Today's the day! What's your prediction - Bush or Kerry?

[tex111]

Unfortunately I think Bush will win again. I think the latest Bin Laden tape will actually help him and make the difference. What do you guys think?

Plus Canada's links to France

Oh, of course! Thanks for reminding me. So they do have a lot of reasons to think outside their borders.

Oh, also, someone asked why the BBC was releasing stats before the US based networks. I don't know for sure, but I wonder if it might be because the US networks have agreed not to release results until after the polls out west close, so as not to sway the vote. And, the BBC of course, would not be under any such agreement.

Of course the US networks generally cheat and release them anyway, but I do think they behaved theselves on the exit polls this time (though it of course leaked out on the net).

Very despondent waking up this morning...

It doesn't look like there's any way for Kerry to win. The question is will he concede this morning, or let it drag on for 11 days?

I just saw on the news that in the southern states that passed the gay marriage ban, it passed by over 75%.

I've wondered something, and just thought I pose it here for debate, if there are any takers.

Has anyone heard any theories on why there was such a huge voter turnout yesterday? Is it just because peopl seems to feel very strongly one way or there other, so they got out to have their say? Perhaps it is because the race was predicted to be so close, so voters thought their vote might actually make a difference.

PS You'll all be glad to know that my vote for Bush was cast in Chicago so it was definitely a wasted vote. Perhaps I could move to Ohio (while still living in England)? Just kidding.

My feeling Uwila is that it's because of what happened in 2000, and the realisation that every vote does count (in some states at least). I'm glad that voter turnout was high, because it's usually so low. Dissapointed because weren't all these new voters supposed to be supporting Kerry.

Also just saw on the news that Bush picked up a lot of ground in the area of Florida where I live Tampa/Orlando). I could have told them that!

Uwila- Fox network had said that Ohio was won by Bush and then the head guy in that State (a Republican) that this coud not be confirmed yet...
WHy did you vote for Bush? If I may ask?

oh, there's lots of reasons. I'll try to be brief. And,I'll start by saying that I don't agree with all of his issues. Like, I don't feel all that strongly about, but I haven't got a problem with gay marriages. Also, I'm not anti-choice on the abortion subject (if it's taken care of very early).

But, mostly, I think Bush is a strong leader. Yes, he upsets other countries with his cowboy talk. But, I believe in his ability to lead and I will gladly follow him until the world is safe (or at least safer). On a more personal level, I think he is more dedicates to the safety and welfare of the troops. My brother is staioned in the Green zone in Baghdad, and I truly believe that the men and women of the US and other armed forces need a leader like Bush to protect them so that they can protect us.

I guess I just believe that what Bush is doing is the tough choice, but the right one.

I do not think Bush is perfect. But I think he's good. I also believe he's a "straight shooter" as they say in Texas. He means what he says, and he says what he means. So, even if I don't agree with every single stand he takes, at least I know who he is, and know that he will be the same man tomorrow.

Why isn't Bush trying to get the peace processs forward in Israel???? That would help!
I guess it is a question of whether Iraq is the "right" war... you seem to think so.... many of us don't (in terms of being a war that would help fight terror...) - what makes Americans believe that hitting Iraq hard would not make the terrorist fight a war everywhere else, I mean at the end of the day there are now over 100.000 dead iraqis (they say 130.000 innocents)... for what ?

" He means what he says, and he says what he means." - his command of English does worry me... LOL

ah, Isreal. I can't understand that one. I think that Arafat and Sharon should both be sent for a long long holiday on Mars. Israel should give back the land they stole, and those freaky suicide bombers should be sent out to sea to blow themsleves up all together and get it over with.

Okay, not really a viable solution. But, I think Israel and the Palestinians are both to blame. I don't see it as poor pitiful Israel. They are definitely contributing their share of aggression.

I do think Bush tried, but then Arafat showed he wasn't to be trusted, and Bush just gave up. I would agree that it is time for him to revisit the effort.

I also think this would go a long way to helping our own PR efforts in the middle east. But, then, this most certainly does not excuse suicide bombing into Israel. And Arafat could do more there...

heard on r4 this morning that the israelis are dancing in the streets at the result

the corresp. said that if bush could stand for PM there, he'd be elected in 5 mins

yes, well they are a tiny population with very few friends. So they are very dependant on the US. It's interesting though, why is this relationship so tight between Israel and US? I wonder if it's because of the need for the Jewish vote in the US elections? Are we (the US)dependant on Israel?

