What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

Martina888 Mon 04-Dec-17 21:04:17
math:
ECJ anti-discrimination and SM laws prevent proper border control.
You can't stop them coming in, only can theoretically deport if 3 months without a job

The UK govt has always had that right. It's not a 'theoretical' right. You either exercise a right or you choose not to. Nobody forces you not to.

If it hasn't been exercising the right, then the right thing to do is ask your MP why not.

The stupid thing to do is leave the EU in a snit about something the UK government could have done something about, and then dig in and insist the right of free travel should be a sticking point in negotiations, meaning it is more likely that the UK will be completely cut off from the market of 200 million people next door, while turfing out tax paying contributors to the economy means less taxes paid to fund services.

Not to mention jeopardising the position of 1 million Brits who live around the EU.

Faith, I would agree that this car crash today surely must have been choreographed - except that Teresa May is the woman who made the DUP deal and announced it without informing the Queen, and the woman who ordered or at the very least countenanced those utterly stupid 'go home' vans. She has form for simply assuming that she has the right to drive straight through the Constitution without stopping, and that because she goes to church, perhaps? anything she does is done for the best motives. So I think she just thought she would bounce the DUP into it and hope for the best. Or something.

Martina888 Mon 04-Dec-17 21:07:11
littlegrey:
hardly, but just like most countries we want to be soverein, not dictated to by Brussels

What is your understanding of how trade deals with other countries will work, Martina? What do you understand of membership of the WTO and trading within the rules of the WTO?
Please refer to sovereignty in your answers.

Martina, you are Arlene Foster, admit it.

She's definitely not Arlene because she was arguing with me that it's perfectly reasonable that as someone born in the UK I should have to have a passport to travel to the rest of the UK.

Maybe she's Nigel Farage?

It's all so weird.

I have a picture in my head of TM turning up for her meeting with Junker today and saying "here, I've got it sorted, this is what we are doing", Junker saying "but what about the DUP" and TM looking at him blankly and saying "but surely they won't mind, it's the best thing for NI after all".

Followed by frantic phone calls.

It all just seems extraordinary.

I can't help thinking though, that TM mustn't, surely, be as stupid as she is making herself out to be. There must be some sort of under the surface plan - though atm the only one I can think of is that she's trying to get the not-very-well-educated-on-NI people in the UK (there are a lot of them) angry and trying to get them to blame it all on NI, Ireland, the EU and anyone but herself.

When she calls the inevitable General Election she will try to channel that anger by insisting she's the one who "stood up to" the EU bullies who tried to force the UK to stay in the EU.

Or something like that.

I think Theresa May is as stupid as she is making herself out to be. She's actually made me think awful thoughts such as "Maggie Thatcher would have done a better job", which in my family is a sort of heresy.

yy sincey - that's like dd being really pissed off yesterday at having to agree with the DUP

I believe deep down May knows the whole thing is a disaster. She is willing to piss the DUP off to force an election so she can jump ship like Cameron did after the referendum. No one in their right mind wants to preside over economic disaster.

There's definitely something off about it all - it's too convenient & also too obvious.

A special deal for NI was never going to be accepted, by all UK players:

Tory remainers who want to stay in SM at all costs (eg Anna Soubry); other high profile remainers who want the same (eg Clegg); people with vested interest due to who they represent (eg Sadiq Kahn, Nicola Sturgeon)

Tory Leavers & other high profile Leavers who are adamant that the UK is one, and all should be out of single market & customs union.

DUP who are adamant that they align wholly with UK position, whatever form that takes.

The EU & Ireland are the only ones who wanted/would have accepted this as a solution, and their reactions as well as everyone else's all seemed completely genuine.

I've totally got my tinfoil hat on with this...!!

The DUP has 26% of the vote in Northern Ireland not a massive mandate (and very similar to Sinn Fein's) they don't have a MLA or MP in a single border county and yet they are holding a veto over the whole Brexit deal. Arlene Foster is acting like the Prime Minister of Northern Ireland when she isn't even First Minister and to top it all not even all Unionists agree with her. Not to mention NI voted remain. No allowance for the will of the people here.

It's all a complete disaster.

So the real DUPs hold over TM is the deal that she did with them to stay in power.
But haven't they agreed the terms of that deal already? So surely they have to go along with it or hand back the ££££.

Coffeeclub they have received very little of the deal money so far. I think the real threat is the can collapse the government.

The more I think about this, the more I'm wondering if May and everyone else in government actually wants to avoid Brexit completely.

