Today's the day! What's your prediction - Bush or Kerry?

[tex111]

Unfortunately I think Bush will win again. I think the latest Bin Laden tape will actually help him and make the difference. What do you guys think?

Very sad to see that the muppet has been elected for a further term.

Throckenholt, I think you have a distorted idea of what "Americans" are like. I reckon nearly half of America is feeling pretty gutted right now.

I'm sure the British press will gleefully find the flashiest and most unflattering quotes from extreme religious righters who don't care about the rest of the world, but rest assured that lots and lots of Americans (every American I know) DOES care. And we're damned upset about how this election has gone.

Expatkat, it's heartening to me to hear that. Unfortunately most of my US contacts are in Texas, the heart of Bushland, so I don't get to hear the other side very often.

Just checked CNN - Bush:254, Kerry: 252

expatkat - do you think that a lot of the Americans who did vote for Bush were driven to do so through fear re homeland security etc?

Our votes (DH too, dual-citizen) were in NYC bc that's where we were last (have to vote in previous state resided in.

Kat, yes, I agree. A HUGE amount of Americans are probably terrified today.

Puff, good question, but I just don't know what was going on in those voters' minds. The few republicans I know who voted for Bush tended to be well-educated types who actually agree with his policies and claim not to have been swayed by fear. But, yes, I'm sure lots of people have bought into the myth that they could be safer under Bush. . .but how they could possibly buy into that myth, I don't know.

tex111 how many more votes to be counted?

Joolstoo, there are still hundreds of thousands of votes to be counted but, from what I can tell, Kerry would have to win a huge majority of the uncounted votes to win. I'm not going to stop hoping yet though. Stranger things have happened.

The Bush supporters I know do believe in his policies but, as I've said before, I am from Texas, the Bible Belt of the US, etc and I know a lot of extremely conservative people who do think that abortion should be illegal, that gays shouldn't be allowed to marry, etc, etc.

The thing I find most difficult is when someone expresses such ideas then when I point out that they are friends with my sister, for example, who is lesbian and christian and has been in a relationship for four years and why shouldn't she and her partner be allowed to marry, they say 'Well, that's different'! It seems that a lot of people support these views in a theoretical sense but only because they haven't thought about what it actually means in practice.

As a sideline, Tex, one of things that deeply disappointed me about Kerry is HIS belief that gays should not be allowed to marry. (So it's not just Bush!) Hearteningly, none of my gay friends were terribly fussed about this. . .they still enthusiastically voted for Kerry.

Yes, I was surprised at that too but I felt at least he compromised by saying that it was a state decision and not a federal one. I believe 11 states actually voted in favour of the amendment but none that really surprised me and that's still far from the majority.

I have a good friend, who is gay, with the same man for the last 4 years and they are getting married in Ireland in September (won't be recognized by the gov there, but...) Anyway, his partner was born in London and I understand there may be recognition of domestic partnerships of same sex couples soon in UK and they will be honored by EU?? Is that right?

But I digress. My friend is American and a Republican. He didn't vote for Bush, however. BUT he and I have had long discussions re: gay marriage, which we both support. His point: any politician to support it openly would alienate so many voters that they would never win an election. Sadly, I think he is right. This said, it is v possible that Kerry during his term (still being hopeful) would support law to promote the the eventual legalization/recognition of gay marriages.

Hadn't thought of that mommy2ro. . .I could never be a politician

I am so ignorant - if its currently 254 - 252 why is everyone despondent?

why is it likely that Ohio will choose Bush?

Agree, think any politician openly suppoting gay marriage and declaring himself an atheist would be committing political suicide in America.

not just in America Tinker!!!!

Kat, you could never be a politician bc you're probably a sane, good person.

I have never seen a politician I have really liked... altho in retrospect, Clinton seems so appealing right now.

I wasn't trying to slag off all Americans - there are obviously a huge number who would like things to be different (certainly all the ones on the sites I am reading today). I have friends and relations who are American and are probably very unhappy today.

But there are large numbers of Americans who seem unaware or uncaring of how their country impacts the rest of the world. The fact that they have virtually no near neighbours (compared to Europe) must help to bolster the view that internal issues are the only important ones.

I was struck by a BBC article that pointed out the 2 Americas - paraphrasing here, the "educated rich city people" - democrat and the "not so educated, not so rich country folk" - republican. No mention of the uneducated poor city folk who don't vote because they (probably rightly) feel that no-one is going to take any notice of what they think.

That article missed something: "the rich, educated, but narrow-minded" (sound like someone we know?? Hint: starts with a GW)

A HUGE number of republicans are so bc of finance. And yes, there are lot of very conservative (and very "christian") people who vote repub.

I would say, from my experience, that a lot of urbanites who struggle financially are Dem.

And Throck, you are right on re: a huge number of people who lack access to education, resources, housing who don't vote bc they believe they don't matter, and maybe don't even know how to vote. My sis works for the Nat'l Law Center for Homelessness and Poverty. So, for ex, a lot of homeless or people in shelters (for whatever reason) don't vote bc they believe you must have permanent residence. Which isn't the case.

tex, 11 states voted on amending their state constitutions. Every single state where it was on the ballot passed the amendment. The wording ranges from "Amend the state constitution to recognize marriage may be valid only when between a man and a woman; provides that a marriage from another state or foreign jurisdiction between persons of the same gender is void in Mississippi." in MS to "Amend the Ohio Constitution to recognize marriage as a union between one man and one woman; neither the state nor counties can give legal status to unmarried individuals whose relationships are intended to approximate the design or effect of marriage." in OH.

In MS this seems to be more of a statement, whereas in OH, the amendment removes any legal rights (eg parental rights for the partner, domestic violence protection) that are now in place for same sex couples (and common-law heterosexual marriages, which won't be affected, I don't think).

I am disgusted by those votes. And crushed today.

That's the BBC. The US press has paid a lot of attention to the huge increase in voting of the "poor uneducated city folk". . .and I think people actually do care what they think.

Throckenholt, I think you're right that geography is part of the issue but Canada does have a much more international view of the world and the US doesn't have the best relations with our own neighbors - Mexico and Canada. The big problem seems to be a cultural difference and I don't know what would change that.

JoolsToo, there are, at most it seems, 250,000 votes not yet counted in OH. Kerry is behind 125,000 votes, so will need at least 75% of those to beat Bush. The percentage is higher if there are not as many votes out. So it seems unlikely that Kerry can get it.

JJ - that seems hopeful. Fingers crossed.

Tex - good point re: Canada (and Mexico). I wonder why that is? I have to say I noticed a difference in global awareness btwn Chicago (still a good bit there) and New York. I have heard said by many a new yorker, "No, no. I'm not American, I'm a New Yorker." (For ex, my Irish HD who got US citizenship last year)

Mornin' all. I'm sure your all delighted to see me (not).

Anyway, I've just read all of the posts which I missed yesterday through this morning. Wanted to address one or two.

1- The reason Ohio is so important is because it has enough electoral votes to put either candidate over the 270 needed to win. So, whoever takes Ohio, wins.

RE: the number of provisional ballot votes. 250000 is the highest number being quoted. Some reports say there are only 130000-150000. If this is the case Kerry still won't win even if he gets every single vote. They have 11 days to count these votes, and Ohio has said that they are going to take 11 days to count them. So it has potential to drag on.

Regarding Canada, I wonder if it's because they still have ties to Britain and therefore think more globally. Did you know that Canada actually wanted to join the European Union?! Weren't allowed to in the end.