What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

Jaysus coffee

If there is an agreement decided upon, and the DUP aren't 100% on board, they will print that exact article with the headline "Brexit terror warning: Unionist dissidents planning attacks for soft border scenario'

We had such high hopes for the GFA. And it has been working so (relatively) well so far. It's really sad to see that so many people are so happy to see it fucked into the sea.

The Sudeten Germans were found all around the border of Czechoslovakia (both of the old provinces of Bohemia and Moravia) and in many German speaking towns, as well as Prague, not just in the border areas near Germany. They weren't stuck in one particular region that got a line drawn around it on the wrong side by someone playing geopolitics in 1919. I know you didn't intend any Nazi allusions. What I am suggesting is that the fact of Nazi support rules out any comparison.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/08/brexit-deal-theresa-may-expected-meet-donald-tusk-two-sides/

I do not see how any of this - if accurate - can be acceptable to Dublin.

If I’m reading the terms correctly, the Ireland might accept it because of what happens in the absence of ‘agreed sooutions’. If that happens, then the entire UK agrees to maintain full alignment with the internal market and customs union, not just NI.

Which makes it feel like TM’s comment about us leaving the SM and CU sound slightly disingenuous.

here it is:

"In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation"

So, if the UK can't agree how to keep the ROI and NI border open and leave the custom union & Internal market, the whole UK stays in, including the 4 freedoms. IE we are effectively in the EEA.

Paragraph 49 fall back solution for whole of UK to remain in 'full alignment' with single market and customs union, if they can't get agreement on the north / south government agreements.

But not 'part of' the single market / customs union.

OK then....

Scrap that, it was Arlene Foster that said about leaving the SM/CU. In which case we can probably just assume it’s bollocks,

Hi, cross posted, and Ifailed and Rafals got there faster and with accurate copy.

All very interesting, I have really enjoyed having this thread to reflect on the news as it happens.

So if the fudge is to remain in aligned with the single market / customs union, but not in the EU, what we will have given up is any opportunity to influence policy within the EU. A great victory for UK sovereignty.

Just to be clear, I would rather remain, and will take this alignment with the CU/SM as better than nothing, but what.a.colossal.waste that ill judged referendum was, forced in response to pressure from the rabid right wing of the conservative party. Sigh.

But we have gained criminal checks, Finallyhere. Exactly how much use that will be with what appears to be an open border, I’m not sure.

It's better than it could have been. Still have no idea how it will work in practice but at least we've got this far.

I'm guessing that May has taken the gamble that when the brexitiers work out that she has effectively agreed to free movement of goods and people for the whole UK, and they threaten to bring down the government, she'll wave the prospect of Labour and Corbyn in their faces.

Yes it seems that the still have not figured anything out at all but have agreed to keep all the rules as regulations of the EU without actually have any influence over them as a default option. So essentially any of the 27 could force that option and then brexit literally only achieved removing the UKs power to influence the rules.....in other words the exact opposite thing ppl thought brexit would achieve

BeforeBrexit = seat at table moulding and shaping or vetoing rules.
Default option today= no seat in the room never mind at the table. Must agree to all rules and regulations with no influence or veto.....,

Well that's interesting. What a load of guff saying nothing. It seems to me that they can't work out what to do, so they are leaving everything as it is until they can work out a way to make it different

On another thread, someone referred to it as "sticking down one piece of the jigsaw with superglue, without checking where the rest of the pieces go".

I have just read Barnier's speech and he said:

"Unless another solution is found, the UK firmly agreed that Northern Ireland will maintain full alignment with EU internal market and Customs Union rules which support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy, and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement."

Did he mean to say the UK and said NI by mistake, or are the DUP going to be very pissed off?

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-5186_en.htm

I would say he meant NI as that was all the EU/Ireland could insist on due to GFA but another section says NI will align with all of the UK - so by default the whole of he ok would

YY. I just read the actual negotiation documents - TBH I'm quite chuffed we'll effectively be staying in the SM and CU - although I'm dubious about whether May will be able to get that past the UK government

Someone over on twitter suggested that this means EU citizens can continue to come to the UK (via Dublin/NI) but that UK citizens won't have the same freedom to travel to the other EU countries. Does that sound right?

BeforeBrexit = seat at table moulding and shaping or vetoing rules.
Default option today= no seat in the room never mind at the table. Must agree to all rules and regulations with no influence or veto.....,

Before Brexit: paying c£8bn net per annum for a seat at a table moulding, shaping or vetoing rules.

After Brexit: not paying c£8bn net per annum, accepting rules that we'd probably have accepted anyway, and the flexibility to walk away if things go in a direction we no longer want to be part of.

Post Brexit we'd probably still pay the c£13bn that we pay now (for access), but we wouldn't be handing over billions extra on top.

but we wouldn't be handing over billions extra on top.

and since we will not have any input to the rules we abide by, we may well find ourselves out of pocket on the way these payments are calculated, say as a percentage of our trade. Sigh. I've posted a link to our local fudge shop's mixed assortment over of Facebook, not sure how to do that here.

Happy enough with the agreement from what I've seen so far. It's in everyone's interests to move on to phase 2, and this seems to rule out a nightmare no deal scenario.

Varadkar looked like he wanted to break into song at his press conference

Made the mistake of going on Twitter and reading lots of people being annoyed about NI people retaining their EU citizens rights if they identify as Irish. This is not news! How can people still not understand that basic fact after all this time. Or am I missing something in the subtle details?

Yeah, was a bit surprised by the guardian headline saying NI citizens can retain EU citizenship. Of course they can as they are all entitled to an Irish passport (whether they identify as Irish or not - wasn't there reports of the DUP advising constituents te passport applications?)

The ignorance is indeed staggering. I suppose because we understand (some of) the complexities of the Ireland/NI issues, we sort of expect them to be common knowledge. Never underestimate the ignorance....

I keep thinking I have a handle on it Finally but I keep being surprised.

Just that people who care enough to comment haven't realised that basic fact...

No, I'm having a snow day, working in my PJs, Mariah is on the radio and I just ate a Malteser reindeer. They won't harsh my buzz.