I think the tories will lose

[ethanrayne]

I actually thought they would win, and there was nothing anyone could do. Now I think they will lose.

I know they are chuck but I think it's just scaremongering. I can't see from what I've read how your parents could end up with a £20,000 bill though?

Gardengeek - read the actual manifesto and the Full Fact page, rather than the Torygraph, eh?

The right wing press is putting a spin on this.

Not really - it's the Torygraph.
From what I could see people who own a hose worth up to £250,000 will actually be better off.
It's not a policy pledge it's in the manifesto as an idea as an alternative to council tax.

Oh, and the Tories will look at this at some point too - land taxes/a replacement for council tax are on the table whichever party gets in. Tories will protect rich landowners - labour/libs greens are less likely to.

I'm sorry GardenGeek I'm still not getting why you think people in flats or the very rich won't have to pay? It certainly doesn't look that way to me.

Oh I do hope so... I'm appalled that our society has become so unequal that we have millions living in abject poverty.

You know in the Telegraph article you link to, Garden - even that states: conservatives say it will be 3%. Labour have said no such thing - in fact they deny it. Right down at the bottom of the article: A Labour spokesman said: "This is desperate nonsense from the Tories. Labour has no such plans."

Tory scaremongering is all that article is. A load of calculations based on a mythical 3% figure.

People are "shy Tories" because they are ashamed to admit they are so selfish and Thick.

GardenGeek can you really not see that this tax is a nonsense. No government is going to introduce an unaffordable tax. No government is going to miss out groups of any description. No government is going to implement a system that would cost more than council tax. Thatcher taught them that if nothing else.

But dawn - how do you know what people consider to be an "unaffordable" tax? What you might assume they can afford might well not be the case. Plus when you pay more tax, that means less money for things like shopping, meals out, theatre trips, taxis... ok you might say boohoohoo those are first world problems, and they are - but they employ a lot of people who will suffer if spending drops too much.

This is why I wouldn't object to a tax increase, by LVT or otherwise, if I knew (i) it was fixed for the foreseeable and not the tip of the iceberg; and (ii) it would be spent effectively. I have absolutely no faith in labour on either of those points. Instead I see st jezza pouring it into a black hole and then jacking it up again year after year to try and match the deficit. Labour have done it before; they'll do it again.

But as I can't bear TM either, it's all v difficult!

I'm not a shy Tory I'm a loud, proud Tory.

Most people who support Corbyn are too thick to do sums. Corbyn like Sturgeon needs a plan to shift council tax to older people because the young are their constituency and its harder to get them to register to vote if it means paying.

Oh no not a loud proud tory, my ears can't handle the braying.

What is it about increasing the national debt, and crippling the NHS and education financially that you feel is economically literate? It seems you're the one whos struggling numerically if you think that's an example of competence.

Too thick to do sums? There are no figures given the 3% is nonsense and made up

It's looking more likely that a hung Parliament will be in place post election, just like 2010. If that is the case, then I think the government should be comprised of a cross party arrangement, especially given the pressing issue of Brexit.

I really hope Corbyn doesn't win, I despair these he's managed to bribe so many voters with his goodies for all approach. I don't understand why Rudd didn't point out the unfairness of asking non graduates to fund graduates, the opportunity cost of that policy and the huge unaffordablity of his policies now and in the future.

Also, I wonder why he hasn't been called on making the largest peacetime tax rises on individuals and corporations at a time when we are going through Brexit. Even if you agree with tax rises as I do, none of this change is being done in a careful considered manner.

The sad thing is, it'll be the people who need the most help who suffer the most. If corbyn gets in and his maths doesn't work and the economy tanks (as it always has by the end of a labour govt) and business and high earners do leave the country - and he certainly doesn't make high earners feel wanted! - then there won't be the cash to fulfil his visions and promises. So he'll increase taxes more and borrow more and it will get worse and worse. when he is then voted out, the next regime will have to pick up the pieces, and it will be the young, the disabled and those who can't afford to leave doing just that.

Why isn't there anyone sensible in the middle? I mean - 60,000,000 people in Britain, and we're stuck with a choice between the policies of a cold blooded robot and an idealistic mathematically incompetent terrorist hugging dinosaur?!

I would like to see a left leaning coalition and would love the stories to lose. But I don't think they will, despite a woeful campaign. That said, after the last couple of years, nothing is predictable!

Thank you @sleepyowl12

I am afraid I don't have the figures of how much it costs to prosecute the low disability fraud cases, as given earlier which stands at only 0.5% to hand and I need to go to sleep soon
I know the figure seems very low but as I stated earlier that figure is likely a lot higher as it would only include, I assume, those who have been caught and prosecuted? Judging from the number of people I personally know to have committed fraud I'd put the number quite a bit higher (still the figure I imagine it to be would probably be considered low too).

I do know sanctions for fraud now are very strict both in fees and prison sentences.

However, as I said previously no system is free of fraud, as the HMRC will tell you when collecting the nation's tax, but the figures show for disability benefit it is low. If people want zero fraud then they would have to stop all payments.

I hadn't considered the cost of tribunals etc from the other side of the coin, but I can imagine such costs would probably be more than those who commit fraud in the first place so it does appear to be counter-productive.

Whilst I do think there are other people the government needs to clamp down on, more so than benefit fraud, I think the reason people (myself included) get so angry about benefit fraud is because it's more visible to the average person. I don't know anyone involved in tax evasion, I don't visibly see MPs using their expenses etc (although both bother me), what I do see frequently is people committing benefit fraud (not just in regards to disibility I might add) - right now I'm at university but when I was working on minimum wage, ridiculously long hours, it was painful to see those people going about their daily lives with seemingly little care in the world. I know people like to say on here that I can't possibly know these people are committing benefit fraud but believe me I do. There are 2 people in my street at it right now. A family member of mine was convicted for fraud of over £20k. I know of many, many more. This is why I think it's unfair for people to spew hatred at those who simply feel that someting needs to be done about benefit fraud. I don't know what the solution is, the Conservatives certainly have a made a mess of the entire situation to put it mildly, but I do know that many people are fed up (in my area anyway) of those who abusing the system.

I don't understand why Rudd didn't point out the unfairness of asking non graduates to fund graduates, the opportunity cost of that policy and the huge unaffordablity of his policies now and in the future - As a student, I agree. If I want a higer education I should pay for it. MOST of my fellow students (on my course at least) disagree, they're only too happy to vote for Corbyn on this factor alone. The current system, IMO, is fine. Those who cannot afford to pay it back never have to anyway. Those who can afford to pay it back damn well should.

Sadly I still think that the most likely outcome is a Tory majority. I think May will soon be on her way out whatever the outcome.