxi.
Still on antidepressants and betablockers which make him woozy.
Although both his GP and Consultant (he has other medical issues too) signed him off the Company Dr refused to accept and he was told any more time off sick you will be fired. Jobcentre told him he couldnt claim benefits as he had been fired and was not sick enough for sickness benefits.

As for the 'swinging the lead' comments... words fail me.

Sittinonthefloor

We need another thread! My point is about Corbyn being honest.

I don't know how these channels and negotiations work. I have no idea. I just know when you read history there they all are. All the conflicts, all the wars years after these channels and secret negotiations are mentioned.

They happen - I don't know how - but they do. So why lie about it? Do you want politicians who lie about it?

Helena and worship I am so hoping that we get a good result and this type of shameful nonsense is ended. to you and yours.

Corbyn isn't saying he'd fight it strategically though is he? He's against any kind of intervention.

Hidden channels - I don't see why this is something I'd put my faith in - ISIS is retreating because it is being militarily beaten, not because of any back channels communications.

Ultimately, if you're voting Corbyn because you care more about British social issues than ISIS, I can accept that but I can't see how you can really believe his non-intervention and keeping lines of communications open will work for ISIS.

There are no simple answers on how to defeat Isis. On the channel 4 program earlier this week when an audience member asked Corbyn about tackling terrorism from the Middle East he said regarding Isis that the we need to cut off funds to Isis and arming them. The UK sells arms to Saudi Arabia who many believe support Isis as Isis ideology has developed from Wahibism that is from Saudi Arabia.

I don't think Corbyn is suggesting dialogue with Isis directly is possible being as he recognises they wouldn't ever be interested in dialogue.

The young vote has no knowledge of a true labour government and the 30-40s group remember the Blair years that were capitalist with a nod to metropolitan socialist causes

I also remember thatcher being a young child. I'm mid 30s.

No they won't.

There are far more silent tories than noisy left wingers. And silent ukippers too.

Happy to be proved wrong but don't think I will be.

I like John McDonnel but would not trust Jeremy Corbyn as far as I could throw him.
Lost people tend to be social democrats but brexit has to go through to save our country.
The EU is an anti-democratic basket case. Run by smug geeks that are riding that cash cow as long as they can.
When Greece, Italy and Spain finally switch the lights off and Germany can no longer afford to fund its vanity project then we'll all be glad that we are out.
Britain always has been a safe haven for those in need. That should never change but we certainly do need to know just who is actually here.
Most people have sympathy, of course, but we should look after our own before we start trying to solve the problems of the world.
Last time I checked there is abundant poverty and deprivation in this country and gat needs sorting.
Cotbyn's unlimited immigration will make this worse. Of course the fact that immigrants almost always vote labour has nothing to do with that ......

Hi @Seminormal, benefit fraud, like all fraud, of course is not acceptable. I can only reiterate for disability benefits the figures are actually low. Low does not mean non existent but low. And contrary to popular belief it I has never been easy to claim the disability benefit dla, now pip, medical Evidence has always been required. Are the fraud cases you refer to for disability benefits such as PIP?

In 2010 the condem govt through their welfare reform bill made it clear they wanted to cut the disability benefit DLA by 20% despite low fraud for this benefit. They are trying to achieve this by replacing DLA with PIP which has more narrow criteria. E.g. 50,000 people have lost their mobility cars as the walking distance to get high rate mobility has gone from 50 metres to 20 metres.

They outsourced disability assessments to private companies who are underscoring claimants in high numbers as testified by the high numbers appealing and winning on appeal. Disabled benefits have faced brutal cuts and the assessment process is stressful and making many claimants health worse.

Returning to the Op's question I don't think Labour will win - as much as I would like them to - but May not get the landslide she was betting on.

I imagine many of those who voted Brexit to give the elites a good kicking will now vote Tory because they think they will get the best Brexit deal.

People are weird like that.

@sinonella (page 12!)

Why isn't there anyone sensible in the middle? I mean - 60,000,000 people in Britain, and we're stuck with a choice between the policies of a cold blooded robot and an idealistic mathematically incompetent terrorist hugging dinosaur?!

😂😂

Best post on here yet! And utterly true. It's because of this that I am going to struggle with who to vote for. I keep swinging from one side to the other. I am currently leaning towards voting for May. Corbyn is a nice man, but his ideas are not doable. Anyone who thinks they are is deluded.

Completely agree with Pollyperky's posts (on page 12) AND Sionella's. Won't copy them all as they're long-ish, but here's a few snippets.

Polly...

Can you imagine the terror threat to the UK if Diane Can't add up Abbott was in charge of it all? And her side kick John who can't admit openly he wants to get rid of MI5? But we know that's what he wants. Are you so influenced by the mantra of 'more money for everything' that you fail to see what is behind it all? How Corbyn said -he'd want to invite ISIS to have a cup of tea with him to talk about peace and less 'terror'?

Sionella

People have forgotten what a real Labour Government means.

Polly...

People who want Corbyn (and Abbott as Home Secretary? Gawd, get real please) are being hoodwinked.

We ALL want what he promises- more money for EVERYTHING! Yay -bring it on!!!! Just one question- where is the money coming from? If you tax the tiny number of super rich you end up with LESS tax. See the research. They find ways to avoid tax or they work less hard.

If you increase corporation tax, do you think Nissan, and other companies currently employing people in the NE will stay here and continue to invest in the UK? No.

The only way to give people all they want is a sound economy. Nothing, just nothing,, is possible without it. You are completely deluded if you think labour can run the economy by using their Robin Hood approach.

Sionella...

The tax thing is absolutely true. I've given an example before from a few years ago where I flogged myself raw one year and earned an exceptional performance bonus of £10k. I mean, I worked about 14-18 hours a day; I worked most weekends; I cancelled 2 holidays; I did several stints of 48 hours without going home. At 40% tax that felt worth it. The following year I fell into the 62% tax band. It was not worth it, so I didn't do it. Instead of £4,000 tax, the treasury got nil. If you desentivise people, they won't do it. Or they'll go elsewhere and do it.

Agree with all this/these...

And let's not forget that it was LABOUR who brought in the uni tuition fees in the late 1990's! So whilst we are bashing the Tory's for tripling them, it was LABOUR who introduced them.