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Original poster

SNP and oil prices!!!

45 replies

HappydaysArehere · 31/03/2015 14:00

I would love to hear from you lovely Scots people.(my grandad was a Fraser). Before the referendum there
was a lot of talk about how Scotland was really wealthy due to the price of oil. Independence, as I recall it, was largely based on the assumption that oil prices would increase. Now that oil prices have lowered do you still have the same assurance that Scotland is best as an independent idea or has this disappaited? The SNP has been particularly quiet on the subject. What are your views? Also, how do you feel about a large representative of SNPs in Parliament? Am I correct in feeling great trepidation as I must admit to a feeling that the SNP is largely based on emotional, Nationalistic hot air and
lack of reality in the modern world. There you go..... I am awaiting hostile reactions. I am only half Scottish and I don't live in your lovely Scotland! Get going, am I completely wrong?

OP posts:
caroldecker · 02/04/2015 16:02

scots why do you need info outside the independence white paper? That was what the voters were meant to base the descision on.
From page 300 onwards:

Oil and gas production is estimated to have contributed around £22 billion to Scottish GDP in 2012

Overall, Scotland has the vast bulk of the UK’s offshore oil and gas reserves, which are estimated to have a wholesale value of £1.5 trillion. Record investment in 2013 points to a bright and lengthy future for oil and gas production in Scotland.

And from the oil and gas bulletin referenced in the white paper;

Scottish oil and gas production is expected to remain a significant source of tax revenue in future years.

ScotsWhaHae · 02/04/2015 16:53

No shit Sherlock, there's money in oil. Who'd have thunk it?

That's not up for debate.

JackSkellington · 02/04/2015 17:26

Why are those who supported a No vote bothered that Scotland is likely sending a clear majority of SNP MPs to Westminster? We were told that staying united would be better, and so the UK stayed as it is. Shouldn't we all be happy that the democratic will of the Scottish people, should that result in an SNP landslide, is being exercised within the UK?
It seems a little hypocritical for the govt to say we will get a bigger say in Westminster, but not too much. Our last MP (before parliament was dissolved) was Labour, didn't like him but the majority in my constituency wanted him so fair enough.

RJnomore · 02/04/2015 21:40

Because the snp will be voted in due to neither labour nor tories being viable, not because people agree with their ideology - as shown by the no vote - but once there, they will be able to do all sorts of damage.

It's not that the snp are being voted in because we all want what they want. We just want the rest less.

ScotsWhaHae · 02/04/2015 23:06

Isn't that always the case to some degree?

There's not much damage the SNP can do with a chance of 59 seats out of 650. So I wouldn't worry.

Toadinthehole · 04/04/2015 23:20

Hirples

You can download the pdf here.

You need to read annex C "Scotland's Public Finances". If you read down, you will find a section on projected finances in 2016/17. It estimates onshore and offshore revenue of GBP 63-64 billion. Of that amount, offshore receipts (defined as oil and gas) make up GBP 6.8 to 7.9 billion of this. These forecasts are stated as being based on "scenarios published in the Scottish Government Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin". I understand that these were based on UK govt forecasts which we now know used a barrel price of $110. It has subsequently fallen to below $50.

Forecasted expenditure was $63.7, leaving a surplus of $1 billion, give or take. The surplus is approximately 1 seventh of the projected revenue from oil and gas.

Now it doesn't follow that a halving of the oil price this means a halving of revenue, although that would be enough to wipe out the projected surplus. It could also mean mothballing and decommissioning platforms, something which I believe has taken place.

Since the referendum (and the decline in the price of oil) it has been repeatedly stated that oil revenues were just a bonus and / or they could be used to establish a sovereign wealth fund. But the figures in the White Paper simply didn't allow for this. The reality is that had Scotland voted for independence it would have needed to establish a sovereign wealth fund regardless of the price of oil, in order to insulate the rest of the Scottish economy from shocks caused by fluctuations in the price (which I imagine will increase, and decline again in due course). That is why Norway has one - not so much as to save for a rainy day as to protect its economy. But on the basis of the White Paper figures, the Scottish government would have had to slash spending so much that even George Osborne would be astonished.

