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So, what will it take for the Tories tod itch Cameron?

110 replies

WetAugust · 26/04/2014 21:30

Tories are predicted to come 3rd in the 22 May Euro elections.

They are predicted to lose councillors in the local elections on the same date.

Then there's the Scottish referendum.

How many of these elections can he afford to lose before someone in his party overthrows him?

Who will be leading the party at the General Election in May 2015?

Same question about Clegg - when will the Libs ditch him as unelectable?

OP posts:
Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 00:29

What a totally stupid question.

Ukip is THE one-policy-pony-party of 'protest' with nothing else to offer. and what a taxpayer expensive protest it is with sub standard Ukip MEP's who don't want to be in Europe on;MEP’s £78,000 annual salary + Daily attendance Allowance + Staff Costs + £3,500 monthly allowance paid into their personal account no matter what their expenses are.

The Conservatives as the party in governments so as in EVERY OTHER NON GENERAL ELECTION will be protested against, despite the fantastic recovery in the economy - and thanks to their reforms to keep the UK's £157 bil budget deficit in control finances and stimulus to the Private Sector/jobs.

There is nothing else the Conservatives can do other than what they have done, no matter who led them.

If Labour would have been re elected in 2010, this country would have been in a financial, job and social crisis, so come 2015, as in 1979 'the people' would have been looking for the Conservatives to get us out of the crisis.

So thanks to the Labour friendly electoral boundary lines, in 2015 it will be;
Vote Labour to get a pro EU, pro immigration and economically incompetent Labour/Miliband
or
Vote Ukip get a pro EU, pro immigration and economically incompetent Labour/Miliband.

So come 2015 if Ukip still have the protest vote ON THE DAY, the country will get what it deserves - but before then Ukip after 20-years will finally have to produce an election manifesto it stands for that gets votes from all three main parties - and those policies will be scrutinized by all to spot the "drivel before Farage does, usually AFTER the election.

news.sky.com/story/1200525/nigel-farage-disowns-ukip-manifesto-as-drivel
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has disowned the party's entire (2010) general election manifesto - which he helped launch - branding it "drivel”.

WetAugust · 27/04/2014 00:39

Ismebut

You have totally failed to discuss my OP.

This is not about UKIP.

It's about the Tories and it's not a stupid question as the Tory party will probably accept a trouncing in the Euro elections but if they lose Scotland on Cameron's watch he will be toast.

I cannot imagine how a Prime Minister, especially a Conservative and Unionist one could possibly lead the party into the next General Election if he has so badly managed the Scottish referendum that the country is no longer part of the UK!

OP posts:
Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 01:47

WetAugust….sorry, I thought you were playing an old Cameron record, I never saw Scotland.lol

The EU Election; as I say a UKip protest vote against the government where the Conservatives come third has long been expected – even though they are the only main party who will offer the people a referendum – how stupid a protest is that, don’t answer.

The Scotland Independence vote: when the Conservatives lost power in 1997, we were as close to Scottish independence then, as Farage becoming Prime Minister in 2015, well nearly lol.

In a nutshell, we then get a 1997 Labour Party stuffed with senior Scottish M.P.’s who then brought us to where we are now; as the teased Scotland with more power (for Labour votes) thinking it was near mathematically impossible for Salmond’s SNP to gain enough power themselves, to force the independence vote – so bearing in mind the parliamentary Labour Party aren’t big on ‘people power voting’, how did that work out?

It just so happens the referendum is happening on Cameron’s watch, with I think 1 Conservative Westminster MP in Scotland, with I think around 20 Labour Westminster MPs – so on a partisan basis, one could argue that if Scotland is independent, and both parties lose their MP’s, it will go a long way to addressing Labour’s dodgy electoral boundary lines elsewhere – so Cameron could become a Conservative legend. lol

But unlike Miliband who’d do anything including knife his brother for votes, Cameron understanding the historical significance and the common sense in remaining together, wants to do what he believes is right for Queen and the rest of the UK – so knowing he and his party is about as welcome as Farage and Ukip in Scotland, is allowing Labour to lead the ‘STAY’ campaign so if they don’t raise their ‘stay’ game, politically they are the party that will lose out.

A major incentive you’d think and that probably explains Mr Miliband’s speech last week on zero-hours reform in Scotland, clumsily IMO, telling them he can help them if they stay in the UK, with treaty reforms as a UK ‘job lot’, literally.

