What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

Could this have been the cunning plan all along, would a PM have been prepared to make it look as if she had genuinely tried to Brexit but had been scuppered by others?

This is my take on it all tbh.

Nobody gets to the top position in politics by accident, let alone a woman getting to the top - you have to be a wily & self-preserving type of character with a politically strategic mind & you've had to manoeuvre your way there past other ruthless people.

I think she's being underestimated by everyone, and is using her weakness & precariousness to her advantage.

She saw off Boris & Gove for leadership, and faced down Osborne & Shapps and come out on top; she's also forced Sturgeon, Khan, Foster, Labour & all the Tory hardliners (Leave & Remain) to play their hands this week too - they are all ruthless backstabbers and mostly considered to be at the top of their game at politicking.

Maybe I'm giving her too much credit, but it all feels off to me & it's probably exactly what I'd have done if I was ruthless & had the skin of a rhino.

I think in any other case I’d agree, faith. But being PM during Brexit was the poisoned chalice nobody wanted. Nobody was fighting that hard for it.

It might be her long list of u-turns on just about everything is some sort of long game but she doesn’t normally come out of it well.

I know that's what FOM is and it's why people have rejected it , I'm happy to say.

So Maryz now 'I am a selfish, a kind of bigot who doesn't want anyone else to come to Britain, and I ought to be ashamed'?

It seems that you are unable to exchange views without resorting to personal abuse and making judgements about other people's characters. I'm afraid it is you who are bigoted and the one who should to be ashamed and ignored...

I'm suspicious of what's going on here because on 8/nov Mr Varadkar told the Ireland parliament that all was on track for the next phase - the trade agreement - of negotiations to begin.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-eu-talks-progress-ireland-pm-leo-varadkar-prime-minister-a8044061.html

Simultaneously he was saying, a contentious paper on the border was as being circulated in the EU.

www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/1117/920981-long-read-brexit/

So was he was lying or he did not know of that paper???

^At the same time as the Taoiseach was briefing the Dáil, a paper was being circulated among EU ambassadors in Brussels in which was embedded an explosive suggestion that would raise the stakes on Brexit and Ireland to hitherto unseen heights.
The paper had been carefully choreographed between the Irish Government and the EU Brexit Task Force, led by the chief negotiator Michel Barnier. So Leo Varakdar was well aware of its contents and importance when he spoke.
The following day, Thursday 9 November, the paper was presented to officials of the 27 member states who were gathering in a regular Brexit Working Group formation in Brussels.
The paper was then leaked to RTÉ News, as well as the Daily Telegraph and the Financial Times. It said that the only way to avoid a hard border in Ireland was, essentially, for Northern Ireland to remain inside, or as close as possible to, the customs union and single market^

In this article, this journalist says the paper was 'designed to be leaked'.

So either Mr Varadkar believed that UK gov't would just accepts that it must stay in CU, contrary to all of what the UK gov has said. Or Mr Varadkar was lying to the Ireland parliament? This is quite risk taking, considering the fragility state of his gov't.

Perhaps MrVaradkar did not know about this paper when he spoke to the Ireland parliament. maybe the EU made this policy and then dumped it upon him?

Rafas, I have a niggling suspicion that Ireland & NI are being cynically played & used as pawns quite deliberately in all this.

The real power-brokers within the EU want a deal, the UK side wants a deal. It is in nobody's economic interests for a deal to not be reached - & as with everything, it's all about the money & about power.

The EU assertion that they're standing in unwavering solidarity with Ireland is just political posturing - when it comes down to it, they'll throw Ireland under a bus if the economic power & influence of Germany & France are ultimately going to be adversely affected.

WM are using NI in the same vein - they'll use them for political end, but will equally throw NI (& DUP) under a bus for the ultimate goal of a deal.

The people of NI & Ireland are (sadly & appallingly) ultimately inconsequential to the institutions of the EU & UK at the end of the day, no matter the worthy rhetoric that is asserted by all sides.

Yep Faith and don’t we just know it. They have never given a shiny shite about how their policies and their manoeuvres affected our lives and they still don’t.

Bossy The Irish govt isn't in a fragile state, contrary to the ill-informed nonsense that IDS, JRM and others are still spouting in an attempt to deflect attention from the precarious state of their own UK govt. Varadkar is in a pretty stable position. There was some political grumbling in Ireland about an internal matter (not Brexit), the Tánaiste resigned, and there's now no appetite or pressure for a general election in Ireland.

My take is that Ireland and the EU believed the leaked position paper would constitute a reasonable starting point for negotiations with the UK, because they believed the UK would place due weight on the GFA as an international treaty critical to containing civil unrest and violence within the UK's own territory. It was a reasonable belief.

Turns out the UK govt would rather prioritise its own party politics, and belatedly the preferences of an extremist minority party that does not hold a mandate from NI for its position on Brexit. Ireland and the EU were both a little gobsmacked by the poor grasp of diplomacy and political negotiation displayed by May.

It rumbles on. Ireland and the EU really do speak with one voice regarding the importance of the GFA. It's not Ireland being awkward on its own. It's not the EU pretending to have Ireland's back. It's an international set of experienced diplomats stating the obvious: international treaties must be upheld by the signatories.

Upholding the GFA means specifying in detail precisely how the NI border can remain open when the UK has left the EU. Detail. Not hand-wavey nonsense about virtual borders and pretending NI is like Switzerland. This detail was in the rejected proposal from the EU but is not yet forthcoming from the UK.