As it is, Scotland does not need to take such measures, because it is part of a larger state whose revenues are not significantly drawn from oil or gas.

Toadinthehole · 04/04/2015 23:28

ScotsWhaHae

Should first point out that I'm English.

There's not much damage the SNP can do with a chance of 59 seats out of 650. So I wouldn't worry.

If the SNP intend to boot some life, sense and decency into the sclerotic, complacent, corrupt and incestuous Westminster, not to mention its power-grabbing sidekick in Whitehall, then I'm all for them winning every seat in Scotland. I honestly don't see any other party that could do this. The Lib Dems could have, but they sold themselves very short. The Greens won't win enough seats, nor will UKIP.

djrmrcbhyvf · 04/04/2015 23:30

Is there no other choice in Scotland than Con, Lab or SNP? What about Green and UKIP?
Or if people feel strongly that no one represents enough of their views write 'none of the above' on the ballot paper.
It is time the voter had more say other than 'well I hate him least'!

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 05/04/2015 00:12

Is there no other choice in Scotland than Con, Lab or SNP? What about Green and UKIP?

TBH due to the first past the lost system, in the vast majority of Scottish constituencies your choice is pretty much Labour or SNP. The first past the post system is also likely to be very much in SNPs favour.

Hopefully all the pearl clutching about a significant number of SNP MPs will lead to proportional representation for WM being back on the table, and hopefully voted for this time.

caroldecker · 05/04/2015 01:16

Of course, the SNP used to be the 'tartan torys'. Now that has changed, does Scotland become and SNP/conservative fight?

Toadinthehole · 08/04/2015 03:56

Careful for what you wish for. The SNP are likely to win far more seats than they would have under a PR system.

niceguy2 · 08/04/2015 10:31

Another Independence vote?

Oh god! I sincerely hope not. Do you think this would put a lot of Scottish voters off SNP? The referendum was narrowly defeated but I know it caused a lot of open wounds in Scotland. I for one wouldn't want to see another vote so soon after the first. It just smacks of "You didn't vote the way we wanted to last time!"

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/04/2015 19:10

Do you think this would put a lot of Scottish voters off SNP

Depends how many are unionist. It is fairly obvious that if there is a majority of independence supporting MSPs then there will be another referendum. You would hope then that if people dont want a referendum, they will vote for the unionist parties.

HelenF350 · 08/04/2015 19:16

I'm a fellow Scot and would never vote SNP or for independence (much to my partners displeasure). I have always believed their spending and income calculations to be overly ambitious and ill though out. They are likely to get an awful lot of seats though, due to the turning of a lot of labour voters. I'm not sure which is the lesser of the two evils to be honest!

dementedma · 08/04/2015 19:24

Yes there will be another referendum vote...and another...and another...until the SNP get the result they want.
The impact caused by this uncertainty on the economy will be vast.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/04/2015 19:35

Yes there will be another referendum vote...and another...and another...until the SNP get the result they want.

But surely that is not down to the SNP?(&Greens &SSP) It is down to the independence supporting public who vote for independence supporting MSPs. If their wasn't enough public support these MSPs would never get voted in.

caroldecker · 08/04/2015 20:33

It is possible people vote SNP despite the independence desire, not because of it, or are they a one issue party?

Toadinthehole · 18/04/2015 22:30

The nature of party politics is that you vote for the party (or candidate) whose manifesto you like best. If the SNP win a Holyrood election on a manifesto that includes seeking a second referendum, no one can complain if that's what they do.

...but the SNP ought to remember that they will probably lose the referendum, and if they try for a third time they'll get kicked out, possibly for a good while as presumably some other Scottish political party will have got its act together by then.

DowntownFunk · 26/04/2015 21:52

Toad that doesn't really stand up. SNP are more popular than they've ever been and there's just been a referendum with a no result.

Toadinthehole · 27/04/2015 02:53

I said a few things - which part don't you agree with?

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