In conclusion; don’t hold your breath, as in the EU elections he was always going to be third and if Scotland leave the UK it will be due to Labour’s electoral miscalculations and rubbish economic legacy, Cameron will DEFINITELY be fighting the 2015 general election with POSITIVE electioneering, on the growing economy/jobs due to their plan/policies.

But I’d suspect if the Conservatives badly lose the 2015 general election, taking into consideration the stacked boundary lines that means they need to be about 7-8% AHEAD of Labour in the polls to get a small majority, he’d probably go.

But then again, what if he ‘fails’ re Scotland and the Conservatives could bounce back more easily in 2020 once Labour lose Scottish Westminster seats and screw the economy/jobs again, or would Labour in power be able to fix that as well and keep those seats.

TheHammaconda · 27/04/2014 08:09

I think he's safe until the next election (barring some kind of personal scandal or catastrophic event). Replacing him now means the Conservatives could kiss goodbye to whatever chance they have of a majority in 2015. Even if they won in 2015 I doubt he'd last the parliament - there are too many people positioning themselves to take over the leadership.

Treaclepot · 27/04/2014 08:13

Isitmebut, are you insinuating that only Tory voters are stupid enough to vote for UKIP?

claig · 27/04/2014 10:17

I think Cameron will be gone soon after the Euro elections. A new Sunday Times poll for the Euro elections shows UKIP in the lead at 31%, Labour at 28% and the Tories at a shockingly low 19%.

UKIP is the party that not long ago was described by some leading Tories as "fruitcakes, loons and racists".

'Replacing him now means the Conservatives could kiss goodbye to whatever chance they have of a majority in 2015'

I think holding on to him means kissing goodbye to a majority in 2015.

claig · 27/04/2014 10:20

I think Cleggy will also be gone soon after the Euro elections. Holding onto him will also be disastrous for the LibDems.

"the Tories at a shockingly low 19%"

And this is for a party that has promised to offer a referendum on the EU. It hasn't worked. They need new faces, new policies and no more spin.

TheHammaconda · 27/04/2014 11:39

I think you're right about Clegg, Claig. Who could take over from him? They'd need someone who could work with the Conservatives in coalition and has popular appeal? Danny Alexander works well in coalition but isn't particularly charismatic; Cable's got the appeal but hasn't been great in coalition.

WetAugust · 27/04/2014 12:13

I think losing the eu elections has already been factored in by central office. But if the UKIP effect continues after those elections and they continue to stay in double figures in the opinion polls, I can imagine a few Tory mp's with narrow majorities getting very twitchy.

Plus, Cameron had never been universally accepted within his own party. He,s not a conviction politician. David Davies is and has even resigned from the cabinet over his beliefs and is anti eu.

I could envisage a leadership challenge post the Scottish referendum if Scotland votes to leave and that challenge will come from Davies.

The libs are finished. Clegg may even lose his own student heavy constituency. But there,s no natural successor. I think most people have seen Vince is hopeless, Sarah teacher is going.... Not much talent left yo chose from

OP posts:
claig · 27/04/2014 12:50

' Danny Alexander works well in coalition but isn't particularly charismatic; Cable's got the appeal but hasn't been great in coalition.'

I actually like Danny Alexander a lot. At the beginning, I thought he had little charisma etc, but after listening to him, my respect for him has increased. He is serious, makes good sense and never gets angry when challenged etc. He is surprisingly good and is not arrogant and doesn't put voters off. He is capable and could do the job. The public cares more about substance than image and spin and the key quality that a politician must have is not to turn the public off with falseness and spin and he does not turn the public off.

Vince Cable is also OK and the fact that he has challenged the Tories is a plus point for him. It shows that he is his own man and has his own beliefs, he is not just a professional spinner, so challenging the Tories and differentiating himself from them will win him votes.

claig · 27/04/2014 12:56

David Davis is very good and crucially he is not a spinner. he has convictions and stands by them. I think Cameron cannot win disaffected Tory voters back. Too much spin, too little substance. David Davis could do it. Davis could even make an attempt at challenging Farage and winning back disaffected Tories.

"The Tory revolt over Europe took a dramatic turn last night after senior Conservative David Davis called on the Government to open talks with Brussels on quitting the EU.


Former Tory chairman Mr Davis tore into David Cameron, accusing him of making a mess of his pledge to win back powers from the EU.


‘Scaremongers’ who said Britain would collapse if it decided to go it alone were talking nonsense, said Mr Davis. Quitting the EU would be like a ‘revolution’ and would boost UK jobs, wages, world power, arts and prestige, he added.


Significantly, his intervention comes days after two televised political debates in which anti-EU leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, crushed pro-EU Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg.


