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Original poster

Matched betting?! Tell me more...

999 replies

ExpatMrs · 08/04/2017 15:59

Just came across a good few MNers talking about it on another thread. I don't even know what it is but from the jist of the convo, there's good money to be made from having a couple of hours a day to do it... I have those hours!!
Can anyone enlighten me please?

OP posts:
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8
MaidOfStars · 14/04/2017 22:54

People need to check they understand laying/underlaying, otherwise this process is going to remain confusing!

If you make a free £30 back bet at the bookies and lay against nothing, you will either win at bookies/lose nothing at exchange, or lose at bookies/win nothing at exchange. Unequal outcomes = gambling.

If you make a free £30 back bet at the bookies and lay against £1 (massive underlay), you will either win £30 x odds at bookies/lose tiny liability at exchange or lose at bookies/win £1 at exchange. Unequal outcomes = gambling.

If you make a free £30 back bet at the bookies and lay against £100 (massive overlay), you will either win £30 x odds at bookies/lose massive liability at exchange or lose at bookies/win £100 at exchange. Unequal outcomes = gambling.

All the the calculators do is identify the amount you are going to underlay at the exchange so that your 'Bookie Win - Liability Loss' (if your back bet wins) is the same value as 'Stake Won At Exchange' (if your back bet loses). Equal outcomes = not gambling.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 14/04/2017 22:58

Equal outcomes = not gambling

Yy. If you care who wins, you are doing it wrong Wink

MaidOfStars · 14/04/2017 23:00

eden
Oddsmatcher will identify matches, flagged as RED GO GO GO Grin , where the lay odds are shorter than the back odds i.e. always going to generate profit. You could make any matched bet on this and win. If you had £10,000, stick it all into the back/lay, guaranteed profit (although would attract attention). It's called 'arbing', which is generally a risky thing to do, but I've checked/double checked that the Arab matches returned by Oddmatcher aren't so outlandish as to attract attention.

If it happens to be a qualifying bet for a freebie, happy days!

MaidOfStars · 14/04/2017 23:02

Arab matches? No idea what they are!

AllllGooone · 14/04/2017 23:02

imnot & vertical

You stars! Thank you

Verticalvenetianblinds · 14/04/2017 23:05

to be honest thats just how i go through life, making mistakes and just hoping it'll work out ok, i promise i'll do better next time Grin

its exhausting being clumsy and daft, i'll lay on betfair as much as i can afford and at least i'll get some pennies back.

thankyou for all your help tho ladies, otherwise id just be sweating about in on my own! on night shift tonight so no MBing for me, but plenty of time to read about it all a bit more (tho ive read so much and watched all the vids - i think my head might explode!)

edengarden123 · 14/04/2017 23:05

Maidofstars thank you. I just did my first ever bet.... and now I know what arbing is! Smile

MaidOfStars · 14/04/2017 23:35

to be honest thats just how i go through life, making mistakes and just hoping it'll work out ok

You're using child benefit. There's no need for mistakes. There is always a bet you can make to turn a profit. It doesn't have to be rushed.

Verticalvenetianblinds · 14/04/2017 23:43

oh i know, trust me. this is nothing compared to some of the cock ups ive made in the past. im still up on it all so far, and its only the end of day 2. but all my money is tied up now waiting for it to clear in the bank so im having a forced rest (and maybe trying some risk free casinos again!)

edengarden123 · 14/04/2017 23:59

Nooooo my bet in bet fair is unmatched.... I don't know what to do

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 00:03

You can only hope that it gets matched before the event happens. What is it?

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 00:05

Did you look at the £ value on the far right of the Oddsmatcher interface?

edengarden123 · 15/04/2017 00:07

I used oddmonkey, for my qualifying bet.

On betfair Tottenham v Bournemouth match, I layed Tottenham Half Time - stake 5.31, odds 1.68 liability 3.61

I'm guessing worse case is loosing 5.31+3.61?

edengarden123 · 15/04/2017 00:15

It got matched but I obviously need to make sure that never ever happens again!

MillieMoodle · 15/04/2017 00:37

Right. I've ballsed up the William Hill free bets as the qualifying bet I did was on too short odds so I've lost my chance at a free £30 there. Bollocks.

Can someone please explain to me why qualifying bets should be at short odds and therefore seem to generate a small loss (i.e. pennies) but the free bets can be at longer odds? Is it purely so as not to attract attention? Every time I think I've got it, I get confused. DH has got a spreadsheet which is melting my brain Confused

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 00:49

Qualifying bets are placed at short odds because

  1. If you win at the exchange you pay commission and we want this to be as small as possible.
  2. That's the context in which matches that are closest in bet/lay odds occur. The closer odds match minimises your qualifying bet loss.
edengarden123 · 15/04/2017 00:53

Why me??? No free bets at coral for me and they are verifying my ID.... no credits in paddy power account either.

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 00:58

Millie You will probably activate the free bet offer if you, in future, make a bet that qualifies. Check the T&Cs bit it's reasonably unlikely that you only qualify for a free bet if it's the first bet you make. You may have made a mug bet before you know it!

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 01:02

Free bets are placed at long odds because the longer the odds, the more % profit we can make.

Odds 2, 50%
Odds 3, 66.6%
Odds 5, 80%
and so on.

It's not a linear relationship, and the two variables - odds and % profit - will converge on but never meet 100%.

Which is why I have zero clue how Spookle made £40 off £30 of free bets.

MillieMoodle · 15/04/2017 01:05

Maid thanks for answering, but can I just ask:

  • I get what you're saying about the commission, but surely winning a little bit and paying some commission is better than losing even e.g. £0.50 per qualifying bet? I've done 3 qualifying bets and all have been losses; am I doing it wrong?
  • the bets/lays I have done at longer odds have all generated a (small) profit so does it not make sense to do a qualifying bet at longer odds too? (On the basis that as they're matched bets I won't really "win" or "lose". Or is the principle that we don't pay commission out of our "own" money but it's ok to pay it out of any "free" money?
  • I've checked the William Hill conditions; it's first bet only. Gah.
MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 01:22
  1. Not necessarily. It's normal to have a small loss in a qualifying bet In the qualifying bet, we want as little money moving about as possible. Smallest stake, lowest odds. This minimises loss, via commission on exchange wins, and general leakiness because lay odds aren't usually as short as back odds. (See my post above about the RED GO GO GO that Oddsmatcher sometimes brings up)
  1. See what I wrote about how we make profit from the free bet. It's not about commission etc. It's a simple, balanced calculation where:

Win at bookies + loss of liability at exchange = win at exchange

For very easy bets, we could calculate this figure on our heads, but for anything outside a 2/5/10 number, I need a calculator.

% profit is calculated as simply as above. Divide the free bet value by the odds, then take that number from the free bet value. It converges on parity for infinite odds.

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 01:23

And 3. Annoying Angry

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 01:27

Win at bookies + loss of liability at exchange = win at exchange
Hopefully, I shouldn't have to clarify this. But just in case...

If you plus a minus figure (bookie win is a plus, exchange loss is a minus), the overall effect is minus.

I'm sure you all know what I mean...

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 01:30

Win at bookies + loss of liability at exchange = win at exchange
The win at exchange attracting commission but it's too small to worry about in this context and our calculator has already allowed for it

MaidOfStars · 15/04/2017 01:33

If you plus a minus figure (bookie win is a plus, exchange loss is a minus), the overall effect is minus
And just to check this...I do t want confusion here.

A positive number (X) plus a negative number (Y) is subtracting Y from X.