I really don't understand it... I must be missing something?

Because, whatever you might think about Israel, they are the only democracy in the Middle East.

Of course it's because of the Jewish vote. Israel is the biggest recipient of US aid.

Uwila, I hope this doesn't sound patronising but - you come across as sensible and thoughtful, very different from the image that a lot of mumsnetters clearly have of Bush supporters. So can I ask you to say WHY you think of him as a leader who is capable of making the world safer? Is that because of anything you could point to that he's done in the past, or more because of something about his personality, his aura, whatever?

I ask because your line on him as an international politician seems to be different from people such as those who KATG referred to, who are only concerned about America's safety. And they conform much more to the liberal stereotype of Bush supporters

Oh for goodness sake 'the Jewish vote'! How many Jews do you think there are in the USA? Hardly enough to make the least tiny little difference in the number of votes!

I always thought it was to do with jewish money - ie some very rich people who are happy to help dictate things in return for politcal funding.

But Bush has all his oil buddies for that doesn't he ?

Jews = 2% of the population apparently

Religious stats

Ah, I'll take that as a genuine enquiry to satisfy your curiosity and not as an attempt to patronise.

Have you considered that perhaps your take on Bush supporters has been influeced by a liberal media who has not been portraying us accurately?

I think Bush is much smarter than the way the media portrays him. I think he is a terrible PUBLIC speaker, and the media runs with it to make him look like a dumb cowboy. And WAY WAY WAY too much credit is given to his oil connections. But, we've already been through this topic, and I am really way too tired today to defend the integrity of Halliburton and the rest of the oil business.

I also believe in small gavernment. I think government is a very inefficient use of our hard earned tax dollars. And that is a very republican belief. So, I also voted for Bush becaue I believe in his domestic policy philosophy much more than the democratic trend to tax and spend.

Im soooo tired (I hope this post makes sense as I thinkI'm half asleep).

There was a programme some months ago on the links between the jewish community (in Israel and the US) with the extremely religious people in the US (mainly the bible belt)... it had to do with the fact that they had common interests and that the (some?) of the more pro religious leaders in the US were also extremly pro-Israel.... can anyone remember that programme ?

That's interesting and also a bit surprising because I wouldn't expect that from the bible belt.

Also interesting is that I think the jewish vote tends to go to the democrats.

I really have no idea about any of this. I'm just curious and enjoy an interesting topic on mumsnet... especially one where I don't get beaten up by everyone else.

Message withdrawn

Lisalisa - I know you have strong views on this issue and you are entitled to them. But it should also be possible to mention the importance of the pro-Israel lobby in US politics without being accused, implicitly, of anti-semitism. Or are you in favour of censoring any comment which mentions it?

in what way did Bush 'try' with the middle East process Uwila? to my recollection he has never even deigned to meet Arafat but has left it to Colin Powell .A few months ago he made it clear in a speech that he didn't even think it was worth attempting a return to the pre 6 day war land demarcations - in other words he was saying Israel could keep all the land they took in 1967 with his blessing. He has done absolutely nothing to forward the peace process and just this morning BBC Radio 4 quoted Ariel Sharon as saying ' George Bush is the best friend Israel ever had'. The Palestinians deserve better, and it amazes me that people are surprised they hate America more and more. Blair is equally bad - he has done nothing either.And as for the poster who said Israel is a democratic nation, think again.This is a nation which routinely stops, strip searches and humiliates Palestinian farmers at checkpoints, is stealing yet more of their land via the lie of the ' defence' wall, bulldozes their homes and bombs them in their homes in the middle of the night and deliberately prevents their ambulances from taking wounded civilians to hospitals. This is a nation whose leader has spoken several times of having Arafat assassinated. Oh yes, very democratic actions I agree.These are all facts BTW and not opinion obtained from the so called leftist press of the UK.Bottom line - until the west, Britain and the US specifically, stop backing Israeli incursions into Palestinian territory, there will be more Bin Ladens and more suicide bombers, and I am just waiting for the next attack on America or here in London.