And it will spark claims that Mr Davis is turning himself into a Tory version of Mr Farage , ready to exploit the leadership crisis Mr Cameron would face if UKIP makes big gains in next month’s Euro elections."



www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2597945/Get-ready-quit-EU-Davis-tells-Tories-tears-Cameron-predicts-UKIP-triumph-Euro-elections.html

People are fed up of politically correct professional spinners. They are crying out for some substance and some conviction. No more spin is the only way to win.

claig · 27/04/2014 13:29

Imagine if David Davis debated Farage. As great a performer as Farage is, he would not be able to trounce Davis like he trounced the chum, Cleggy.
That's because Davis is not a spinner and because on many issues he would agree with Farage and therefore there could be no argument.

With Davis, the Tories might even be able to rebrand themselves and get rid of spin and attract some of the huge numbers now voting for UKIP. The anti UKIP people, turned off by some of the fringe fruitcake statements, would prefer Davis to UKIP.

But, we know that the real elite want us to remain in Europe, so would they allow any major party to threaten exit from the elite's club? Is Davis really a safe pair of hands for the elite, is he enough of a chum for them?

Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 13:48

Claig …..re Cameron going after the European elections, I think that you have been repeating your badly qualified opinion on Cameron’s demise for so long, that you have lost touch with political reality; where although the majority Ukip voters may have a mono issue they focus on (whatever it is), for the majority of people, especially core Conservative, they look at a whole range of issues that Cameron is delivering on.

And for every month until the election, things will get better domestically and in comparison with other countries and the electorate will realise that whether they look at the economy, readdressing social issues, our EU membership, immigration and other issues, in 2015 ONLY the Conservatives of Labour will form the next administration – and ‘protesting’ about those facts or calling it spin when Ukip HAVE no policies to spin (which is worse), will be both like peeing against the wind and dumping the incompetent Labour Party back in power.

Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 13:50

Treaclepot …..no I am not saying that “only Conservative voters are stupid enough to vote for Ukip”, but as the majority of the core Labour voters will vote Labour no matter how incompetent they are (as apparently whatever they do e.g. mass immigration is ‘in touch’), so EVEN IF for every Conservative voter protesting via a Ukip vote it is matched by a previous Labour voter - THE FACT that the Conservatives need to be several points AHEAD in the polls on election day (as they need far more individual votes than Labour to get the same parliamentary majority), any vote for Ukip is, in one way or another, a vote for Labour administration, as in 2010.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/7693877/General-Election-2010-Ukip-challenge-cost-Tories-a-Commons-majority.html

Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 13:53

WetAugust…”the Ukip affect” is similar to every protest against the Great Recession and attempts at austerity across Europe at the moment; it is a political a ‘earthquake’ , causing a relatively short and damaging shock, but as long as an established political party (whether in government or not) has on balance all the right policies, all they can do it sit it out and appeal to those with a better grasp of the reality, including worshipping an earthquake with no powers whatsoever to directly benefit society, or the economy.

On the choice of the three main parties that will in one permutation or another form the next government in 2015, only the Conservatives come anywhere close to United Kingdom Independence issue that Ukip has named on it’s can – so if Ukip voters can’t see that simple fact and who crashed the economy in the first place, there is nothing else a Conservative hierarchy can do about that.

Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 14:03

Claig …for Christ’s sakes DO get a grip on what you are saying… how can any party DEBATE with a political party WITHOUT a manifesto, as all Ukip/Farage has to do is ATTACK, they have NOTHING to defend, either having ever been in government or sticking not flip flopping policies for votes.

How can Ukip lecture ANYONE on ‘spin’, when the worse possible spin is WIN VOTES (and influence an election) on a 2010 manifesto, AND AFTER FARAGE CALL IT “DRIVEL”. Guffaw.

claig · 27/04/2014 14:11

'the worse possible spin is WIN VOTES (and influence an election) on a 2010 manifesto, AND AFTER FARAGE CALL IT “DRIVEL”'

That is called honesty and ethical conduct, and the public loved it. Farage's popularity polls shot up when he called the old manifesto "drivel", because that was in touch with the public who thought it was "drivel" too.

Farage is a humble man, willing to accept mistakes and call "drivel" drivel. He does not stand on ceremony or spout spin like some Tories are accustomed to do.

Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 16:08

Claig....you attack time after time a few Lib Dem and Conservative policies in their 2010 manifesto they HAD to ditch UNDER the urgent (left versus righ politics) Coalition Agreement needed to restore political and markets order - yet in 'Claig World' Ukip can ditch the whole bleedin' lot under no such pressures and it's called "honesty and ethical"?????

