Brexit: where are we? What could happen next? Webchat with three experts on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm

[RowanMumsnet]

Hello

We’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit, the ‘divorce’ agreement, and possible outcomes, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media.

Professors Menon and Barnard joined us before the Brexit referendum in June 2016 - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory/reliving the heady atmosphere.

Please do join the chat on Tuesday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

@caringcarer

you seem to think if we leave EU on WTO rules we will have no water. … The most common chemical for purifying water is salt. How do you think we got water before in EU? ....

Clumsy sentence construction on my part - while the UK might not run out of water, a shortage is very much possible. This is based on the issue of chemicals (not just salt) being delayed at the border, which will happen if border controls are introduced.

You state finished goods cannot be exported but on WTO rules we can export to any country and we can put 0 tarriffs on them.

Finished goods cannot be exported if their certifications (e.g. CE-mark) are no longer valid. They will be delayed if the ports clog up. The UK does not determine what tariffs are paid on UK exports - it is the importing country that sets the tariff.

There is a danger that France will deliberately delay UK goods at border but UK plans are to open up new shipping routes so less dependent on Calais.

Of course goods will be checked when entering the EU from a Third Country. Landing the goods at an alternative port (Dieppe, Zeebrugge, Esbjerg) doesn't alter this. Calais cannot actually accept any food products from the UK - it doesn't have the facilities to store and inspect agricultural goods, so these will need to go via Dunkirk, where the capacity is limited.

Why would you want to belong to club that is so vindictive to any country wanting to leave?

Brexiter discovers that once the UK leaves the EU and makes it's own rules, the EU insists that in the EU, EU rules apply.

We do import many drugs but we also export UK drugs to EU countries. UK has apparently been stock piling drugs we import and EU countries like Southern Ireland have too.

Stockpiling of drugs (and food and chemicals) is only a short-term solution. Once the stockpile has been used, unless normal levels of supply are reinstated, the goods run out. For drugs, this might be a matter of weeks. For food, it might be a matter of days if people panic-buy. Some things cannot easily be stockpiled - e.g. perishable medicines and isotopes that require special storage that is simply not available in the volume required.

Why can't we leave on WTO terms which is how many countries trade

Only one country trades under WTO terms (Mauritania). As Togaandsandals explains, there is no set of WTO terms sitting in a drawer somewhere that click into action on 30th March and replace the 750 Agreements that the UK currently has with the rest of the world, and which become invalid in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Anyway - what is your question to the panel?

Where is this country, Southern Ireland? (Not a question for the experts, BTW.)

is it part of the Republic of Ireland?

How do you think a People's Vote can best be achieved? How likely do you think this is?

Absolutely. The referendum was always "advisory" unfortunately it got hi-jacked by the illegal activities of the Leave campaign.
Revoking Article 50 is the only way forward at this stage.

I have 2 questions for the panel:

1. the PM frequently refers to 'ending free movement' as the key benefit of her Withdrawal Agreement. She never mentions it is a reciprocal right. Please would you explain what ending 'free movement' will mean for UK citizens? How will it affect UK citizens wishing to live, work, study or retire in the EU?; and
2. the PM's proposals for the UK's future deal with the EU leave our Services sector (80% of the economy) entirely out of the single market. She has never explained that choice, nor its impact on the sector both practical and economic- can you? Many thanks, Lucy (Solicitor)

If Theresa May is so sure that Brexit is the will of the British People what is the danger of a People's Vote on Mrs May's Deal, with an option to remain in the EU?

If Mrs May's Brexit truly is the will of the people the vote will be in her favour. If the British Public have woken up to the disaster that is Brexit, then we deserve an Exit before it's too late to revoke Article 50, and remain in the EU on our current very favourable terms.