If we look at that infamous pie chart showing that only 26% of the adult population (or 37% of the registered electorate) voted for Brexit, and taking into account that most people who really wanted it would have made the effort to vote, and that some people openly voted for it to piss off the government, there really isn't a massive demand for Brexit.

It's not unreasonable to suggest that a re-vote might be for Remain.

I know politically that would be a disaster for the Conservatives - they've made their bed, they will be lying in it for a long time whether Brexit goes ahead (an economic disaster) or is cancelled (a political failure). If they can now push the blame on everyone else (the DUP, Europe, Ireland, whoever), they can try, whichever way Brexit goes, to hang on to their core voters. If they admit now that they cocked up and haven't a clue what they are doing they will lose that vote too.

So this all seems to me to be political obfuscating, just trying to confuse everyone enough to take the heat of the people who are firmly to blame in all this. Cameron, obviously (but he's disappeared), Boris (but he's made of Teflon), and May, who we are all meant to feel a bit sorry for, because she's the one left holding the baby.

Is the position then that basically everyone is in agreement, apart from the DUP who are insisting on their cheyse and pineapple on a staick, madam?

sluggerotoole.com/

A good one to read for commentary

It's not quite that simple berlioz.

Basically the DUP are being vocal about it, but in reality there aren't many people living in NI who would like to agree to having to show a passport (and possibly fill in a customs declaration) before travelling to England, Scotland or Wales.

It's not just the DUP who are being vocal about their not being agreement.

It's remainers, Leavers, different parties, Scotland, London, Wales etc.

Basically the DUP are being vocal about it, but in reality there aren't many people living in NI who would like to agree to having to show a passport (and possibly fill in a customs declaration) before travelling to England, Scotland or Wales.

But to be fair, and the nationalist are being vocal about it, although nobody is listening but in reality there aren't many people living in NI who would like to agree to having to show a passport (and possibly fill in a customs declaration) before travelling to across the border either.

So how do you square that circle?

I haven't yet read an actual possible solution that would satisfy nationalist, unionists, EU, WTO etc

I've come to the conclusion that plan A for the UK government is some kind of free trade deal that will allow unhindered movements of goods between the UK and EU. If they get this then the Irish border problem is automatically resolved.

Hence why they have been so reluctant to discuss the border issue and hence why when they have come up with a proposal it is something that hasn't been fully thought through. They don't expect anything they come up with now to still be relevant once the trade deal is concluded, and so haven't deemed it worthy of a lot of thought.

What they have failed to anticipate is that even if they don't think what's agreed now will matter, the Irish government and the DUP will.

Yy NotDavidTennant

I also wondered whether TM didn't want to agree to anything on the border in the hopes that she could then use it to force the EU to give us a free trade deal without free movement in the second part of negotiations. Also there is the Tory mindset that everything is about money, so settling the divorce bill would move things on.

NotDavidTenant that is quite possibly it but I think it's naive at best to think "kick it down the line and we will sort it later" is going to be acceptable.

What amazes me is WTO deals take years to negotiate not to mention all the regulatory things which would need to be put in place and the expense of this. If they walk away with no deal it's not like the EU deal will end at midnight and WTO take over.

The situation in terms of pharmaceuticals, food etc really need to be sorted now! We just haven't the time for kicking it down the line.

As for the it's the Irish border let the Irish man it brigade. Does anybody really think the WTO will agree any deals with an unenforced border.

The lack of understanding of the actual situation by Boris et al has me really concerned.

Could we really be facing a situation where we can't import/ export anything for a period of time until we get our regulatory affairs in order?

Could we really be facing a situation where we can't import/ export anything for a period of time until we get our regulatory affairs in order?

Well, its not impossible. Equally not impossible, is the lack of any credible sanction on importing cheap, but sub standard goods into the UK. Wrapping some presents for the DGC last night make me think. Since the first DGC came along, on both sides of tbe family, we have once or twice all been wondering whether a particular wish from one of them, was really safe. We have been taking EU rules as a sign of safety. Even if these were adopted, as a short term measure, who or what would have the teeth to enforce or fine those transgressing....[sigh]

Absolutely, MynewnameisKy, that's what we've been saying for all this thread, and the last, and most people I know have been saying since the this whole thing started.

There is no way of squaring the circle, there is no answer to this. The amazing thing is that yesterday May appeared to be saying she had one [baffled]

Oh yes, and medicine. Cheaper, untested versions [shudder]