@ofwarren thanks very much for starting another thread.
- https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/nicola-bulley-laughing-joking-just-26135864 How the phone and dog got to the bench
From article above:
She went on to say, the dog walker spotted Willow as she came through a gate onto the towpath but became suspicious when she saw the harness and lead on the floor. A man then came through behind her with his dog and spotted the phone.
"The gent has looked on the floor and two feet from the bench there’s a phone," she said. "I think she’s either been faffing about at the edge of the river because the dog’s been smelling fishing bait and she’s slipped or she’s had a medical episode."
[Does anyone know if this man came forward? An important witness, very clearly].
[933am to 10:50 dog tied up to the bench. Nicola last seen 9:10am in a different area, telephony data shows her phone was on the bench at 9:20am, was Nicola with it, we assume so]
[As woman witness came through gate, and presumably walked a few mins down this path, so 9:25am ? Depending where she came from. At 9:33am tied dog to bench. Dog tied to bench, then, for nearly, TWO HOURS.
Dog has collar and relatively large identification tag, certainly in other photos seen.
Woman witness, also interacted with people who it might be vitally important to interview, quite a few, the area was quite busy with dog walkers, (I am sure they have been as they have x40 officers on the case).
From article above:
She went on to say two other dog walkers later came across her phone and recognised the screensaver photo. She said they were unable to unlock the phone and contacted a friend who then called St Michael's-on-Wyre Church of England Primary School, where Nicola had dropped her two children earlier that morning.
Partner Paul Ansell was contacted and raced to the scene from the family home three miles away in Inskip, before calling the police, the friend said. "As far as I’m aware, no one called the police until Paul arrived," she said.
- https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21355157/nicola-bulley-ex-detective-says-in-river/
The former detective said that although Nicola hadn't been found near where police believed she fell in, it didn't mean she wasn't in the water.
She continued: "If she's then sadly gone over that Wyre it becomes tidal and then the possibility that she's gone out to sea is still quite possible."
Julie also explained why she didn't think there was a third party involved, despite part of the path not being covered by CCTV.
Press conference, 7th Feb
- Press Conference earlier in week: "This includes Nicola's Fitbit and her mobile phone, which has been fully examined"
- "We can say with confidence, therefore, that we believe Nicola remained in the riverside area. I understand that this is frustrating for those observing the investigation when the river has been searched and Nicola has not been found. That does not mean, however, that Nicola was NOT IN THE RIVER AT SOME POINT due to the TIDAL FLOW of the river. For this reason, our search of the river and the river banks extends out to the sea, particularly the area from Knott End, out towards Morecambe.
- "But it does remain our belief that Nicola sadly fell into the river"
- The police DO BELIEVE it is highly unlikely Nicola could have travelled to the sea from some parts of the river NB: "We have already discounted particular areas of the river"
- Scruffy red van and x 2 nefarious looking men, etc, a real danger MOST OF ABOVE possibly, soon forgotten/any other relevant details, if we look at previous examples of any high profile crime case you can just about think of.
- Given the woman witness, outlined in the first article above, came down the path and through the gate and tied Nicola's dog at 9:33am. (and this would have been her only viable exit route re: either, abduction or leaving of free will) [Please correct if wrong it is very hard to get to accurate data] Presumably, this means that the woman would have come down the path for at least 3-5 mins prior (?) & either seen Nicola, heard her/anyone with her in a criminal situation]:So, 9:25am to 9:30am approx? Depending on how fast she walked down the pathway and if the dog was fast/slow. Did she have a dog with her?
There was a man with this woman just after 9:33am presumably, which direction did he come from?
She went on to say, the dog walker spotted Willow as she came through a gate onto the towpath but became suspicious when she saw the harness and lead on the floor. A man then came through behind her with his dog and spotted the phone.
SO, the window of opportunity for Nicola to leave the riverside and/or be taken against her will, or leave of own accord is 4-6 minutes possibly and 10 minutes, more generously?
Meanwhile, Willow and her phone remain unattended for nearly TWO hours.
7th Feb Press Conference
At 8.47am, someone who knows Nicola saw her walking along the lower field with her dog and the two dogs briefly interacted together. At 8.53am, she sent an email to her boss. At 8.59am, she sent a message to a friend. At 9.01am, she logged onto a team's call and at 9.10am, we had the last confirmed sighting of Nicola on the upper field walking her dog. We know from telephony that her phone was located on the bench at 9.20am. At 9.30am the Teams call ended, but Nicola's phone stayed logged in and at 9.33am approximately, her phone and her dog were found by another witness who doesn't know her.
"On Friday morning, the 27 January, we know that Nicola was last seen on the upper field next to the river wire here in St Michael's. At 9.10am. She had taken her Spaniel Willow out for a walk and CCTV that we've looked at shows that Nicola did not leave either the Allotment Lane exit of that riverside area, nor the Rowanwater caravan park, which has been discounted, nor any of the other locked or areas covered by CCTV. As I've said, Friday, this only leaves the path along Garstang Lane onto the A586, which is not covered by CCTV, [where witness above, tied up dog at 9:33am so would have been on this track minutes before, and then came through the gate] but the more of those 700 or so vehicle drivers that we can identify who can confirm that they have neither dashcam footage or saw anything on that morning will help us to close that very small gap.
And we've now identified around 700 vehicles that drove through the village on that morning on the 27 January at around 9.10am 9.15am. And we're in the process of speaking to all of those drivers to try and find out if they have any dash cam footage, what they saw on that day or anything else that may be of value to the police inquiry
Also NB:
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11701007/Police-sniffer-dogs-search-river-perimeter-deserted-house-hunt-Nicola-Bulley.html
"Bizarrely, Willow was running free and the woman found the dog's harness on the ground next to the river.
She called her daughter-in-law who called Ms Bulley's long-term partner Paul Ansell, who dialled 999.
The woman, who runs a business in picturesque St Michaels on Wyre, said she knew of Ms Bulley and hoped nothing 'bad' had happened to her.
Speaking today, she said: 'I saw the dog and I recognised it, but I suddenly couldn't think whose dog it was.
'The dog looked worried so I tied her up and rushed home as I had to go to an appointment.
'I then went and spoke to my daughter-in-law and she immediately knew who the dog was, alerted the woman's partner and that was it - the police were on it"