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Matched betting?! Tell me more...

999 replies

ExpatMrs · 08/04/2017 15:59

Just came across a good few MNers talking about it on another thread. I don't even know what it is but from the jist of the convo, there's good money to be made from having a couple of hours a day to do it... I have those hours!!
Can anyone enlighten me please?

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HeavenlyEyes · 15/04/2017 13:50

they do mention PA but I don't use PA and the group is great for advice. The link does work. This is the name of the group if searching it is easier
matched betting support by emma drew

There is also a good huge thread about MBing on the forum of the Money Shed which has loads of useful advice too.

edengarden123 · 15/04/2017 13:51

Yes the odds were just over 1.7 but I backed a football team to have a certain score by half time... I wonder could that be the problem... I'll email after

HeavenlyEyes · 15/04/2017 13:54

oh and I make at least £600 a month doing this, have done over £1k per month on a good month. I also work full time up to 50 hours a week so it is doable. Does get bit tougher once the opening offers have been completed but not impossible.

CalmItKermitt · 15/04/2017 14:02

Thanks heavenly!
That's pretty much what I'd be happy with! So how much do you reckon I'd need to keep in my Betfair float roughly?

When I click the link I get the "you do not have permission to view this page" message 😕

longtermsinglemummy · 15/04/2017 14:05

I struggle to work out what my profit will be on Oddsmatcher.

Is it the bit that says for example:

Bookmaker Win: £23.29

Exchange Win: £23.30

HeavenlyEyes · 15/04/2017 14:12

I have about £1K in my exchange. Started out with couple of hundred I think.

Longterm - what was stake and odds and was it qualifying or snr? - the calculator will tell you the profit.

longtermsinglemummy · 15/04/2017 14:28

HeavenlyEyes

Here is the info from the bet.

Matched betting?! Tell me more...
HeavenlyEyes · 15/04/2017 14:31

so £23.29 profit on that bet then

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 14:49

Ok, I am.now confused.

Type of bet: Lay
Odds: 6.40
Stake: 3.94
Liability: 21.28
P/L: 3.94
Won

Is my total profit £3.94 or liability + 3.94 or liability -3.94?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 14:51

Or 3.94 + 3.94?

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 15:02

ItsAll
You will make a profit of £3.94, because this value is either:

  1. The amount you win on your back bet - the liability you lose at the exchange
Or
  1. The stake you take from someone at the lay exchange (if your back bet loses).
ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 15:20

Thanks Maid, I was being an remit and couldn't figure out where all the extra money in the exchange was from - forgot my liability would be returned Blush

Quite chuffed with £3.94 up on a £5 free bet. Just have to see how all my others do this afternoon.

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 15:31

Ok, I'm going to have another crack at explaining betting/laying and how the calculators work to give you a profit. We'll use very easy numbers to illustrate.

A bookie offers odds of 2/1 for heads to win a coin toss. You put £5 forward to back this result. The bookie puts aside £10, because if you win, you will get your £5 back plus £10 from the bookie.

You have placed a stake and the bookie has put aside their liability to cover the stake they accepted from you
If you win, the bookie gives you £15, and is £10 out of pocket.
If you lose, the bookie takes your £5 stake and you are £5 out of pocket.

You can ensure that you don't end up out of pocket by making the very same bet with someone else, but this time acting as the bookie. You go to the exchange and find someone willing to stake £5 of their money at odds of 2/1, with you covering the payout should they win. This is called laying the bet. It is what the bookie did with your back bet and what you are doing with someone else's back bet. Your liability for this lay is £10, which you have to hand over to the other party if their back bet wins, along with their original stake. If they lose their back bet, you, as the bookie, take their stake.

So you have a matched bet. Whatever side the coin lands on, you will come out even, with no net gain or loss of cash. You will either: win £10 from the bookie/lose £10 at the exchange -or- lose £5 at the bookie/win £5 at the exchange. Zero sum.