My question is why are we proceeding with Brexit when - 1. It was an advisory referendum only, and purposely legislated to be advisory (debates as such and hence no requirement for a super majority to enact major constitutional change) 2. Vote leave broke electoral law 3. Lies were told not just about the EU but about all the money we were supposedly going to get for vital services (NHS) when we leave, which we now know was completely false and the cost of Brexit to get to this terrible stage has hemorraged funds that could have gone to the NHS, Schools, policing etc. 4. When it is costing the economy dearly and will continue to do so for 20 years 5. When it is forcing us to be a minor world player and lap dogs for a Trump US. Finally, given that the EU have indicated, and the author of Art50 has stated that it can be revoked, why aren’t we at the very least going back to the nation and saying this is the deal, it’s worse than we have now (by a long way), removes you of your rights, but now you know the true choice do a small majority of you still want to leave.

What do you think are the top 3 most likely outcomes? For example do you feel that come the 30th of March the country will be in a no deal scenario, will the Gov be applying for an A50 extension for a People's Vote, will this Withdrawal Agreement pass or is your educated guess that there will be a General election? I have no idea why the latter would be helpful

And what is your preferred outcome?

Thanks to everyone agreeing to do the webchat and to MumsnetHQ for arranging it

As there are not many questions, I ask to be allowed a second question.

In the event of the UK leaving on 29th March with 'No Deal' and the UK economy suffering a reduction in trade and GDP, how long does the panel think it will take for the UK economy to recover to 2016 levels of trade and prosperity?

The supplementary question to this is - if the answer is a number of years (Rees-Mogg suggests 50 years?) before the benefits of Brexit become tangible, how does the panel expect the UK population to respond in the first 3 years? Would there, for example, be a clamour to re-join the EU, and would the EU be likely to re-admit the UK?

My daughter was 16 at the time of the last referendum would have voted remain if given the chance. Brexit is something that will have impacts on her for the rest of her life. She is now 18. Do you think it right that she should have a say now through a People's Vote?

I believe it's important to acknowledge those areas of the UK where the Leave vote was highest - so here's my proposal. Those MPs who want to vote against the deal say they will agree to it IF TM applies two further conditions to her plan. One, she promises a three way second referendum in the New Year: Deal, No deal, No Brexit. No space here to go into the maths re the outcome. Two, she bins expensive projects such as the high speed rail link and expansion of Heathrow, and promises instead to invest far more in the development of the North East and other areas where people are obviously struggling most and will ironically, as economists suggest, will suffer most from leaving the EU! Also to be taken into consideration is the ECJ's impending decision re revoking Article 50... which might, in fact, be the simplest outcome of all in the immediate future. What does the panel think re this?

How can article 50 actually be reversed given the European court's decision today

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How will any of the Brexit scenarios be affected by the coming EU tax evasion reforms due January 2019?

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purplelindyloo ECJ haven't made a decision today and are not expected to come to a decision for possibly weeks so not sure where you've got that from?

A bit like testing testing one, two, three.

Lots of politicians are complaining about Theresa's deal and think they can do better. Is there a lack of understanding that there are 27 or so other countries out there who have to agree to a deal and also have their own wants and desires for the outcome? They seem to lack theory of mind that other people have an input and not just some faceless machine of the EU that will give us what we want.

Hello

We've got Professors Anand and Portes here at MNHQ at Professor Barnard in her office so we're ready to go - thanks for all your questions

Hello

Very nice to be participating in this chat with you. Thanks for all the questions so far.

We shall try to answer as many as possible

Best wishes

Catherine Barnard

Hi. We're here and ready to (try) to answer your questions

Hi - we're getting started! All your Brexit questions answered..or at least you'll be just as confused as we are..

@EmmaGx

If Theresa May is so sure that Brexit is the will of the British People what is the danger of a People's Vote on Mrs May's Deal, with an option to remain in the EU?

If Mrs May's Brexit truly is the will of the people the vote will be in her favour. If the British Public have woken up to the disaster that is Brexit, then we deserve an Exit before it's too late to revoke Article 50, and remain in the EU on our current very favourable terms.

I think she wants to avoid a referendum and the 'will of the people' is just the line she has settled on. Politically, it would be very hard for her to sanction another vote, not least as it will cause enormous unhappiness in her party