Brexit: where are we? What could happen next? Webchat with three experts on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm

[RowanMumsnet]

Hello

We’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit, the ‘divorce’ agreement, and possible outcomes, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media.

Professors Menon and Barnard joined us before the Brexit referendum in June 2016 - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory/reliving the heady atmosphere.

Please do join the chat on Tuesday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

If i hate eggs you would like to know before i publish an article on how bad eggs are for you? Or if i own shares in fossil fuel wouldn't you want to know before i write about how electric cars are not right and can't work. Do you not realise how insulting this is?

No, I'm not saying their opinion is worthless. These people are experts, i agree with that. But then i also know that everyone is biased and i want to know how they voted, so that i can assess what they say against how they voted. But hey wanting to know how boased a source is, is insulting 🤷‍♂️

What are you going to do about the housing issue? What do you predict will happen? How do you propose to fix the current situation with funding for social services etc as well? Are you going to explore other options or not?

If we leave with no deal, what would be the implications for the Good Friday Agreement and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?

Thanks for coming to chat to us. I had a quick scroll through the 2016 webchat and was shocked by how many of the questions that we were asking then still haven't been resolved.

What do you think are the best and the most contentious points within the WA?

Given the number of people who are having to use food banks and the total disaster that is universal credit, coupled with the rhetoric about foreigners taking our jobs, what do you feel the impact will be on the people who already feel disenfranchised and disheartened by the lack of social mobility should this bad deal be accepted by Parliament when it seems to be about keeping the rich richer while they starve whilst failing to achieve any of the referendum promises?
Sorry, I won't be around at the time but will check in later.

@caringgiver, written by a barrister specialising in EU law Brexit, competition & consumer disputes, regulatory challenges, WTO/international trade.

“Although the UK is a signatory to the WTO in its own right, there are no WTO terms that apply specifically to the U.K. as it has been operating under the EU’s umbrella for so many years. Dealing under WTO terms requires each country to have something called a ‘Schedule of Tariffs’, which applies tariffs to all imports into a country as well as quotas for a certain amount of tariff free goods. Brexiteers are saying we can simply rely on “default terms” or the EU’s Schedule of Tariffs. But that has recently been blocked by members of the WTO. Understandably. Why should the U.K. as a minor player be able to take advantage of the negotiating position of a large global trading bloc with a combined GDP like the EU?

So we will have to negotiate our own Schedule of Tariffs – which means getting the agreement of all 163 WTO members. The last successful round of negotiations was in 1994 – every round since then has collapsed without reaching the unanimous agreement required within the WTO framework.

So unless we can set up emergency cover by using the EU Schedule or our own schedule without formal approval, we will enter unchartered territory kicking in on 30 March with no transition period. Leavers say, well we will just be like Australia or New Zealand or Norway. But Australia has Free Trade Agreements in place with over 17 countries, including the US, China, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and deals with another 20 countries are signed and in the pipeline.”

Sorry if this question is too simplistic:

If a no deal brexit would be catastrophic and the current potential deal is worse than the place we are in now (ie a part of the EU). Why don’t we just stay in?

It used to be that 'no deal was better than a bad deal'. Now, that has changed and a bad deal seems better than nothing.

Acknowledging that to remain is better for now, shouldn’t be so hard surely?

(I actually think it’s pitiful that the MPs have rushed into this head first without a plan. At least, there should have been a plan in place before rushing to trigger Artlcle 50...)

OK three remainers. Given that the "deal" is not going to get through parliament. we are left with No deal.Is no deal better than denying a free vote?

That makes no sense sorry.
When we leave with no deal when is the plague of locust due to arrive?

@ginghambox, I believe the public should be given a vote on the deal. Parliament can add an amendment to the vote on the deal and after.

What difference do you think the average family, who don't have offspring studying for high earning vocations abroad or vacation regularly in Europe or indeed have partners earning vast amounts thanks to the EU old boys club, will experience post Brexit?

ginghambox

False question

"what are the alternatives?"

• Theresa's deal
• no deal
• stay in

I'm generally concerned about the state we will be left in if we leave with no deal., financially, medically etc. Do you think there is any chance at all of no Brexit?

Gingham - 3 remainers 😂

Come on mn! At least try!

Who do you think will benefit the most and who will benefit the least in the UK, in the event of ;

1. The deal currently available

Or

1. No deal

I am struggling to see actual quantifiable benefits from either situation, except apparently if we accept one, the potential for the other to happen is minimised.

Thank you

What's the matter @GoodStuffAnnie , afraid of engaging with anyone who disagrees with you?
If I wish weally weally hard de wainbows and unicorns will come!

Disclaimer - I know the WA isn't the actual deal we will end up with and there are many more years of negotiation ahead of us before the actual deal is finalised

Several opposition parties (Labour for one, and the SNP) seem to be suggesting that they could negotiate a better deal, but Theresa May says it’s this or no deal (which seemingly everyone agrees will be bad to varying extents). The EU itself have also made clear that the deal will not be reopened, and given that it’s taken so long to agree this one (and the apparent inflexibility if the EU’s position), I'm inclined to believe that. Do you believe that reopening the negotiations at the 11th hour is realistic, or are the opposition being deluded/playing politics?

Can "no deal" ever be compatible with the Good Friday agreement?

At this point, with an unsellable and bad deal, a possibility of no deal or a slim chance of no brexit all on the table, what do you think personally is the best way forward for the UK?

Thanks LaDaronne I'm tired of people spouting on about the will of the British people when the rights of so many of the British people are being summarily curtailed without so much as a by your leave.

However if you live in an EU country and have been there for some time as in working there you can apply for citizenship of that country if you want to. Yes, carer but France allows dual nationality. The country I live in doesn't, so I'd be forced to give up my British nationality or be 100% disenfranchised. But hey, I'm alright Jack and all that.