Brexit: where are we? What could happen next? Webchat with three experts on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm

[RowanMumsnet]

Hello

We’re pleased to announce a webchat on Brexit, the ‘divorce’ agreement, and possible outcomes, with three guests from The UK in a Changing Europe on Tuesday 27 November at 1.30pm.

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.


Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.


Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at Kings College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media.

Professors Menon and Barnard joined us before the Brexit referendum in June 2016 - you can check out that webchat here if you fancy refreshing your memory/reliving the heady atmosphere.

Please do join the chat on Tuesday. If you can’t make it, please leave a question here in advance. Do bear in mind the webchat guidelines - one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

[Talkinpeece]

Tiscold
I do not think anybody who has studied Brexit is impartial.
Many are against it, many are for it, but only the utterly uninformed have no opinion.
Hopefully the three people invited are extremely well informed and so may be able to answer some of the questions already listed.

[YeOldeTrout]

It's a shame that we're still judging anyone's input based on assuming they have a blinkered opinion. As soon as they declare a vote different from ours then they get discounted completely. Very unintelligent way to have a discussion. :(

One of the experts on the original webchat (Anand Menon) also wrote an editorial in the Guardian about how the role of experts was to provide balance & knowledge, and NOT to persuade (the editorial was a riposte to Gove's comment on experts).

[MyNameIsArthur]

Sorry, I don't think I will be able to join your live webchat tomorrow but will read the thread afterwards. My questions are:

With the UK outside the EU, is the EU more likely to gather it's pace towards federalism?

What economic threats does the EU face internally such as the Euro and externally such as globalisation?

How well is the EU attempting to adapt to the new world economic order?

[MyNameIsArthur]

Also,

Two years has obviously not been a realistic time to unravel 45 years of EU membership. When the Lisbon Treaty introduced article 50 , was the two year period really a deliberate attempt by the EU to disadvantage any country that ever wanted to leave from getting a good deal because of the pressure to negotiate a deal in an unrealistically short period of time?

[MyNameIsArthur]

Sorry I've been greedy with all my questions!

[bossyrossy]

LaDaroone, my son and his wife both work abroad for the EU. They have been told that their jobs will come to an end when we leave the EU in March.

[bossyrossy]

Sorry LaDaronne, I spelt your name wrong.

[caringcarer]

I saw an article in paper by David Trimble who said he believed Irish border was being used as a scapegoat by EU to ensure UK stayed in Customs Union. DUP also seem adamant that they would prefer leaving with WTO terms and some kind of border in Ireland better than deal May has negotiated. Why can't we leave on WTO terms which is how many countries trade and refuse to put up border and instead use the trusted trader and electronic scheme on Irish border? If EU chose to put up border then leave them to it as Trimble stated NI border and Brexit not as connected as EU would have us believe. I think people forget we sell less to EU than EU sells to us and we trade more with non EU countries than other EU countries do so we are less dependent on EU than many realise.

[caringcarer]

Havanananana you seem to think if we leave EU on WTO rules we will have no water. This is totally not true. The most common chemical for purifying water is salt. How do you think we got water before in EU? My dh works for Ofwat and they see it as a non issue and fear mongering.
You state finished goods cannot be exported but on WTO rules we can export to any country and we can put 0 tarriffs on them. There is a danger that France will deliberately delay UK goods at border but UK plans are to open up new shipping routes so less dependent on Calais. Why would you want to belong to club that is so vindictive to any country wanting to leave? We do import many drugs but we also export UK drugs to EU countries. UK has apparently been stock piling drugs we import and EU countries like Southern Ireland have too.

Your post reminds me of Chicken Licken who believes sky will fall down if we leave EU. It will be more difficult for a year or so but medium term advantages to trade more globally with low or no tarriffs surely outweigh this.

[GoodStuffAnnie]

I believe that the most important foundation that our country rests on is representative democracy. It is the key to a stable society. People have to feel franchised and that their representative is “near” to them (they have to understand basically who represents them and how they can get rid of them, not necessarily that their individual vote wins). I believe this is why people voted to leave. They are disenfranchised and too far from their representative in the EU. Leaving the EU will lead to more stability for GB.

Two q based on this:

1. If we had a second vote what do the history books tell us about societies where a democratic vote is ignored? What do people do?
   

1. The EU is rigid because there is no representative democracy. They have no fear. How could we help them to change when the people who run it have no incentive to change/ fear of getting kicked out.

[caringcarer]

LaDaronne if these workers live in France and have done so for some time they can apply for French citizenship. That way they can remain working and living in France.

[GoodStuffAnnie]

Why do people believe everything their Government tells them? At what age should schools and societies teach people to be sceptical? Why do people assume that their Government has their best interests at heart?

[Quietrebel]

@caringcarer
The most common chemical for purifying water is salt
Are you talking about drinking water?

[YeOldeTrout]

Indeed, Wikipedia reminds us that DUP opposed the Good Friday Agreement. :( They didn't sign up to it, so no obligation to respect it, I guess.

[YeOldeTrout]

@caringcarer, tariffs aren't usually imposed on exported goods. That is one part you got right.

[Talkinpeece]

caringcarer
Why can't we leave on WTO terms which is how many countries trade and refuse to put up border and instead use the trusted trader and electronic scheme on Irish border?
The RoI will remain in the EU .... free movement for all EU citizens into the RoI
if there is no border between the RoI and the UK, then there will be no UK control of its borders
remember that ferries between Ireland and the UK have no passport controls at all
in fact free movement with the rest of the EU will carry on.
How is that complying with Brexit?

[TheyBuiltThePyramids]

Caringcarer - I guess you don't understand that some jobs are limited to EU citizens?

[caringcarer]

TheyBuiltThePyramids, yes I do understand actually as we own a house in France. However if you live in an EU country and have been there for some time as in working there you can apply for citizenship of that country if you want to.

[2beesornot2beesthatisthehoney]

Is it true that the WA whilst none in Parliament seems to like it does in reality could kick things down the road a couple of years for the same arguments to be repeated again. Ie not that really precise?

[caringcarer]

Talkinpeece, the deal May is currently offering is based on no borders in N.I. so immigrants will come in through Southern Ireland anyway. You would check passports at points such as airports and ferry terminals in mainland UK. If we do ever Brexit then immigration will be far fairer system as will work on skills of immigrant as opposed to country or origin.

[caringcarer]

Quietrebel yes sodium chloride (salt). A lot of our water coming from borehols is drinkable as it is with no treatment. Water needing most treatment tends to come from canals and rivers. You can also use heat and light treatment dependent upon what is in the water. Different areas use different methods to purify water.

[LordDenning67]

By whom and on what legal, (if any) mandate was the decision taken to trigger @50?

(could you comment on the imminent case being brought by Jo Maugham QC)

What legal liabilities will members of government face for deaths resulting from lack of medicine, food, vital services, transport, break down in law and order and racist attacks which will be inevitable results of a 'crash out with no deal' on 29.3.19.

Thank you.

[GoodStuffAnnie]

Lorddenning - on what basis are you using “inevitable”?

[Talkinpeece]

Goodstuff
It is a question for the experts tomorrow. Lets let them answer it

[Tiscold]

Well no I'm not going to disregard them because they may have voted differently.

However i want to know how the people who are telling me if brexitis good or bad have voted. Because yes they will be biased, everyone is biased so will let their personal opinions affect their judgement.

If i hate eggs you would like to know before i publish an article on how bad eggs are for you? Or if i own shares in fossil fuel wouldn't you want to know before i write about how electric cars are not right and can't work.