The votes were already in, Ukips votes resulted in the first coalition in several decades being forced upon this country - we COULD have had a political policy impasse resulting in economic/social disasters - yet Farage would have been without blame as he's a good egg, what, are you his wife??????????

Of course the point is if Ukip Farage did it in the last elections, what's to stop them doing it again rather than try and alienate any of the cross party voters?

With such a flakey regard for policies and the importance on continued growth in this country, under no circumstances should Cameron or Miliband even think of allowing Farage into a policy debate, for the very obvious 'once bitten' reason above - and that piss-poor effort of a manifesto was after being around nearly 20-years.

WetAugust · 27/04/2014 17:29

Ismebut

You are preaching to the converted. UKIP is a political bandwagon that people are hitching their horses to for a variety of reasons, without really understanding that the primary objective of UKIP is to leave the EU.

They were better IMO when their sole policy was to leave the EU rather than having a whole portfolio fo policies.

I know UKIP will not get a single seat in the General Elections.

The most it can achieve is to influence Tory policy.

And Labour getting back in doesn't bother me as all the major parties are just as bad as each other and none of them will actually leave the EU, they'll always find an excuse not to.

The people who run the show are the lobbyists - they pump their millions into Brussels to buy influence. Kinnock and family, rejected by the UK electrorate, have made hay over there. The whole edifice stinks from top to bottom.

Whichever party we elect has its hands tied by Brussels anyway so I really can't work up any enthusiasm for any of them.

OP posts:
LilyBolero · 27/04/2014 17:35

Cameron will stay till after the General Election. There is no chance of the Torys getting an outright majority - pretty well no government has increased their share of the vote having been in power, at least not for decades. Cameron has disenfranchised most of his core vote, but has not picked up others. A fairly frightening stat (if you're a Tory) is that 1/3 of people who voted Conservative in 2010 will not vote Tory again in 2015, according to polls.

Boris is positioning himself to take over after 2015, imo, and Gideon also. Theresa May possibly?

Clegg could go any time, but I think the Lib Dems are destined to have massive losses in 2015, with the only possible way out for them if Tim Farron takes over - he very carefully voted against tuition fee rises, and I reckon got the Party Presidency on the back of it. He is therefore not tainted by that particular scandal, and can hold his hands up and say 'it wasn't in my name'.

Personally, I hope Clegg loses his seat. And I hope Labour win an outright majority, so that the snivelly Libdems don't stay in power. It is no democracy when a party comes a wretched 3rd (or 4th?), and is in Government - how can you vote someone out then? And then it will be up to Labour to do something with their time, and be judged on it accordingly.

LilyBolero · 27/04/2014 17:36

Wrt Danny Alexander, he is a toerag imo. Anyone who thinks he is 'good' should listen to him trying to justify coalition economic policies, from tuition fees, to child benefit, to the bedroom tax.

Isitmebut · 27/04/2014 18:36

LilyBolero ...I certainly agree with your view on the enormity and likely outcome of the Conservative 2015 challenge even though the 2010 results were skewed by a strong Lib Dem and Ukip voting that may or may not be there ON THE DAY on a two main party choice - but please explain how "Cameron has disenfranchised most of his core vote"?

LilyBolero · 27/04/2014 19:41

Isitmebut

There are a great many issues which the Tory core vote are very angry about;

Planning reforms
HS2
Gay marriage

being only 3.

LilyBolero · 27/04/2014 19:52

I also think they think Cameron has reneged on his 'cast iron guarantee' on an EU referendum, and many will turn to UKIP to protest against Cameron, and I think this may well be the case in the general election as well as the European elections tbh, because it will be a 'vote against Cameron' - if Tories won the election, then Cameron would stay, and I don't think the Tory grass -roots want that.

If nothing else, he has been very rude about them and to them on numerous occasions! Referring to them as 'swivel-eyed loons' probably didn't help.

LilyBolero · 27/04/2014 19:56

Another area they have disenfranchised core tory voters is in their attacks on the 'traditional' family. It is very financially disadvantageous to have a mother stay at home with children now - you are far far better off to have 2 equal earning partners; this is through child benefit reforms, the lowering of the HRT threshold and the introduction of the childcare allowances for 2 working parents.

If you are a SAHM with a dh earning something in the 50-70k bracket (many of whom have traditionally being core tory voters, and whose parents also have been), you have been totally screwed by the government. And I think a lot of people are very angry about that also.

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