Arlene and Theresa are on the phone together right now, I would love to be listening in

Interesting. I'd say may has bigger problems than Arlene right now.

I'm not sure what they imagine Ireland has to gain by being less than straightforward about this, you be honest.

The EU assertion that they're standing in unwavering solidarity with Ireland is just political posturing - when it comes down to it, they'll throw Ireland under a bus if the economic power & influence of Germany & France are ultimately going to be adversely affected.

The priority of the EU right now is to ensure that Brexit doesn't precipitate further countries leaving the union. They are not going to want to visibly throw a member state "under the bus" because that would work entirely against that objective.

What MrsDusty said.

Quite aside from the European project, No one gains from a return to violence in NI. No one at all. Not ROI, not the EU and certainly not the UK, though they've well and truly buried their heads in the sand on this front.

It's just common sense and basic decency to protect the border. Why am I not surprised that the foolhardy brexiteers don't get that.

If the UK stayed in the customs union that would resolve the NI issue and it would also mean that we did not need to give up control of immigration (if we also stay in the Single Market, we do).

It would mean that Boris and Liam wouldn't be able to go around the world negotiating all their lovely trade deals (which will take decades) but it would resolve NI, save the UK government, the EU and businesses a lot of money, and would also resolve the Gibraltar problem that everyone keeps forgetting as well.

it should be possible to agree access to (rather than membership of) the single market on the basis of coughing up more £££, that lovely term regulatory alignment and still keep control of immigration.

Except that it won't please the Tory Brexiteers. I still think it will happen though.

But in addition, why would the EU want to foster civil disturbance at the border or in a member state? It seems to me that they can be believed in saying that they need to protect external borders and the integrity of member states.

iprefer there's a lot of sense there. Now is the time to face the Tory brexiteers down. They're nothing but lying shibags and they don't give a fuck about anything other than getting their own way. They're happy to sell this country down the river economically for two generations and risk a return to violence in NI to satisfy their own egos.

Enough is enough.

So Bossytits would you like to explain why you aren't selfish? Why you think it was right that the UK let you in, but that you are supporting a political movement to ensure as few as possible other refugees get in?

Do you not consider that to be a selfish, insular opinion?

I'd love to know the number of Brexiiters who voted for Brexit "to keep Britain British" who are actually first or second generation immigrants themselves. It's probably quite high.

As to your comments on Varadkar and the Irish government, MarDhea explains it well - the indication at the time was that May would go for special consideration for NI, but seemingly hadn't talked to Foster about it, which is just plain weird.

This isn't an Irish problem; stop blaming it on Ireland and put the blame where it should lie - on the government of the UK that hasn't a clue what it's doing, and the people who put them there.

I'd love to know the number of Brexiiters who voted for Brexit "to keep Britain British" who are actually first or second generation immigrants themselves. It's probably quite high

yes - and have then gone off to apply for the EU passport they qualify for, hypocritical arses.

Speech here by Sylvia Hermon (my MP), who is an independent unionist.

She has tabled an amendment requiring ministers to abide by the principles of the Good Friday agreement when implementing the EU withdrawal bill. Would love to see it pass.

I’ve been reading since the last thread and have been learning a lot.

I’m in Canada and didn’t know much about the Ireland and NI border and the GFA agreement before this and I can see now how the border issue is not solveable. Thank you to the regular posters on these threads for the education.

I just wanted to point out some things for anyone using Switzerland as an example of a border that “works.”

Firstly, it’s a real, guarded, border. Yes, it’s usually easy to cross, but it is a genuine border and crossing it is nothing like crossing between two EU countries.

Secondly, Switzerland does have free movement of people from the EU and it is a requirement for the rest of its bilateral agreements with the EU. Switzerland has a direct democracy and in 2014, a slim majority of voters voted to end the free movement of people. The government, who implement the results of votes, were completely panicked because to end the movement of people would end the trade agreements with the EU, which would be catastrophic for the Swiss economy. They’re still trying to figure out how to implement the vote. Anyone who is affected by Brexit should be following those negotiations.

One last thing, I regularly cross the US-Canada border. We have a free trade agreement with them (NAFTA) but no free movement of people. The border is a real border and can take hours to cross. It can also be shut completely. I cannot imagine that being compatible with the GFA based on what I’ve learned on these threads.

(I still can’t believe Brexit is for real or Trump for that matter and that the world as it is today isn’t just a dystopian novel or film)

There absolutely needs to be a referendum on the terms of withdrawal from the EU. People were not given the full facts about the reality of Brexit, the NI issue was just brushed aside and it was all going to be rainbows and unicorns loads of money for the NHS which we all now know is total nonsense.

We need to be absolutely clear on the terms of how this is going to happen, what impact it will have on our lives, our economy and our kids futures. The people of NI and Ireland need to have certainty that the GFA will be upheld and this must take priority over party politics. Although I suspect many Brexitiers couldn’t care less about Ireland and the very real risk that we could return to the past troubles.

I don’t know if a referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal is possible. There’s too many factions wanting totally different things. And there’s no guarantee that campaigning on this referendum would be any better than the last one.

If TM makes it that far she’s fucked anyway so a new referendum would be ripe for politicians using it as a base to start an election campaign.

According to John Curtis, pollster supremo, if there were Brexit 2, his polls show a similar result to that of 2016. Still Brexit. He was just on BBC R4 PM programme.