Now the bookie tells you that you can have a free £5 bet on a second coin toss, same odds of 2/1. This time round, you don't put forward a stake at the bookie because it's virtual money. The bookie still has to set aside their liability of £10, to pay to you should your back bet win.

You go to the exchange to lay the bet. If you lay against a £5 stake at odds of 2/1, you put forward your liability of £10 against the £5 back bet of someone else.

Toss the coin. You will either: win at the bookies/lose your liability (profit £0) -or- win at the exchange (profit £5). This is not an equal outcome so not a good matched bet.

Can anyone see approx. what value stake you'd have to lay against at the exchange to ensure that you make the same amount of profit, no matter what happens?

Use the formula 'win at bookies - loss of liability = stake won at exchange'.

Hopefully, it will be obvious, with some mental maths, that you need to lay against a stake of £3.33. This will create a liability value for you of £6.66.

Win at the bookies - loss of liability = £10 - £6.66 = £3.34 profit
Win stake at exchange = £3.33 profit.

These two bets are matches. In the absence of such convenient odds to allow us to do this in our heads, the calculator tells you what the exact stake value you need to lay against to make the match.

Whisky2014 · 15/04/2017 15:32

But if you spent £5 to get the free bet..aren't you actually down?

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 15:35

But if you spent £5 to get the free bet..aren't you actually down?
But you layed your first £5 bet so that you aren't down.

HeavenlyEyes · 15/04/2017 15:38

if you back and lay effectively your qualifying loss should be minimal. This is why choosing low odds which are close together minimises the loss on the first bet. And why with the free bet you go for higher odds to maximise your profit.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 15:38

You need to lay every bet you make, not just the free ones. Anytime you don't lay a bet you are just gambling and That Is Not A Good Thing.

Whisky2014 · 15/04/2017 15:40

But you are..because you loose the initial back bet on the bookie and at the exchange. The first bet you put on the calculator works out at a loss. So I signed up to coral and put on £5 quid and whatever it was for betfair..I think £5.05. The calculator tells me I'm gona make a loss. And I do. So I have lost 5 quid. But I do get 20 quid free. So I place the back bet and lay bet and won £14.81. So what I'm doing is taking £5 quid off £14.81 and that's the true profit. Isn't it?!

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 15:41

Maid What do you bet on? Mainstream football only seems to be at the weekend? I spent half my free bets on horses, picking midrange odds, pretty names. I don't want to be gubbed, but Im not sure if only laying bets at weekend events is too restrictive?

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 15:43

I signed up to coral and put on £5 quid and whatever it was for betfair..I think £5.05. The calculator tells me I'm gona make a loss. And I do. So I have lost 5 quid
If you lost £5 at Coral, you must have gained £5.05 at Betfair.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 15:44

But you are..because you loose the initial back bet on the bookie and at the exchange

If you lose the initial back at bookies, you win at exchange (which you layed not backed)

The first bet you put on the calculator works out at a loss

It should only be pennies though. I mucked up the odds on my first bet, so am looking to lose about 60p overall.

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 15:48

Maid What do you bet on? Mainstream football only seems to be at the weekend?
Yeah, so far I've stuck to football. I haven't studied horse strategies, because they seem very complicated in the case of non-runners etc. Also, I'm not a fan of horse racing as a concept so possibly a bit of subconscious reluctance to contribute to the market Blush

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 15/04/2017 15:51

I'm planning on ditching the horses, I've lost one so far, so if my second one loses I'll "cut my losses" Grin

It was difficult finding good matches at the right odds before my free bets ran out. But then I only have one exchange and one bookie so far, I guess I'll hopefully have more flexibility as I continue to sign up to more.

HeavenlyEyes · 15/04/2017 15:51

you are meant to win in either the bookies or the exchange - if you do it right you don't lose in both

I do horse refunds - William Hill High 5 has been brilliant last few months.

Whisky2014 · 15/04/2017 15:53

Hmm ok i will trust you. That's good then i made more profit than I though! :)
I've been doing a mix of footy and horses. So that horse that just came in made me £19.17