Slow morning so thought I'd research this a little as this is almost certainly a case where perception over-rides the reality, similar to a fear of flying. More accurately, how rationale/ irrationale is it to be scared of leaving your child in a hotel room with a monitor for fear of abduction or death?
So, how many children in total do you imagine are actually killed by strangers or burned to death each year versus other causes of death? Having quickly looked at the Office of National Statistics, in 2004 the number of children under the age of 14 who died:
- as a result of smoke/ fire: 23
- as a result of a traffic accident: 166
The number of children of the same age group seriously injured as a result of a traffic accident, incidentally, was 3,700. Your child is almost 8 times more likely to be killed by a car than by a fire. More than 2 million children (according to the BBC) end up in hospital each year as a result of road traffice accidents.
Looking through reports it seems likely that in the case of deaths by fire and smoke inhalation, the majority, if not all, were at the family home with one or both parents there with other family members also dying in the fire (typically multiple deaths in a single incident which push up the numbers). Looking through Google I can't see one news report of any British child dying in a hotel fire anywhere in Europe.
In terms of the number of children under five killed by a stranger each year, between 1987-1993, the average was one per year and this has remained largely constant since then. In 1997, the total number of children under the age of 16 killed by a stranger was 11 but a stranger" is simply defined as where "there is insufficient information to determine the relationship to the victim". So for example, one teenager stabbing another would probably come into this category - given the very very low level of children under five killed by a stranger, it's probably fair to assume this type of violence (i.e. school/ gang related) accounts for a fair proportion of the 11.
How many children do you suppose are abducted each year? Well, this looks a bit more complex as 'abductions' include abductions by parents, other family members, boyfriends, revenge kidnappings, grooming and other exploitative relationships. Looking at 0-2 year olds as the simplest (they're unlikely to be groomed, abducted by boyfriends etc) the total number of attempted abductions in 2003 was 14. Every single case involved an attempt to take the child from direct control of its parent, i.e. there were zero abductions in the McCann sense.
To put it further into perspective with a population of that age group of 11 million, the odds on your child being killed by a stranger are, let's generously say, 1 million to 1 (although the odds of them actually being taken from a hotel room by a stranger and killed is probably several multiples higher). The odds on them being killed by fire/ smoke are about 500,000 to 1 (although technically the odds on them being killed by fire in an unattended hotel room is probably several multiples higher - and bear in mind how many children die in house fires whilst their parents are in the room next door or just downstairs). The odds on a toddler being successfully abducted by a stranger is technically zero whilst the odds on even an attempted abduction from its parent is also about 500,000 to 1. The odds, on the other hand of: your child being killed in a road accident are 66,000 to 1/ seriously injured 3,000 to 1/ hospitalised 5 to 1. To put this further into perspective, the odds of someone being killed by flooding are 150,000 to 1 and someone being killed by lightning are 80,000 to 1.
It seems to me certainly the case that, like fear of flying, that the fear of leaving you child in a hotel room with a monitor isn't irrationale in that it's simply not supported by the evidence. Or to put it another way, if you consider it to be rationale, you'd certainly never drive your child anywhere, let them cycle anywhere or indeed walk anywhere near a road.